Confidence Rankings for 2023 Bowl Season: Straight-Up Picks for 41 Games

Breakdowns and picks for a packed schedule of bowl games, which stretches from mid-December to early January.

College football bowl season begins Saturday morning and doesn’t let up until after the calendar turns to 2024.

For those competing in confidence pools, which require entrants to pick the winner of all 41 bowl games straight up and assign a confidence rating (1 being least confident to 41 being most) to each, SI Betting broke down each game.

Spreads can be informative for such an exercise, as it’s rather easy to pencil in a double-digit favorite as a winner, but with transfer portal news, opt-outs and coaching changes, there’s a lot more to parse in these postseason matchups.

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Georgia Southern (6–6) vs. Ohio (9–3)

Spread: Georgia Southern -3.5
Game Info: Dec. 16, 11 a.m. ET | ESPN

The Eagles dropped their final four games to end the season while the Bobcats won their last three. Ohio, however, lost quarterback Curtis Rourke, leading rusher Sieh Bangura and top receiver Miles Cross to the transfer portal. That kind of shakeup is difficult to overcome, but the Bobcats still have a top-five scoring defense to fall back on against Eagles quarterback Davis Brin, who tossed an FBS-high 16 interceptions this season.

Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 6

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R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Jacksonville State (8–4) vs. Louisiana (6–6)

Spread: Jacksonville State -2.5
Game Info: Dec. 16, 2:15 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Gamecocks can manufacture offense with dual-threat quarterback Zion Webb under center against the Ragin’ Cajuns, who clinched bowl eligibility by beating ULM 52–21 in its season finale. Jacksonville State has the playmakers to move the ball in this matchup and Louisiana might struggle to keep up.

Pick: Jacksonville State
Confidence: 9

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Avocados From Mexico Cure Bowl: Miami (Ohio) (11–2) vs. Appalachian State (8–5)

Spread: Appalachian State -6.5
Game Info: 3:30 p.m. ET | ABC

The RedHawks won the MAC title game behind the play of quarterback Aveon Smith, who’s in the transfer portal. That puts Miami in a tough spot against the Mountaineers, who are trotting out Joey Aguilar, who’s top 10 nationally in passing yards. Appalachian State was blown out in the Sun Belt Championship game by Troy, 49–23, but it has a chance to rebound against the run-heavy RedHawks.

Pick: Appalachian State
Confidence: 13

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Isleta New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico State (10–4) vs. Fresno State (8–4)

Spread: New Mexico State -3.5
Game Info: Dec. 16, 5:45 p.m. ET | ESPN

Before the Aggies dropped the Conference USA Championship to Liberty they had won eight straight and they can match a program-record 11 wins with a victory over the Bulldogs. Quarterback Diego Pavia is expected to suit up against a Fresno State team that limped to the finish line, dropping its final three games, and will be without coach Jeff Tedford.

Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 10

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Starco Brands LA Bowl: UCLA (7–5) vs. Boise State (8–5)

Spread: UCLA -4.5
Game Info: Dec. 16, 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC

The Bruins’ offense struggled down the stretch and quarterback Dante Moore entering the transfer portal doesn’t help matters. The Broncos also saw starting quarterback Taylen Green put his name in, though Boise State won its final four games, including a 44–20 win over UNLV in the Mountain West Championship. Without Green or Eric McAlister, the Broncos will be forced to lean on 1,000-yard rusher Ashton Jeanty.

Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 25

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Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: California (6–6) vs. Texas Tech (6–6)

Spread: Texas Tech -3.5
Game Info: 9:15 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Golden Bears got hot in November to secure bowl eligibility behind the play of redshirt freshman Fernando Mendoza, who led the team to three straight wins, including a 33–7 victory over UCLA. The Red Raiders also eked out six wins after a midseason change at quarterback to Behren Morton. Cal’s defense was an issue against the Pac-12’s tops teams, but it did find a rhythm down the stretch.

Pick: California
Confidence: 2

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Famous Toastery Bowl: Western Kentucky (7–5) vs. Old Dominion (6–6)

Spread: Old Dominion -2.5
Game Info: Dec. 18, 2:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

It’s unclear if Hilltoppers quarterback Austin Reed will play against the Monarchs with more than half of the starting offensive line in the transfer portal. Old Dominion won a couple of tight games down the stretch to lock up bowl eligibility but some of its top playmakers on both sides of the ball will not suit up against Western Kentucky. Monitor Reed’s status as his presence could swing this game, but stability under center gives ODU a slight edge at the moment.

Pick: Old Dominion|
Confidence: 8

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Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl: UTSA (8–4) vs. Marshall (6–6)

UTSA quarterback Frank Harris :: Mike Watters/USA TODAY Sports

Spread: UTSA -11.5
Game Info: Dec. 19, 9 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Road Runners are going for their first-ever bowl win against the Thundering Herd, whose starting quarterback Cam Fancher is in the transfer portal. That sets up redshirt freshman Cole Pennington (zero touchdowns, six interceptions) to go head-to-head against the experienced Frank Harris, whose top weapon Joshua Cephus plans to play against Marshall. Stability favors UTSA, which is looking to avenge its 2021 Frisco Bowl defeat.

Pick: UTSA
Confidence: 39

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RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl: South Florida (6–6) vs. Syracuse (6–6)

Spread: Syracuse -2.5
Game Info: Dec. 21, 8 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Bulls and Orange both picked up wins in the season finale to become bowl eligible. USF dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown will be a handful for a Syracuse team that fired coach Dino Babers before the year was over. Quarterback Garrett Shrader is coming off one of his best games of the year and he could be in for a big day against a Bulls defense that allowed 50-plus points three times this season.

Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 19

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Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Georgia Tech (6–6) vs. UCF (6–6)

Spread: UCF -4.5
Game Info: Dec. 22, 6:30 p.m. ET | ABC

The Yellow Jackets were last seen threatening rival Georgia in a 31–23 loss in the regular-season finale. Meanwhile, the Knights won three of their final four games after an 0–5 start in Big 12 play to clinch bowl eligibility. Neither team has been decimated by opt-outs or transfers, and UCF gets the edge with 1,000-yard rusher RJ Harvey going against the worst run defense in the Power 5.

Pick: UCF
Confidence: 24

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76 Birmingham Bowl: Troy (11–2) vs. Duke (7–5)

Spread: Troy -8.5
Game Info: Dec. 23, 12 p.m. ET | ABC

The Trojans and Blue Devils both saw their head coaches leave, for Tulane and Texas A&M, respectively, and Duke quarterback Riley Leonard is headed to Notre Dame by way of the transfer portal. Backup Grayson Loftis did see playing time when Leonard went down but Troy, the Sun Belt champ, has the advantage of stability under center and at key skill positions.

Pick: Troy
Confidence: 33

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Camellia Bowl: Arkansas State (6–6) vs. Northern Illinois (8–5)

Spread: Arkansas State -1.5
Game Info: Dec. 23, 12 p.m. ET | ESPN

The transfer portal hit the Red Wolves and Huskies hard. Arkansas State will be without some of its top defensive playmakers in its first bowl game since 2019 while Northern Illinois is down its top pass-catcher. The Huskies still have a 1,000-yard rusher in Antario Brown to lean on and a better defense that won’t be as hampered by recent departures.

Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 4

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Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: James Madison (11–1) vs. Air Force (8–4)

Spread: James Madison -2.5
Game Info: Dec. 23, 3:30 p.m. ET | ABC

The Dukes had a hefty overhaul after their charmed season with the departure of coach Curt Cignetti for Indiana and quarterback Jordan McCloud, who is in the transfer portal but still plans to play against the Falcons. Air Force, which lost its final four games, is dealing with injuries to quarterback Zac Larrier and his two top receivers.

Pick: James Madison
Confidence: 12

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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Georgia State (6–6) vs. Utah State (6–6)

Spread: Utah State -1.5
Game Info: Dec. 23, 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Panthers lost their final five games after a 6–1 start and now star running back Marcus Carroll is leaving the team via the portal. The Aggies, who clinched bowl eligibility with a 44–41 overtime win over New Mexico, were not hit as hard by transfer news and have momentum on their side against an offense that’s struggled to score as of late.

Pick: Utah State
Confidence: 11

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68 Ventures Bowl: South Alabama (6–6) vs. Eastern Michigan (8–5)

Spread: South Alabama -15.5
Game Info: Dec. 23, 7 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Jaguars will be without their two best offensive weapons as receiver Caulin Lacy is in the transfer portal and running back La’Damian Webb opted out of the bowl game. The Eagles are also dealing with availability issues as quarterback Austin Smith is in the portal as well, which sets up Ike Udengwu III to start. Eastern Michigan was one of the lowest-scoring teams in the FBS this year (20.3 points per game), which puts South Alabama in a good position to pick up its first bowl victory even without Lacy and Webb.

Pick: South Alabama
Confidence: 36

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SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: Utah (8–4) vs. Northwestern (7–5)

Utah’s Bryson Barnes is expected to play in the Las Vegas Bowl :: Jeff Swinger/USA TODAY Sports

Spread: Utah -6.5
Game Info: 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC

The final month of the season was tough on the Utes, who dropped three of their final five games after a 6–1 start. Injuries hampered Utah’s season on both sides of the ball but Bryson Barnes, who missed the season finale and is in the transfer portal, is expected to play against the Wildcats. Northwestern ended its surprising season on a high note by winning its final three games to improbably qualify for a bowl after a tumultuous offseason.

Pick: Utah
Confidence: 32

EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl: Coastal Carolina (7–5) vs. San Jose State (7–5)

Spread: San Jose State -10.5
Game Info: 10:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Chanticleers lost their final two games and then quarterbacks Grayson McCall and Jarrett Guest both entered the transfer portal. That means Ethan Vasko, who started in a 56–14 defeat in the regular-season finale, will lead Coastal Carolina against a Spartans team that bounds into bowl season on a five-game winning streak. Quarterback Chevan Cordeiro and running back Kairee Robinson will lead SJSU to its first bowl victory since 2015 for the Spartans’ second win of the season in the Aloha State.

Pick: San Jose State
Confidence: 38

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Quick Lane Bowl: Bowling Green (7–5) vs. Minnesota (5–7)

Spread: Minnesota -3.5 (-110)
Game Info: Dec. 26, 2 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Falcons ended their season on a 5–1 run while the Golden Gophers dropped their final four games and then saw quarterbacks Athan Kaliakmanis and Drew Viotto enter the portal. That means Minnesota, the only team with a losing record in a bowl game, will likely be starting Cole Kramer, a senior with 14 career attempts — and one this season, which was picked off. Bowling Green will be hurt by the departure of Ta’Ron Keith and its secondary is weakened as well but it’s still in a good spot to avenge last year’s loss on this same stage.

Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 5

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SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: Texas State (7–5) vs. Rice (6–6)

Spread: Texas State -4.5
Game Info: Dec. 26, 5:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Bobcats beat bowl-eligible South Alabama, 52–44, in their season finale behind TJ Finley’s second consecutive game with 350-plus passing yards and three touchdowns. But Texas State’s defense also allowed more than 100 points in its final two games. The Owls, with quarterback AJ Padgett taking over for JT Daniels, might not be able to capitalize on that weakness, though.

Pick: Texas State
Confidence: 23

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Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Kansas (8–4) vs. UNLV (9–4)

Spread: Kansas -12.5
Game Info: Dec. 26, 9 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Jayhawks are heavily favored to score their first bowl win since 2008 over the Rebels, who fell flat in a 44–20 loss to Boise State in the MWC Championship. Kansas lost its offensive coordinator and two starters on its offensive line but with Jason Bean under center and Devin Neal in the backfield, this offense should still be able to move the ball on UNLV, which has a dangerous weapon of its own in receiver Ricky White. Beware the Rebels’ exceptional record against the spread (10–3), but Kansas won at a high clip when Bean was healthy.

Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 37

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Military Bowl: Virginia Tech (6–6) vs. Tulane (11–2)

Spread: Virginia Tech -8.5
Game Info: Dec. 27, 2 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Hokies are heavy favorites over the Wave, who lost the AAC title game to SMU, 26–14. Tulane coach Willie Fritz left for Houston and was replaced by Troy’s Jon Sumrall and quarterback Michael Pratt’s status in doubt. Virginia Tech has stability on its side as some of its players who hit the portal still plan to play in the bowl and the team ended the regular season on a high note with a 55–17 win over Virginia.

Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 31

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Duke’s Mayo Bowl: North Carolina (8–4) vs. West Virginia (8–4)

Spread: West Virginia -6.5
Game Info: 5:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Tar Heels will be without quarterback Drake Maye and receiver Tez Walker against the Mountaineers, who are dealing with an exodus of their own. Even with Maye, UNC stumbled down the stretch with losses to Georgia Tech, Clemson and N.C. State. WVU, on the other hand, won four of its final five games behind the play of quarterback Garrett Greene.

Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 22

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DIRECTV Holiday Bowl: No. 15 Louisville (10–3) vs. USC (7–5)

Spread: Louisville -7.5
Game Info: Dec. 27, 8 p.m. ET | FOX

It’s tough to pick the Cardinals after the stinker they put up against the Seminoles in the ACC title game, but the Trojans aren’t all that appealing either without quarterback Caleb Williams and with one of the worst defenses in the FBS. Before Louisville suffered back-to-back losses, it was a top-10 team with a stout defense, so perhaps it can return to form against a USC team that will be missing some of its best offensive weapons.

Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 21

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TaxAct Texas Bowl: Texas A&M (7–5) vs. No. 20 Oklahoma State (9–4)

Oklahoma State running back Ollie Gordon led the nation with 1,614 rushing yards in 2023 :: Jerome Miron/USA TODAY Sports

Spread: Texas A&M -2.5
Game Info: Dec. 27, p.m. ET | ESPN

The Aggies have already had a whirlwind of an offseason and they still have a big bowl game against the Cowboys, their former Big 12 foe. Mike Elko was hired to take over for the fired Jimbo Fisher, but Elijah Robinson is staying on as interim coach through the bowl game before he departs for Syracuse. Got all that? Texas A&M was last seen losing to LSU, 42–20, and Oklahoma State fell to Texas, 49–21, in its conference title game. Having the nation’s leading rusher, Ollie Gordon III, is a huge advantage for the Cowboys’ favor, though the Aggies are tough against the run.

Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 3

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Wasabi Fenway Bowl: No. 24 SMU (11–2) vs. Boston College (6–6)

Spread: SMU -10.5
Game Info: Dec. 28, 11 a.m. ET | ESPN

The Mustangs lost quarterback Preston Stone for the year but freshman Kevin Jennings made his first career start in the AAC Championship Game and led SMU to a 26–14 upset against Tulane. The Eagles limp into the postseason having lost three in a row and their defense will again prove to be a liability against a high-flying offense.

Pick: SMU
Confidence: 40

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Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers (6–6) vs. Miami (7–5)

Spread: Miami -1.5
Game Info: Dec. 28, 2:15 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Scarlet Knights ended what began as a promising season on a four-game losing streak. The Hurricanes did close on a high note by blowing out Boston College 45–20 in the finale before quarterback Tyler Van Dyke entered the transfer portal and several key defenders opted out. Sophomore Jacurri Brown will start for Miami, which is 1–10 in its last 11 bowl appearances, against Rutgers, which has never beaten the ’Canes before. This is tied for the tightest line of bowl season, and for good reason.

Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 1

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Pop-Tarts Bowl: No. 18 NC State (9–3) vs. No. 25 Kansas State (8–4)

Spread: Kansas State -2.5
Game Info: Dec. 27, 5:45 p.m. ET | ESPN

Even with quarterback Will Howard in the transfer portal, the Wildcats are favored over a Wolfpack team that ended the season on a five-game winning streak. N.C. State isn’t unaffected by player movement, but Brennan Armstrong is set to start under center once again after a 300-yard, three-touchdown outing in a 39–20 win over UNC. Kansas State was one of the highest-scoring teams in the FBS this season but this isn’t the same offense without Howard, or his top two targets, tight end Ben Sinnott and receiver Phillip Brooks.

Pick: N.C. State
Confidence: 18

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Valero Alamo Bowl: No. 14 Arizona (9–3) vs. No. 12 Oklahoma (10–2)

Spread: Arizona -3.5
Game Info: 9:15 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Wildcats have continuity on their side with only a handful of contributors expected to be unavailable against the Sooners, who saw quarterback Dillon Gabriel enter the portal and offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby leave for Mississippi State. Arizona won its final six games and is in position to secure its first 10-win season since 2014 if it can outlast OU, which wrapped up the regular season with three straight wins of its own.

Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 26

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Taxslayer Gator Bowl: No. 22 Clemson (8–4) vs. Kentucky (7–5)

Spread: Clemson -4.5
Game Info: Dec. 29, 12 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Tigers and Wildcats both beat their respective rivals, South Carolina and Louisville, on the road in the season finale. That was Clemson’s fourth straight win while Kentucky put an end to a two-game skid. Opt-outs hit the Tigers harder than the Tigers, whose NFL-bound players still plan to play in the bowl, but Clemson’s late-season surge feels sustainable into bowl season.

Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 27

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Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: No. 19 Oregon State (8–4) vs. No. 16 Notre Dame (9–3)

Spread: Notre Dame -6.5
Game Info: Dec. 29, 2 p.m. ET | CBS

Both the Beavers and Fighting Irish will be without their starting quarterbacks as DJ Uiagalelei is in the transfer portal and Sam Hartman has his sights set on the NFL draft. Oregon State also saw coach Jonathan Smith leave for Michigan State and even its backup quarterback Aidan Chiles is on the way out. Notre Dame can survive on the back of its defense as its offense has a whole new look from earlier in the year.

Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 34

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AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Memphis (9–3) vs. Iowa State (7–5)

Spread: Iowa State -8.5
Game Info: Dec. 29, 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Tigers finished as one of the highest-scoring teams in the FBS, but their defense also gave up its fair share of points as well. The Cyclones, for the most part, kept their opponents in check in the traditionally high-scoring Big 12. Memphis does have the advantage of playing at its home stadium but shakeup along the offensive line could be an issue, especially against this defense. Iowa State’s offense also hit its stride in November, scoring 40-plus points in two of its last three games.

Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 20

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Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: No. 9 Missouri (10–2) vs. No. 7 Ohio State (11–1)

Spread: Missouri -2.5
Game Info: Dec. 29, 8 p.m. ET | ESPN

This line has moved in the Tigers’ favor since opening with the news that Buckeyes quarterback Kyle McCord is in the portal. Ohio State could also be without All-American receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., whose status is still unknown, but Missouri expects to have almost its entire team available as it builds on its best season in nearly a decade. The pending return of linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper could be big for the Tigers considering how many weapons OSU still has beyond Harrison.

Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 15

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Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 11 Ole Miss (10–2) vs. No. 10 Penn State (10–2)

Spread: Penn State -3.5
Game Info: Dec. 30, 12 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Rebels’ 17–7 Egg Bowl victory over Mississippi State doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence ahead of a matchup with the Nittany Lions, the third-best scoring defense in college football. Penn State closed its season strong with back-to-back wins over Rutgers and Michigan State and its only two losses were to Michigan and Ohio State by single digits. Ole Miss, on the other hand, lost big to Alabama and Georgia on the road, though opt outs don’t figure to factor in as much for coach Lane Kiffin’s team.

Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 28

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TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Auburn (6–6) vs. Maryland (7–5)

Spread: Auburn -2.5
Game Info: Dec. 30, 2 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Tigers and Terrapins both nearly pulled off upsets of playoff-bound teams down the stretch. Auburn infamously lost to Alabama 27–24 on a last-second touchdown and Maryland pushed Michigan to the brink in a 31–24 defeat. The Terrapins expect to have Taulia Tagovailoa under center as they go for their third straight bowl win under coach Mike Locksley and his presence could be the difference in a game with such a tight spread.

Pick: Maryland
Confidence: 7

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Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 6 Georgia (12–1) vs. No. 5 Florida State (13–0)

Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports

Spread: Georgia -14.5
Game Info: Dec. 30, 4 p.m. ET | ESPN

This game is sure to have a playoff feel considering how close the Bulldogs and Seminoles both were to final four spots. Opt-outs will see that neither team is at full strength, and FSU already lost starting quarterback Jordan Travis for the year, but coaches Kirby Smart and Mike Norvell both have something to prove on this stage as Florida State looks to go undefeated and Georgia looks to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time since 2018.

Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 35

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Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl: Toledo (11–2) vs. Wyoming (8–4)

Spread: Wyoming -3.5
Game Info: Dec. 30, 4:30 p.m. ET | CW Network/Barstool

The Rockets lost quarterback Dequan Finn to the portal after falling to Miami (Ohio) 23–14 in the MAC Championship. The Cowboys, who ended the year on a high note with back-to-back blowout wins over Hawaii and Nevada, are looking to send Craig Bohl out on top as he intends to retire after the bowl game. Toledo running back Peny Boone is the player to watch in this one, especially with the change at quarterback, but Boone was held in check in the conference title game.

Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 14

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ReliaQuest Bowl: Wisconsin (7–5) vs. No. 13 LSU (9–3)

Spread: LSU -8.5
Game Info: Jan. 1, 12 p.m. ET | ESPN2

It remains to be seen if Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels will suit up for the Tigers against the Badgers. His absence, though understandable, would obviously be a huge loss for the highest-scoring offense in college football. On the other side, Wisconsin, a more limited team on offense, will be without leading rusher Braelon Allen. Both programs have a knack for winning their bowl games, but the outstanding offensive talent for the Tigers tips the scale in their favor.

Pick: LSU
Confidence: 29

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Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: No. 23 Liberty (13–0) vs. No. 8 Oregon (11–2)

Oregon QB Bo Nix :: Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

Spread: Oregon -17.5
Game Info: Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET | ESPN

Heisman finalist Bo Nix will lead the Ducks against Kaidon Salter and the undefeated Flames, much to the chagrin of Liberty coach Jamey Chadwell. This should be a high-scoring affair as both teams average better than 40 points per game. Still, I’d be cautious about laying the points as this is the biggest spread of bowl season. Oregon’s talent should prevail, preventing a 14–0 season for the Flames.

Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 41

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Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: No. 17 Iowa (10–3) vs. No. 21 Tennessee (8–4)

Spread: Tennessee -8.5
Game Info: Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET | ABC

The Volunteers hung 48 points on Vanderbilt last time out in a resounding win. The Hawkeyes, widely known for their inept offense, were held scoreless by Michigan in the Big Ten title game. This might be a race to 20 points, which Tennessee is better suited to win, even against a dominant Iowa defense. The Vols will be short-handed on defense due to portal departures but the Hawkeyes are ill-equipped to take advantage of such a weakness.

Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 16

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CFP Semifinal Rose Bowl: No. 4 Alabama (12–1) vs. No. 1 Michigan (13–0)

Spread: Michigan -1.5
Game Info: Jan. 1, 5 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Crimson Tide have advanced to the national championship game in all but one of their previous seven CFP appearances. The Wolverines have been eliminated in the semifinals each of the last two years. Perhaps this year is different, as Michigan was truly dominant on its way to the No. 1 seed, but a date with an Alabama team that just ended Georgia’s winning streak is hardly a reward. Jim Harbaugh and Nick Saban met in the Citrus Bowl at the end of the 2019 season and the Tide dispatched the Wolverines 35–16.

Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 30

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CFP Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Texas (12–1) vs. No. 2 Washington (13–0)

Spread: Texas -4.5
Game Info: Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Longhorns left little doubt in their 49–21 throttling of Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game, plus they’re the only team who beat Alabama. The Huskies had a closer call in their rematch with Oregon for the Pac-12 Championship, but Heisman Trophy Finalist Michael Penix Jr. helped his team to a 34–31 victory, yet another close call. Texas can score almost on the same level as Washington but the Huskies are nowhere near the Horns’ level on defense, which might make all the difference in the playoff.

Pick: Texas
Confidence: 17

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