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Peter’s Points: 2024-25 NBA Season Predictions and Picks (Best Bets for NBA Championship, MVP, Futures Markets)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite futures bets to place for the 2024-25 NBA season.

Peter Dewey

Peter Dewey's Best Bets for the 2024-25 NBA Season.
Peter Dewey's Best Bets for the 2024-25 NBA Season. / Sports Illustrated

Grab your powder, wipe the bottom of your shoes, punch your stanchion, hang on the rim and get ready because…

It’s time to talk ball. 

Peter’s Points, my NBA/WNBA betting column here at Sports Illustrated, is back for the 2024-25 NBA season, and there are a ton of futures that I’ve placed for this season in just about every market that you can think of. 

The NBA had no shortage of drama this offseason. 

Paul George signed with the Philadelphia 76ers. The New York Knicks created the Nova Knicks, then tore them down for Karl-Anthony Towns. The Los Angeles Lakers have paired LeBron James with his son. The Denver Nuggets let a core rotation piece walk just one year after winning a title. Klay Thompson is a Dallas Maverick. 

After all of the moves of the offseason and the expectations that come with them, oddsmakers have set the futures markets for the 2024-25 season.

In back-to-back years, I have been able to hit the NBA Finals winner with a preseason bet, and last season Nikola Jokic allowed us to cash an MVP wager. 

However, the preseason futures market isn’t all about picking winners – and you’ll hear me say this throughout the 2024-25 season. 

It’s about establishing a position in the market now to hopefully corner the market – and guarantee a win – later on in the season. 

From the NBA Finals winner, to the MVP to the Sixth Man of the Year to team-specific win totals, here’s a full breakdown of every futures bet that I’ve placed for the 2024-25 season. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NBA Championship Predictions and Picks

Oklahoma City Thunder (+700) – 1 unit

If you followed my picks last season, you know that I took Oklahoma City at +8500 to win the Finals before the season.

While it didn’t come through, OKC earned the No. 1 seed and won a playoff series in the West. I was high on the Thunder then, and I’m even higher on them after adding two ideal scheme fits in Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. 

OKC should be right back in the mix for a top seed in the West, and at +700 is a solid bet since Boston is so heavily favored to repeat. 

Boston Celtics (+295) – 1 unit

What else can I say about Boston that hasn’t already been said?

The NBA champs brought back their entire rotation after running through the playoffs (16-3) last season. They’re a must bet at any number in this market. Simple as that. 

New York Knicks (+900) – 1 unit

I believe that the Knicks – if healthy – have the best chance to dethrone Boston in the East after building their roster almost perfectly to mirror the Celtics. 

The Knicks traded for Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns this offseason, some all-in moves around superstar guard Jalen Brunson. New York kept OG Anunoby in free agency, and it’s important to note that the team was 26-6 when he played last season

New York and Philly both have injury concerns, but it’s important to establish a couple of positions in the East – just in case Boston comes up short. 

Phoenix Suns (+3000) – 0.25 unit

Let’s get wild.

The Suns failed last season. They didn’t win a playoff game as the No. 6 seed in the West despite going 49-33. 

But I love what they did this offseason. Phoenix is much deeper, retaining Royce O’Neale and Grayson Allen while adding Monte Morris, Tyus Jones, Mason Plumlee and rookie Ryan Dunn. 

New head coach Mike Budenholzer needs to make the Kevin Durant-Devin Booker-Bradley Beal trio work in the playoffs, but Beal was in and out of the lineup all season with injuries. Phoenix is far from my favorite bet, but the West is loaded, which means we could see an unexpected team make it out based on the first-round playoff matchups. 

With Durant and Booker still arguably the most lethal scoring duo in the league, Phoenix is worth a sprinkle at this price. 

Indiana Pacers (+6000) – 0.25 unit

Getting +6000 odds on a team that made the Eastern Conference Finals – and gave Boston a run even without Tyrese Haliburton – seems too good to be true. 

I think the Pacers could end up winning the Central Division this season, which would likely mean they end up with a top-four seed in the East. This is a great price to get them at in the preseason. 

NBA Division Winner Predictions and Picks

Central Division Winner – Indiana Pacers (+390) – 0.5 unit

The Pacers are third in the odds to win the Central after making the Eastern Conference Finals last season, and I think they’re wildly undervalued.

Indiana will now have a full season of Pascal Siakam on the roster, and hopefully guard Tyrese Haliburton can avoid an injury after a hamstring issue cost him big time in the second half of the 2023-24 season.

With Milwaukee aging and the Cavaliers essentially running things back, I wouldn’t be shocked if the young Pacers value the regular season more than both teams and end up taking the division. They finished just two games behind Milwaukee last season, and are a much better team on paper entering the 2024-25 campaign than they were last year. 

NBA Playoff Predictions and Picks

Golden State Warriors to Make the Playoffs (-115) – 0.5 unit

I love Golden State at -115 in this market. It may have upgraded the roster by letting Klay Thompson go and adding role players in De’Anthony Melton, Kyle Anderson and Buddy Hield, and I expect Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga to take a step forward in bigger roles this season.

The key Warriors stat? They were 33-22 when Draymond Green played last season and 13-14 when he didn’t. If he can avoid a suspension, I like Green, along with Steph Curry and co. to sneak into a playoff spot – even if it is by way of the play-in tournament. 

NBA Win Total Predictions and Picks

Houston Rockets UNDER 44.5 Wins (-135) – 0.5 unit

Houston finished 41-41 last season under head coach Ime Udoka, but I’m not sold on four more wins in a loaded Western Conference.

There are 11 teams with win total projections of 39.5 games or higher in the West, and Houston is above both Los Angeles teams and in the mix with the Golden State Warriors, New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings.

Unless the Rockets make a trade, I’m not sold on a core of Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet doing enough to compete for what could be a top-seven seed in a loaded West. They may win more games than last season, but 44.5 is way too high of a number. 

New York Knicks UNDER 54.5 Wins (-110) – 0.5 unit

Call me crazy, but I’m not sold on the New York Knicks – even though they’re coached by Tom Thibodeau – winning 55 games.

Thibs isn’t going to give away games in the regular season, but the Knicks really hurt their depth in the Karl-Anthony Towns trade, and now Mitchell Robinson is out until at least January. 

If Towns or OG Anunoby, two injury prone players, go down, these Knicks are going to be relying on some interesting pieces to play major roles – similar to last season. 

55 wins is a major leap, especially since New York’s win total jumped two games after the Towns deal. An injury could all but crush the Knicks in this market, as they were 26-6 when OG Anunoby played last season (including playoffs) and just 13-16 without him. 

Toronto Raptors OVER 29.5 Wins (-120) – 0.25 unit

There’s a chance that the Raptors embrace the tank this season and completely destroy this bet. 

However, they have the talent to be a play-in team in the Eastern Conference with Scottie Barnes (an All-Star), RJ Barrett (who averaged 21.8 PPG on 55.3/39.2/62.9 shooting splits after he was dealt to Toronto) and Immanuel Quickley leading the way. 

There are obvious tanking teams in the East (Washington, Brooklyn and possibly Detroit), so maybe Toronto does take the play-in route over the tanking route. 

NBA MVP Predictions and Picks

Every year, there are three key trends that I outline in my NBA MVP preview, and I’d be doing you all a disservice they weren’t here as well: 

Only four league MVPs have played less than 70 games since the 1977-78 season

  • Joel Embiid in the 2022-23 season
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo in the 2019-20 season (shortened because of COVID-19)
  • LeBron James in the 2011-12 season (shortened because of NBA lockout)
  • Karl Malone in the 1998-99 season (shortened because of NBA lockout)

So, even if a player reaches the 65-game threshold needed to win MVP, it’s quite possible that they may need to play 70-plus to truly win this award. It’s not impossible (Embiid did it two seasons ago), but he’s the only player in nearly 50 years to do so in a non-shortened season. 

There have been seven back-to-back MVPs since 2000

  • Tim Duncan, LeBron James (twice), Steve Nash, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic have all won back-to-back MVP awards.

The MVP almost always plays on a team in the top three of its respective conference

  • Since 1983, only Russell Westbrook (2016-17) and Jokic (2021-22) have won an MVP without being a top-three seed. They were both the No. 6 seed. 

So, when betting on this market, we’re not only looking for a player that is going to put up big numbers, but we also want someone with a path to a top seed in their conference. (That makes it tougher on long shots in the current odds like Trae Young, Steph Curry, Victor Wembanyama and more). 

Now, let’s break down the picks: 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+500) – 1 unit

If you’re looking for a leading candidate with a path to a top-three seed, look no further.

SGA – the No. 2 finisher in last season’s MVP race – and the Oklahoma City Thunder are widely expected to be the best team in the West this season, coming in with the shortest odds to win the Finals of any team in the conference.

Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t going to flirt with a triple-double like Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic, but he has averaged over 30 points per game in back-to-back seasons. If OKC runs away with the West, he’s going to be in a great spot to win this award.

Luka Doncic (+370) – 1 unit

Doncic is the favorite to win the NBA MVP this season, and for good reason after he led Dallas to the NBA Finals in the 2023-24 campaign. 

The NBA’s scoring champion from last season ended up averaging 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game in the 2023-24 campaign, arguably the single most impressive individual performance of any player. The problem? Dallas finished with the No. 5 seed and has never finished higher than fourth in Luka’s career.

Can he buck the trend – or get the Mavs into the top three in the West? Regardless, he’s a must bet in this market heading into the 2024-25 season. 

Nikola Jokic (+400) – 1 unit

Impact and narrative are going to drive Jokic’s MVP case this season, and he has a lot of both. 

First off, Denver is widely expected to take a step back, so if the Nuggets end up with a top seed in the West, there’s a chance the voters will sway Jokic’s way again in the 2024-25 season. 

Then, there’s the on-floor impact. 

If you want to know anything about Jokic’s value, simply look at Denver’s on/off numbers with him the last few seasons. Last season, when he was on the court, Denver was +11.6 points per 100 possessions. When he was off, the Nuggets were -8.4 points per 100 possessions. The same goes for the previous season – +12.0 when he was on, -9.9 when he was off.

In terms of “valuable” there is no player more important to their team than Jokic to Denver. 

Jalen Brunson (+1800) – 0.5 unit

I think Jalen Brunson’s best path to win MVP was last season with the Knicks so banged up – and I know this pick contradicts my win total selection. 

But, if the Knicks do prove me wrong in the win total market and push 55-60 wins, there’s a chance they’re flirting with the No. 1 seed in the East.

Would knocking Boston out of the top spot – even though it’s widely favored to repeat – be enough for Brunson to win MVP? There is a narrative that could be made…

NBA Defensive Player of the Year Predictions and Picks

Bam Adebayo (+1400) – 0.5 unit

Arguably the best all-around defender in the NBA, Bam Adebayo is my favorite players to bet in this market. 

Last season, he made his All-Defensive First Team for the first time in his career – long overdue – and I think the market is showing that he could be the candidate next up after Wemby since he’s tied with Gobert in the odds. 

Adebayo isn’t going to put up massive counting numbers (which will make it tough for him to win) but he anchors a Miami defense that was No. 5 in the league last season and lost a key player in Caleb Martin this offseason. 

Since 2008, every winner has come from a squad that ranked in the top five in the NBA in defensive rating, which opens the door for Adebayo and could potentially hurt -170 favorite Victor Wembanyama since the Spurs were so bad last season when he was off the floor. 

If the Miami Heat repeat that success, Bam is going to get some consideration for the DPOY. Also, he’s extremely durable, missing 13 or fewer games in all but one season of his career. 

NBA Sixth Man of the Year Predictions and Picks

Malik Monk (+425) – 1 unit

I still feel like I was robbed in this market last season as a late injury ended up costing Malik Monk, but I’m going back to him in the 2024-25 season. 

Monk had a historic season off the bench, yet he has not won a Sixth Man of the Year award despite finishing the top five in the voting in back-to-back seasons.

I think that can change in the 2024-25 season, especially since Monk showed last year he can lead the bench unit as a creator too – averaging a career-high 5.1 assists per game.

DeMar DeRozan may end up eating into some of Monk’s shot attempts, but with Davion Mitchell traded away, Monk should be the first guard off the bench for the Kings again this season with a similar playmaking role. 

Donte DiVincenzo (+1200) – 0.5 unit

There’s a path for a Timberwolves player to win this award for the second straight season – it just may not be Naz Reid. 

The Wolves are projected to finish in the top half of the West again – which is huge since the last five winners of this award all were a top three team in their respective conference, and outside of Sixth Man of the Year icon Lou Williams, the Sixth Man of the Year almost always comes from a playoff team.

Donte DiVincenzo broke out for the Knicks last season, hitting 283 3-pointers while shooting 40.1 percent from 3.

He averaged a career-high 15.5 points per game last season, and he should play a major role behind Mike Conley and Anthony Edwards in the 2024-25 season, potentially starting on nights that Conley gets off. 

He’s one of the players that should play starter-like minutes off the bench this season. 

Bobby Portis (+1600) – 0.5 unit

Bobby Portis has been a finalist for the Sixth Man of the Year award in back-to-back seasons, finishing third both times.

The Milwaukee Bucks big man is as reliable as they come, and he’s averaged at least 13.8 points and 7.4 rebounds per game in each of the last three seasons. His role shouldn’t change much in Milwaukee this season, so I don’t see why he can’t be right back in the mix in this market. 

Miles McBride (+4000) – 0.5 unit

This is my longshot play, but after the Knicks traded away depth with the Towns move, Miles McBride appears to be ready to step into major minutes as the first guard off the bench on this team. 

Sound familiar? 

Immanuel Quickley was a finalist for this award in this same role just two seasons ago, and McBride is coming off a career year that earned him a new deal with the Knicks. 

If anyone goes down in the New York starting lineup, “Deuce” is a likely candidate to replace them and get some spot starts this season. He’s worth a long shot bet if he can shoot it as well as he did from 3 last season (41.0 percent). 

NBA Rookie of the Year Predictions and Picks

Reed Sheppard (+650) – 0.5 unit

Reed Sheppard put on a show during Summer League (small sample size, I know) and he should compete for bench guard minutes on a young Houston team. 

In fact, I think he’s one of the more complete players in this draft, even though he’s going to be in a battle for playing time. 

The Rockets have Fred VanVleet, Amen Thompson, Jalen Green, Aaron Holiday, Dillon Brooks and others competing for minutes at the one and two spots, which could make his role a little inconsistent at times.

Still, I wouldn’t be shocked if FVV misses a few games (65, 69 and 73 games played the last three seasons), and Sheppard is a strong defender (averaged 2.5 steals per game in his lone college season), which should appeal to Ime Udoka. 

A great shooter at Kentucky (Sheppard shot 52.1 percent from 3), Sheppard has the tools to win this award if he gets the playing time. 

Carlton Carrington (+1100) – 0.5 unit

Cartlon “Bub” Carrington is one of my favorite targets in this market, partially because he’s playing on a bad Washington Wizards team that let guard Tyus Jones walk this offseason.

Could Carrington walk into a starting role alongside Jordan Poole? Malcolm Brogdon is in the way, but the Wizards should be 100 percent prioritizing their development this season.  

After a strong Summer League, Carrington’s odds have surged in this market, and he’s an attractive player to bet +1100. 

Zaccharie Risacher (+900) – 0.25 unit

I may come to regret this bet since the Hawks have some wing depth in Dyson Daniels, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter and Jalen Johnson, but Risacher impressed in his preseason debut and may command a larger role than initially expected this season. 

The Hawks have no reason to tank, but they could look to unload Bogdanovic or Hunter during the season, which would open up more time for Risacher. If Atlanta wants to succeed with this core, it likely is with a Young-Daniels-Risacher-Johnson-Okongwu lineup. 

At +900 – for a No. 1 overall pick – Risacher is worth a sprinkle in a wide open market. 

NBA Most Improved Player Predictions and Picks

Victor Wembanyama (+750) – 0.5 unit

Since the 2019-20 season, each winner of the MIP (Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle, Ja Morant, Lauri Markkanen and Tyrese Maxey) all earned their first All-Star berth the season they won this award.

Enter: Wemby.

I’m not really sure how a player still on his rookie deal could win this award, but Morant and Maxey have already done it, and Wemby could take a massive leap in his second season. 

Barring injury, he’s a lock to earn an All-Star nod, and he finished the 2023-24 season averaging 23.7 points, 12.0 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.0 steal and 4.4 blocks per game in March and April. If he’s anywhere near those numbers – or better – for the entire 2024-25 season, it’s going to be hard to argue that he’s not the “most improved.”

Going from a non-All-Star to an All-NBA player would probably be enough for voters to just side with the favorite.

Jalen Williams (+1700) -- 0.5 unit

If there's another player with a clear path to his first All-Star Game appearance, it's Oklahoma City Thunder wing Jalen Williams.

The addition of Alex Caruso for Josh Giddey should help Williams two fold. He should have even more time with the ball in his hands on offense, and he won't always be tasked with guarding the team's best wing on the defensive end.

After finishing second in the Rookie of the Year voting two seasons ago, Williams increased his points per game 5.0 and his assists per game by 1.2 in his sophomore season while flirting with a 50/40/90 season (54.0/42.7/81.4).

He may not go from 19.1 points per game to 24.1, but a leap to 22.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists (he averaged 4.5 dimes last season) isn't crazy. With the Thunder widely expected to be one of the best teams in the league, they may get two All-Star selections, which would further Williams' case for MIP.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

Published
Peter Dewey
PETER DEWEY

Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.

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