2024 British Open Score Predictions: How the Top Golfers Will Fare at Royal Troon

This week offers one final opportunity for major glory in 2024.

Rory McIlroy will attempt to break his 10-year drought at majors this week. / Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

It's that time of week where I take my predictions for a golf tournament one step further. Not only am I going to predict the winner, but I'm going to attempt to predict what the winning score will be along with the final score of the top 10 golfers on the odds list.

The eyes of the golf world will be on Royal Troon this week for the final men's major golf tournament of 2024, the British Open. Let's see how close I can get with my score predictions.

All odds referenced in this article are via BetMGM Sportsbook

British Open score predictions

Winning score: -11

We need to dismiss the 20 under par that Henrik Stenson posted when he won the Open at Royal Troon in 2016. He put on one of the most impressive performances in major championship history and Phil Mickelson, who finished second at 17 under par, had one of the best performances of someone who didn't end up victorious.

Third place that year was J.B. Holmes at 6 under par and I think we should look to the 2004 and 1997 Opens at Royal Troon for a more accurate example of what this year's final score will be. Todd Hamilton won in 2004 at 10 under in a playoff against Ernie Els and Justin Leonard won it in 1997 with a score of 12 under.

I'm going to predict the winning score this week ends up sandwiched between those two numbers at 11 under par.

Scottie Scheffler (+500) score prediction: -8

Scottie Scheffler reminded everyone he's the No. 1 golfer in the world in his last start, winning the Travelers Championship a week after finishing T41 at the U.S. Open. You already know how good Scheffler is, but is his game suited for links golf enough to win this event? The Open has been his worst of the four majors, finishing T8, T21, and T23 in his three appearances.

My prediction for Scheffler is he'll post his best Open finish, but it ultimately won't be good enough to win.

Rory McIlroy (+800) score prediction: -10

Another heartbreak finish for the Irishman would be tough to watch, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's exactly what we see. He has enough skill and talent to be stacking up majors on an almost yearly basis, but you can't discount the demons he's battling in these spots. It's going to take a herculean psychological effort to beat those demons and put the finishing touch on the back nine on a Sunday at a major championship. I think he falls just short once again.

Ludvig Aberg (+1200) score prediction: -2

Ludvig Aberg is going to be a popular pick this week, but we have to remember he hasn't shot lower than a 70 on a Sunday at an event since the Masters. He has had issues closing out tournaments and I'm not fully convinced that his style of play fits Royal Troon as well as it needs to. I'm staying away from betting on him in any fashion this week.

Bryson DeChambeau (+1400) score prediction: E

Bryson DeChambeau has finished T6, solo second and first in the three majors so far this season, but I expect little from him this week. His bomb-and-gouge style of play simply doesn't translate well to links golf and his results at the Open show that. Since 2017, his finishes at the Open are; MC, T51, MC, T33, T8, T60.

Maybe he's playing well enough this season to overcome that, but I won't be risking my money on it.

Xander Schauffele (+1400) score prediction: -6

Xander Schauffele has been the PGA Tour's clear second-best this season in almost every metric, but his form hasn't been up to his standards enough lately to make me think he will win his second major this week. He hasn't finished inside the top five since winning the PGA Championship so I expect another good, but not great, result from him this week. His best finish at the Open was a T2 in 2018.

Collin Morikawa (+1600) score prediction: -11

Collin Morikawa is my pick to win this week. He's been in contention at all three majors this season and he's already an Open champion, in 2021. He has also played fantastic golf since the Masters, not finishing worse than T16 at an individual event. A T4 finish at last week's Scottish Open was the final thing I had to see to convince me he's the play this week.

Jon Rahm (+2500) score prediction: Missed Cut

Jon Rahm finished T45 at the masters and missed the cut at the PGA Championship. He has also failed to win a LIV event this year despite far inferior competition. What makes anyone think he can truly contend this week at Royal Troon? I'm out on Rahm until he proves otherwise.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) score prediction: -4

Tommy Fleetwood has always played well on links courses but a T34 finish at last week's Scottish Open is a cause for concern this week. If he's ever going to win a major, I think it'll come at the Open, but I don't think he's in good enough form for it to come this week.

Robert MacIntyre (+2800) score prediction: Missed Cut

No golfer is easier to cheer for than Robert MacIntyre, but winning the Scottish Open last week was his personal major. He'll be celebrating this week and rightfully so, but I don't expect him to show the best version of himself at Royal Troon. Let's remember how hot and cold “Big Shot Bob” can be. He has two wins in his last six starts but also has three missed cuts in that span.

Tyrrell Hatton (+2800) score prediction: -8

Tyrrell Hatton could be an interesting pick this week. He won LIV Nashville last month and was solo third at LIV Andalucia last week. He's in great form and should be a solid course fit for Royal Troon. I predict he has a strong outing this week and will be in contention on Sunday, but will ultimately fall off on the back nine.

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