2024 AL MVP Odds: Aaron Judge Overwhelming Favorite in Two-Man Race with Gunnar Henderson

Reed Wallach | Jun 29, 2024

Jun 20, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge (99) reacts after hitting a two-run home run against the Baltimore Orioles during the third inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-USA TODAY Sports / John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

Aaron Judge has erased a slow start to the season and is back to playing at a historic rate. 

The 2024 MLB season is at about the halfway point, but still in the month of June, and Judge is putting up a stat line that would resemble a strong full season effort from a player. The Yankees outfielder and 2022 AL MVP has crushed 30 home runs this season and is hitting .310 on the year. 

With such a torrid stretch, Judge has separated from the pack in the AL MVP odds, which you can find below, with it becoming a two-man race for the award. 

2024 AL MVP Odds

• Aaron Judge: -220
• Gunnar Henderson: +320
• Juan Soto: +1000
• Bobby Witt Jr.: +2200
• Jose Ramirez: +3200

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Aaron Judge Overwhelming Favorite to Win AL MVP 

Judge leads the big leagues in home runs and RBI’s for the first place in the AL East Yankees. Despite the team mired in a minor slump, losers of seven of 10, Judge continues to produce at a high clip that has pushed his odds out to -220. 

-220 translates to an implied probability of 68.75%. 

So, who can catch Judge? It appears only one player can, and that’s last year’s AL Rookie of the Year, Gunnar Henderson. 

Henderson, the Baltimore Orioles shortstop, is playing at a high level, actually outpacing Judge in terms of FanGraph’s WAR rating, 6.0 vs. 5.7. The second year pro has crushed 26 home runs with 58 runs batted in to go with a .290 batting average. 

Juan Soto and Bobby Witt Jr. have both fallen off the pace that each player has set at the top, making this a two-man race for the AL MVP. 

While Henderson is crushing the ball, it’s hard for him to keep up with Judge’s 60 home run pace as the Yankees and Orioles head into a summer long race for the AL East. The Orioles have played two fewer games than the Yankees while posting one fewer win and loss than New York. 

Could an AL East crown potentially shift the MVP market? For now, it’s Judge’s to lose as we continue into the second half of the 2024 season. 

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.