NBA Best Bets and Bold Predictions: Bucks vs. Heat

Miami is a home underdog on Tuesday against Milwaukee.

The home team has won the last 11 regular-season meetings between the Bucks and the Heat. Milwaukee extended that streak when these teams met at Fiserv Forum in late October and Miami has an opportunity to keep it going at Kayesa Center on Tuesday in an In-Season Tournament game.

The Heat (10–7) are back in South Florida for the first time in almost two weeks after a five-game road trip that ended on a two-game skid. Miami dropped its home opener and has gone 4–0 in front of its fans since then. The Bucks (12–5) hit the road again after sweeping a quick two-game homestand over the weekend. Milwaukee lost its last away game to the Celtics a week ago to fall to 4–4 on the road this year.

Tuesday’s injury report is littered with stars: Khris Middleton (Achilles) and Jimmy Butler (ankle) are both questionable, Bam Adebayo (hip) is probable and Tyler Herro (ankle) is out.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Odds

Spread: Bucks -2.5 (-125) | Heat +2.5 (-110)

Moneyline: MIL (-163) | MIA (+120)

Total: 227.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-125)

Game Info: Tuesday, Nov. 28 | 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT

The Bucks have struggled on the road this year with four of their five losses coming as the visiting team :: Benny Sieu/USA TODAY Sports

Best Bet: Under 227.5 (-125)

Bold Prediction: Giannis Antetokounmpo to Record 15+ Rebounds

The first of three regular-season meetings between the Bucks and Heat was a high-scoring affair that saw Milwaukee come out on top, 122–114. Giannis Antetokounmpo put up 33 points and Damian Lillard added 25. Herro was the only Miami player who broke 20 points and he led all scorers with 35 in a losing effort.

At times, the Heat have struggled to even break 100 points this season and they rank 24th in scoring average (109.8). The Bucks have issues putting up points as they are fourth in the league (120.4) in that regard. However, their defense is uncharacteristically lackluster and currently ranks bottom 10 in scoring defense (117.5), which is something Miami excels at (107.8).

Milwaukee games hit the over at a higher rate (10–7) than Miami games do (7–10). With Adebayo expected to play, the Heat have a better shot at keeping Antetokounmpo in check and Herro’s absence could prevent this game from devolving into a shootout, the way the first meeting played out.

Even with Adebayo averaging a double-double, Miami is among the 10 worst rebounding teams in the league. That could open the door for Antetokounmpo, who’s coming off a game in which he recorded a season-high 16 boards, to have a big night on the glass. Antetokounmpo had just seven rebounds in that first meeting, but he’s had 10-plus more often than not this season.

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