2024-25 NBA MVP Odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Takes Control Over Nikola Jokic for Top Spot

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey previews the NBA MVP betting market, including the path for some of the top contenders.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

As of Jan. 23, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is running away with the NBA MVP award.

The Oklahoma City Thunder guard is averaging 32.0 points, 5.4 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game while shooting 53.0 percent from the field. He's led OKC to an impressive 36-7 start (the best record in the NBA to date) and all of that has come with Chet Holmgren playing just 10 games for OKC due to a hip injury.

Oddsmakers have moved Gilgeous-Alexander to -500 to win the league MVP (an implied probability of 83.3 percent), and it appears he only has one player that he needs to hold off in this market.

Latest Odds to Win NBA MVP in 2024-25 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -500
• Nikola Jokic: +380
• Giannis Antetokounmpo: +10000
• Jayson Tatum: +15000
• Victor Wembanyama: +20000
• Donovan Mitchell: +30000
• Karl-Anthony Towns: +50000
• Domantas Sabonis: +50000
• Jalen Brunson: +50000
• Anthony Edwards: +50000

To open the 2024-25 season, Gilgeous-Alexander was set at +600 to win the league’s MVP award while Jokic was +350.

If the Thunder continue to run away with the West, it's hard to see a scenario where SGA doesn't win MVP. He has led OKC to the top seed in the West for two straight seasons (if the Thunder keep that spot this season), and he's really come on strong in his last 15 games, averaging 35.2 points per game while shooting 56.9 percent from the field.

Outside of Jokic, there really isn't anyone that can surpass SGA at this point in the season -- unless the Thunder guard goes down with an injury.

What follows are previous NBA MVP award odds updates, which will be done throughout the season!

---

The 2024-25 NBA season is nearing its halfway point, and the NBA MVP race appears to be down to two players already.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is currently the favorite at -190 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook while Denver Nuggets center adn three-time league MVP Nikola Jokic is right behind him at +165. The only other players with shorter than +10000 odds are Giannis Antetokounmpo (+2200) and Jayson Tatum (+3000).

Entering the 2024-25 season, Luka Doncic was No. 2 in the odds to win the league's MVP, but wrist and calf injuries have knocked him out of the lineup. Doncic is not expected to play in 65 games for the Dallas Mavericks this season, meaning he won't meet the 65-game threshold needed for postseason awards.

SGA has an extremely compelling case to win MVP this season. After leading the Thunder to the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and finishing second in the MVP voting last season, Gilgeous-Alexander has OKC off to a 32-6 start and it holds a 6.5-game lead in the Western Conference.

SGA is also playing at a high level, averaging 31.4 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game while shooting 52.2 percent from the field and 35.6 percent from 3.

As for Jokic, he's going to remain in the mix for this award all season long. The three-time league MVP is averaging an astounding 31.2 points, 13.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game while shooting 55.4 percent from the field and 47.1 percent from 3.

In addition to that, Jokic has insane on/off numbers -- as he does every season. Denver is +11.6 points per 100 possesions when he's on the floor and -10.6 points per 100 possessions when he's on the bench.

We'll continue to update the MVP race as the season progresses, but barring an unforeseen run by a contending team, it appears SGA and Jokic will once again lead the balloting for the league's MVP.

Below is my preseason primer for the NBA MVP award, including the opening odds, picks and key trends to know when betting on the NBA MVP!

---

If there’s one award market that has a ton of intrigue in the 2024-25 season, it’s the NBA MVP, as five different players are +650 or shorter to win the award, including each of the finalists from last season – Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. 

Jokic has now won three of the last four league MVPs – Joel Embiid won the other – as he’s led Denver to a top seed in the West in each of the last few seasons while posting insane on/off numbers. 

When it comes to betting on the NBA MVP, there is more that matters than just on-court performance. In an award that’s voted on by media members, a narrative that helps propel the player in the MVP conversation is usually helpful. Plus, there is voter fatigue. 

One could argue that Jokic deserved to win the 2022-23 season’s MVP more than one of his others, but voters were hesitant to give him three straight MVP awards, which would have propelled him into a unique class. 

Jokic promptly went on to lead Denver to a title, capturing his first NBA Finals MVP.

In addition to voter appeal, the NBA instituted a 65-game threshold in the latest collective bargaining agreement for awards and All-NBA honors. 

While that threshold is almost always hit by some players, a star like Embiid, who is known to miss games due to injury or rest, is immediately a concern in this market. 

Will the Philadelphia 76ers let him play 65 games even if it jeopardizes his health for the postseason? Bettors have to factor in that risk when betting on anyone in this market, but players with injury history – Ja Morant for example – are much harder to justify when looking at the whole scope of the MVP race.

Jokic is favored to capture his fourth MVP in five seasons entering the 2024-25 campaign, but Doncic is right on his heels in the latest odds after leading Dallas to the NBA Finals in the 2023-24 season. 

Here’s a full breakdown of the NBA MVP market, starting with the odds and some important betting trends to know before placing your season-long wagers. 

NBA MVP Odds for 2024-25 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Nikola Jokic: +350
• Luka Doncic: +370
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: +600
• Joel Embiid: +600
• Giannis Antetokounmpo: +650
• Anthony Edwards: +1200
• Jayson Tatum: +1800
• Jalen Brunson: +1800
• Victor Wembanyama: +2000
• Ja Morant: +3000
• Stephen Curry: +5000
• Kevin Durant: +6000
• Trae Young: +8000

Nobody else on this list is shorter than +10000, including Los Angeles Lakers superstar and four-time MVP LeBron James (+15000). The full odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Key NBA Betting Trends to Know in MVP Market

Only four league MVPs have played less than 70 games since the 1977-78 season

• Joel Embiid in the 2022-23 season
• Giannis Antetokounmpo in the 2019-20 season (shortened because of COVID-19)
• LeBron James in the 2011-12 season (shortened because of NBA lockout)
• Karl Malone in the 1998-99 season (shortened because of NBA lockout)

So, even if a player reaches the 65-game threshold, it’s quite possible that they may need to play 70-plus to truly win this award. It’s not impossible (Embiid did it two seasons ago), but he’s the only player in nearly 50 years to do so in a non-shortened season. 

There have been seven back-to-back MVPs since 2000

• Tim Duncan, LeBron James (twice), Steve Nash, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic have all won back-to-back MVP awards.

Jokic has now won three of the last four MVP awards. Voter fatigue may feel real (it was in the 2022-23 season), but it’s not crazy to think that The Joker could win the MVP again this season. 

The MVP almost always plays on a team in the top three of its respective conference

• Since 1983, only Russell Westbrook (2016-17) and Jokic (2021-22) have won an MVP without being a top-three seed. They were both the No. 6 seed. 

So, when betting on this market, we’re not only looking for a player that is going to put up big numbers, but we also want someone with a path to a top seed in their conference. (That makes it tougher on long shots in the current odds like Trae Young, Steph Curry, Victor Wembanyama and more). 

Nikola Jokic MVP Odds

A one-of-a-kind player, Jokic is going to be a threat to put up a triple-double year in and year out because of his amazing passing ability from the center spot. 

Even though voter fatigue may be setting in for the three-time MVP, Jokic has a narrative around him this season: 

Many people expect Denver to take a step back. 

The Nuggets lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in the offseason in free agency, and Jamal Murray did not look good this summer in the Olympics playing for team Canada (Denver later revealed that he was dealing with an injury). 

So, does Jokic defy the odds and lead Denver to the top spot in the West? It’s possible.

If you want to know anything about Jokic’s value, simply look at Denver’s on/off numbers with him the last few seasons. Last season, when he was on the court, Denver was +11.6 points per 100 possessions. When he was off, the Nuggets were -8.4 points per 100 possessions. The same goes for the previous season – +12.0 when he was on, -9.9 when he was off. 

If that trend continues, it’s hard not to give Jokic a look for MVP. 

Luka Doncic MVP Odds

It’s pretty shocking that Doncic finished just third in the MVP voting last season, but he did miss out on hitting one of the key trends – Dallas finished fifth in the West. 

The NBA’s scoring champion from last season ended up averaging 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game in the 2023-24 campaign, arguably the single most impressive individual performance of any player. 

Now, he comes fresh off a Finals appearance with a lot of expectations on Dallas in the 2024-25 season. If Luka can lead the Mavs to a top-three seed, I personally think he’s the favorite to win this award. However, Dallas has never finished higher than fourth in the West in Doncic’s career. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander MVP Odds

If you’re looking for a leading candidate with a path to a top-three seed, look no further. 

SGA – the No. 2 finisher in last season’s MVP race – and the Oklahoma City Thunder are widely expected to be the best team in the West this season, coming in with the shortest odds to win the Finals of any team in the conference. 

OKC was the No. 1 seed in the West in the 2023-24 campaign despite sporting one of the youngest rosters in the league, and it added Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein to an already loaded core. 

Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t going to flirt with a triple-double like Doncic and Jokic, but he has averaged over 30 points per game in back-to-back seasons. If OKC runs away with the West, he’s going to be in a great spot to win this award. 

Jayson Tatum MVP Odds

Jayson Tatum deserves credit for allowing his numbers to take a step back last season for the greater good of Boston’s loaded core. 

That being said, it crushed his MVP case (he finished sixth in the voting) despite Boston running away with the best record in the NBA. 

The narrative for Tatum isn’t going to be there unless he really improves on last season’s stat line, as Boston is heavily favored to repeat as champions and has the best roster in the NBA. Anything short of the the No. 1 seed in the East may be looked at as a step back, which puts a lot of pressure on bettors who target Tatum in this market. 

Anthony Edwards MVP Odds

If we want to talk about narratives, Minnesota Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards may have the strongest pull in his favor.

After leading the Wolves to the Western Conference Finals last season, Edwards has been dubbed by many to be the next face of the NBA. 

However, Edwards needs to take a step forward as a playmaker to truly put himself in the same class as Jokic and Doncic. I don’t think it’s impossible for him to win MVP, but I’m also not sold right away on the Wolves repeating their success of last season.

Jalen Brunson MVP Odds

After the New York Knicks earned the No. 2 seed in the East despite a litany of injuries last season, there is an expectation that Tom Thibodeau’s squad will be right back in the mix for a top-three spot after adding Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns to the roster.

That’s a good sign for Jalen Brunson’s MVP case after he finished fifth in the league in the voting last season.

One could argue that outside of Jokic and Doncic, no player matters more to their team than Brunson. The question is, will he be able to repeat last season’s success despite having more mouths to feed in New York?

It’s going to be tough, and I think last season would have been the perfect storm of play and narrative for Brunson to capture an MVP, yet he still finished behind Jokic, SGA, Doncic and Giannis. 

While I don’t mind him at this price, bettors have to realize that he is further down the board for a reason. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo MVP Odds

Is health suddenly an issue for Giannis Antetokounmpo when it comes to the MVP?

Giannis has now missed back-to-back playoff runs with injuries, and it’s led to the Bucks being a little undervalued as a whole coming into the 2024-25 season. The path to a top-three seed in the East is far from guaranteed for Milwaukee, but it’s hard to discount what Giannis does on the floor. 

Last season, he averaged 30.4 points, 11.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game, finishing fourth in the NBA’s MVP voting. If he leads the Bucks to a surprise finish at the top of the East, he’ll have an argument to win this award. 

Joel Embiid MVP Odds

Listen, Embiid is going to put up the scoring numbers to be in consideration for this award, especially now that Philly has added another star in Paul George. 

The concern here is taking a player at +600 to win MVP who has played 65 or more games just two times in eight seasons and has never broken the 70-game threshold. 

That’s a tough sell when you’re betting on this award before a single regular season game has been played.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.