NFL Week 17 Saturday Night Showdown: Odds and Best Bet for Lions vs. Cowboys

Two teams that still have a shot at the NFC’s No. 1 seed square off in prime time.

The Dallas Cowboys (10-5) host the Detroit Lions (11-4) for what is expected to be a high-scoring affair. The game total is set at 53.3 at SI Sportsbook.

Both teams have already sewn up a playoff berth ... and both still have a shot at the NFC’s No. 1 seed and a playoff bye.

• Contest Line: Lions +6.5 | Cowboys -6.5
• Game total: 53.5
• Game Info: Saturday Dec. 30, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Lions clinched the NFC North last week in their victory against the Minnesota Vikings. With a win vs. the Cowboys on Saturday, they remain in the conversation for the No. 1 seed. The Cowboys similarly have something at stake. With a win vs. the Lions, Dallas remains in the conversation to claim the NFC East title and also has a shot at the top seed.

CeeDee Lamb leads the NFL with 109 receptions and is second with 1,424 yards :: Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports

The Cowboys are coming off a tough loss to the Miami Dolphins. Their defense allowed only 22 total points to the league’s top-scoring offense, holding Miami to just one touchdown last Sunday. However, it wasn’t enough, as the Dallas offense, notably missing Tyron Smith up front, wasn’t able to overcome costly goal-line mistakes, penalties -- or questionable refereeing, depending on your viewpoint. 

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At home this season, however, Dallas has been dominant. They are a perfect 7-0 at AT&T Stadium and they are 6-1 ATS as the home favorite.  Quarterback Dak Prescott is also a perfect 4-0 in his career vs. Detroit. The Cowboys have scored a league-leading 39.9 points per game at home this season, and their 30.1 points scored per game overall ranks second in the NFL. The Lions are one of the best-scoring road teams, averaging 24.8 points when away; for the season, their 27.5 points per game rank fifth. 

Defensively, the Cowboys also have the advantage, allowing only 19.1 points per game to opponents this season (fifth) and only 15.4 points per game to opponent's at home (third).  The Lions have allowed 25.3 points per game to opponents when away (24th). 

Expect Dak and company to attack through the air, as the Lions have allowed the ninth-most passing yards this season to opposing quarterbacks. CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson should all be featured in this matchup. Dallas will need to get back on track in the red zone, and the Lions have been tough vs. the run this season- allowing the fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs this year. It’s unlikely we see a lot from Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle in this game, but it probably doesn’t matter.

The Detroit offense will lean on a more balanced attack vs. Dallas. Expect David Montgomery and Jahmyhr Gibbs to get plenty of touches, while Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta remain capable options for Jared Goff in the passing game. The Cowboys have allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards to opposing QBs this year, while their run defense has been just middle of the pack.

Best Bet: Cowboys -6.5   

Don't overthink it. The Boys in blue need to get back on track. They won't lose three in a row, and they should cover the spread at home for a packed holiday crowd. 

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