Patriots vs. Steelers Week 14 Odds, Best Bets and Predictions

Thursday night’s game between New England and Pittsburgh has one of the lowest over/unders in decades.

Long gone are the days of epic battles between Tom Brady’s Patriots and the Ben Roethlisberger-led Steelers. Thursday night’s matchup in Pittsburgh pits Bailey Zappe against Mitchell Trubisky in a game with a historically low over/under.

New England (2–10) lost its fifth straight game last week and its third in a row in which the defense allowed 10 points or fewer. The Chargers, who were favored by 5.5 on the road, miraculously covered the spread in a 6–0 win. Pittsburgh (7–5) lost to the Cardinals 24–10 and lost quarterback Kenny Pickett to a high ankle sprain that required surgery.

The Steelers are favored by 6.5 points against the Patriots one week after they were upset by Arizona as a season-high six-point favorite. The over/under of 29.5 points, according to SI Sportsbook, is the lowest on record since 1993. That gives New England an implied total of just 11.5 points, which is just below its NFL-worst average of 12.3 points per game.

Patriots vs. Steelers Odds and Game Info

Moneyline: Patriots (+215) | Steelers (-275)

Spread: NE +6.5 (-125) | PIT -6.5 (+100)

Total: 29.5 — Over (-125) | Under (+100)

Game Info: Thursday, Dec. 7, 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video

Patriots vs. Steelers Best Bet: Under 29.5 (+100)

Bill Belichick and the Patriots face Mike Tomlin and the Steelers / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

New England and Pittsburgh Key Stats and Fun Facts:

• The Patriots are the worst team to bet on in the NFL with a 2–10 record against the spread; the Steelers are 7–5.
• New England is just 1–4 on the road this season. That lone win was in Week 3 against the Jets.
• Pittsburgh (-37) is the only team in the league with a negative point differential and a winning record.

Bill Belichick benched Mac Jones for Zappe against Los Angeles and the second-year pro turned in a pedestrian 13-25 performance for 141 yards against the league’s 32nd-ranked passing defense. An already limited offense also lost one of its most productive players when Rhamondre Stevenson suffered a high-ankle sprain that’s expected to sideline him for a few weeks. Ezekiel Elliott and DeVante Parker led the way on offense for a New England team that did not reach the red zone.

The Patriots’ defense is playing its best ball of the season as the offense makes a top-two pick look more like a reality with each passing week. New England has allowed just 26 points in its last three games and 15.4 per game during its current skid.

Despite the difference in the two teams’ records, Pittsburgh’s offense is not significantly better than the Patriots’. The Steelers rank 28th in the NFL in scoring average at 16 points per game. After firing Matt Canada, they broke their yearslong drought of 400-yard games but only scored 16 against Cincinnati and 10 the following week against Arizona.

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Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have both come to life over the last few weeks but they have a tough matchup ahead. The Patriots allow just 88.7 rushing yards per game, the third-fewest in the league, and they just held the Chargers to 29 rushing yards on 24 attempts. Trubisky is 0–2 against Belichick in his career and lost 17–14 at home as the starter in Week 2 a season ago.

Zappe was 2–0 as a starter before last week’s loss. New England didn’t score against the hapless L.A. defense and now Zappe is up against a Steelers defense that allows just 19.1 points per game and has 20 takeaways on the year.

The total in the 20s still isn’t enough to take the over. Only two Pittsburgh games and three Patriots games have hit the over this season and these are special circumstances with two backup quarterbacks starting in a prime-time setting against defenses that have played well as of late. 

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