2024 Conference USA Win Total Projection for Each Team: Who is Set to Contend with Liberty?

Reed Wallach | 13 Hours Ago

Jan 1, 2024; Glendale, AZ, USA; Liberty Flames head coach Jamey Chadwell looks on from the sidelines during the second quarter against the Oregon Ducks in the 2024 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Conference USA has been in the middle of the realignment era, including acquiring several schools that weren’t part of conferences or in the FCS ranks in the past, but now its set to be dominated by one of its newcomers.

Liberty wasted no time taking control of Conference USA, going 13-1 en route to the league title and a Fiesta Bowl bid. With a ton of returning production, the Flames are expected to dominate the conference again, evident in its double digit win total. 

There are only two other teams with a win total that implies the team will go over .500 in Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State as the conference is lacking quality depth but also face a ton of challenging non conference schedules. 

Here is each team in Conference USA’s win total, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. 

FIU 2024 Regular Season Win Total Projection

4.5 (Over +138/Under -170)

Mike MacIntyre’s bunch will benefit from an incredibly easy schedule as the team plays one Power Five team, Indiana, and has six winnable games at home against teams projected to win six or fewer games.

Jacksonville State 2024 Regular Season Win Total Projection

7.5 (Over -134/Under +110)

Jacksonville State hit the ground running in 2023, its first season in the FBS ranks, and even though the team ranks 103rd in returning production, per ESPN, Rich Rodriguez’s up-tempo scheme has oddsmakers bullish on the Gamecocks ability to contend in 2024. 

The team is projected to win at least eight games 57% of the time.

Kennesaw State 2024 Regular Season Win Total Projection

2.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

It’ll be the Owls first season in FBS play, and the team is not eligible for the conference title game. Oddsmakers have listed Kennesaw State with the lowest win total in the league. 

Liberty 2024 Regular Season Win Total Projection

10.5 (Over -134/Under +106)

The favorites to win the league, the Flames are hoping to compete in the first expanded College Football Playoffs, and oddsmakers are bullish on Jamey Chadwell’s bunch with a ton of returning production around quarterback Kaidon Salter. 

The Flames are projected to win 11 games, or go undefeated, 57% of the time, based on the listed odds. 

Louisiana Tech 2024 Regular Season Win Total Projection

4.5 (Over -150/Under +122)

Louisiana Tech couldn’t find its consistency last season, and it may be a tough year again in Ruston. The Bulldogs are given a 60% chance to win five or more games. 

Middle Tennessee 2024 Regular Season Win Total Projection

4.5 (Over -122/Under +100)

Derek Mason will take off the Blue Raiders in place of former longtime head coach Rick Stockstill, but oddsmakers aren’t buying a serious bounceback from last season's four win team, giving the team a 54.95% chance to improve its record. 

New Mexico State 2024 Regular Season Win Total Projection

4.5 (Over +108/Under -132)

The Aggies had an incredible run to the conference title game last season, but are 128th in returning production, evident in the team’s reduced win total. 

Sam Houston State 2024 Regular Season Win Total Projection

4.5 (Over -134/Under +110)

Sam Houston was competitive in its first season in the FBS ranks, but it didn’t amount to many wins, starting 0-8 before finishing the season with three wins in the final four games. Oddsmakers believe that the Bearkats can take at least a small step forward, giving the team a 57.3% chance of winning five or more games. 

UTEP 2024 Regular Season Win Total Projection

4.5 (Over +104/Under -128)

Scotty Walden takes over in El Paso, but it may take a little bit as the Miners are projected to win four or fewer games 56% of the time.

Western Kentucky 2024 Regular Season Win Total Projection

7.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Tyson Helton has been successful in five seasons with the Hilltoppers, and the team is expected to contend yet again for a CUSA crown, one of three teams with a win total of above .500. 

The team has gone over this win total in all but one season (2020) in his tenure with WKU. 

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