College Football Playoff Predictions and Best Bets: Texas vs. Washington in the Sugar Bowl

The Longhorns are favored to beat the Huskies in a high-scoring affair and advance to the CFP title game.

The Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies played one another almost exactly a year ago in the Alamo Bowl. The Longhorns and Huskies meet again Sunday in the Sugar Bowl with much higher stakes this time around.

For Texas, this is its first College Football Playoff appearance and best season since 2009, which ended with a loss in the national championship to Alabama. Washington has made it to this stage before, but not since its 2016 loss in the semifinals, which was coincidentally also to the Crimson Tide.

The No. 3 Longhorns (12–1) won the Big 12 Championship in a big way in their final season in the conference. Texas blew out Oklahoma State 49–21 in the title game and beat ’Bama 34–24 in Tuscaloosa earlier in the year — the only blemish on its resume was a 34–30 loss to rival Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. The No. 2 Huskies (13–0) beat Oregon 34–31 to win the Pac-12 title, also in their last year in the league, behind the play of Heisman Trophy runner-up Michael Penix Jr.

Sugar Bowl CFP Semifinal Odds: No. 3 Texas vs. No. 2 Washington

Spread: Texas -3.5 (-118) | Washington +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: TEX (-188) | WASH (+145)
Total: 62.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Monday, Jan. 1 | 8:45 p.m. ET | ESPN
Location: Caesars Superdome | New Orleans, LA

Best Bet: Under 62.5 (-110)

Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers looks to outscore Washtington's Michael Penix Jr. in the Sugar Bowl :: Zachary BonDurant/USA TODAY Sports; Jerome Miron/USA TODAY Sports;

The Longhorns lost leading rusher Jonathan Brooks to an ACL tear over a month ago but they’ve still managed to move the ball on the ground without him. CJ Baxter, Jaydon Blue and Keilan Robinson have traded turns leading the team in rushing in the three games without Brooks. Texas romped for over 300 yards in a 57–7 win over Texas Tech and nearly 200 against the Cowboys.

Quarterback Quinn Ewers threw for a career-best 452 yards and four scores in the title game against OSU and he’s up against a Washington pass defense that’s struggled all season. Ewers threw for 369 yards and a touchdown last year in a loss to the Huskies, a career-high at the time. The Longhorns are one of the highest-scoring teams in the FBS at 36.2 points per game and they’ve shown they can outscore opponents with Ewers throwing to Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell or by leaning on a stable of running backs in Brooks’ absence — or both.

Where Texas sets itself apart in this matchup is on the other side of the ball. Its defense surrenders just 17.5 points per game and gives up 80.5 rushing yards on average. The Longhorns have been susceptible in the secondary, which could be a problem against Penix, the top passer in the FBS, but they’re set up to slow down running back Dillon Johnson. Texas has only allowed 20 or more points five times this season. Comparatively, it’s held five teams to 10 or fewer.

Washington is all about its offense. The Pac-12 champs average 37.7 points per game and the bulk of their production comes through the air as Penix supports two 1,000-yard receivers: Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk. The Huskies scored 50 as many times as they were held under 30 (three). That dangerous offense points stalled in November, a 22–20 win over Oregon State and a 24–21 victory over Washington State, but Penix returned to form in the conference title game with 319 passing yards.

It seemed like every week was a close call for Washington in Pac-12 play. Seven of its nine contests against conference opponents were decided by one score, including its final four games. Oftentimes, the defense was to blame. The Huskies allowed 32 points to Cal and 33 to Stanford, not to mention a season-high 42 to USC and 33 and 31 to Oregon. Allowing 23.6 points per game is not damning in and of itself, but ranking 120th in passing yards allowed certainly is.

The over was just 5–8 in Texas games this season and the 62.5-point total will mark a season-high. Even Washington, a team with a high-powered offense and porous defense, saw the over go 6–7 this season. Though the Huskies are accustomed to totals in the 60s — and even hit the over in a game with a 76-point total — hardly any of those games were against teams as stout on defense as the Longhorns. There’s still room for the under to hit in a game where these offenses trade shots back and forth given the lofty total.

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