2024 Heisman Trophy Betting Preview: Deep Dive into Betting Heisman Trophy

Reed Wallach | Aug 1, 2024

Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel throws during practice with the Oregon Ducks Tuesday, April 2, 2024 in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Heisman Trophy lacks a clear-cut favorite this season, rather a large group of players, some of which are transfers that have a wider range of outcomes relative to other years.

With the emergence of the transfer portal and the reshaping of college football, dissecting the Heisman Trophy is an ongoing process. The foundation remains the same, but higher-end outcomes can be reached with the revolving door of players all over the field that it isn't just cut and dry.

Below, you'll find the odds for the Heisman Trophy without anything close to a clear favorite as oddsmakers are letting the games play out before jumping to conclusions given the variance we may see in the evolving college football world.

2024 Heisman Trophy Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Dillon Gabriel: +700
• Carson Beck: +750
• Quinn Ewers: +1000
• Will Howard: +1400
• Nico Iamaleava: +1400
• Jalen Milroe: +1400
• Garrett Nussmeier: +1800
• Cam Ward: +1800
• Conner Weigman: +2000
• Riley Leonard: +2000
• Avery Johnson: +2500
• D.J. Uiagalelei: +3000
• Jackson Arnold: +3000
• Jalon Daniels: +3000
• Cam Rising: +3000
• Drew Allar: +3500
• Brady Cook: +3500
• Noah Fifita: +4000
• KJ Jefferson: +4000
• Shedeur Sanders: +4000
• Miller Moss: +4000

How to Bet Heisman Trophy

Let's start with some barriers to entry as to who is a serious Heisman Trophy candidate.

First, I'd stick with a quarterback. Outliers happen, hence DeVonta Smith, but the sport is so hyper-focused on the quarterback that I won't go out on a limb and say a skill position player is winning this award with the talent at QB.

Second, the team must be good, typically really good.

Dating back the last 20 years, every single Heisman Trophy winner has won at least nine games. While the new look of college football where going undefeated isn't as necessary given the increased difficulty of the schedule and the postseason expansion, the Heisman will likely come from a very good to elite team.

Third, the player (in my opinion a quarterback) must put up big-time stats. In today's pass-happy football, I'd say a good barometer is over 4,500 total yards and 40 total touchdowns.

Over the last 10 seasons, eight quarterbacks have won. Six passed for more than 4,000 yards with the only two being Daniels and Jackson, who each ran for more than 1,000 yards. Big numbers are needed.

So, we have a quarterback who can put up stats in bunches on a close-to-elite team in the mix for the postseason.

Let's get to it, shall we?

Tier 1: Heisman Trophy Conteners

I'll start by lumping together the players at +1500 and below.

Dillon Gabriel has been the trendy name in the betting market over the summer as we draw closer to opening kickoff. Once +1000, Gabriel is now +700 and the betting favorite to win the award.

I agree with this movement as Gabriel fits like a glove in Oregon's offense that was put together under Dan Lanning. Offensive coordinator Will Stein nearly engineered an offense for quarterback Bo Nix to win the Heisman last season and I expect Gabriel to get it done in 2024.

Gabriel played in a similar offense at Oklahoma which makes me bullish he can be a seamless transition to this Ducks offense that features star power everywhere. Gabriel had similar stats to Nix last season and with the upgrade in talent that features wide receivers Troy Franklin and Texas A&M transfer Evan Stewart as well as tight end Terrance Ferguson in the passing game.

While numbers are necessary to win the Heisman -- Gabriel passed for 3,660 yards and 42 combined touchdowns last season while Nix passed for 4,508 yards and 51 combined touchdowns with the Ducks -- so is team success.

The Ducks are viewed as the second choice in the Big Ten and among a group of four teams above the rest in the betting market. Oregon's toughest game will be played in Eugene against Ohio State and we have proof of concept that this iteration of the Ducks is intent on padding stats and the quarterback can accumulate a ton of counting stats.

So, why not Carson Beck of Georgia?

Beck is arguably the best quarterback prospect in the class, but Georgia has been keen not to pad stats in what is partially a counting competition. Beck was lethal last season for the Bulldogs, but only racked up 3,941 yards, 28 total touchdowns, and six interceptions. While Georgia is likely the best team this season, I'm not buying Beck to put it all together.

Ewers is the third quarterback at the top, but I'm a bit skepitcalTexas will make the jump to the best conference in football and not run into any setbacks along the way. Not to mention, the Longhorns are working with a ton of new weapons in the passing game that can hold back the offense at times against the likes of Michigan and Georgia, arguably the two best defenses in the country, during the regular season.

Will Howard is a non-starter for me. While Ohio State has a ton of talent, I don't see it manifesting in a high-octane passing game that keeps up week in and week out with the aforementioned Ducks, among others.

Tier 2: Which Quarterback Can Level Up?

There is a bit of correlation between team success and Heisman odds heading into the season, so which quarterback in the next group can break through?

Jalen Milroe returns at Alabama, but I'm not interested in betting on him to win the Heisman as the offense undergoes a complete change under new head coach Kalen DeBoer.

However, Nico Iamaleava does have me attention.

The Tennessee quarterback sat out most of last season after being recruited as a five-star recruit. Now, with more experience in Josh Heupel's frenetic offense, I believe the Vols can put together a monster season in Knoxville on offense.

Just two years ago, Hendon Hooker was viewed as a Heisman contender before tearing his ACL late in the season. Iamaleava is not the veteran that Hooker was, but he has the arm talent to thrive in a quarterback-friendly system that Heupel runs.

Further, the Vols are viewed as outside threats to make the College Football Playoff, saddled with a win total of 8.5 and a handful of marquee matchups that can bolster his case including at Oklahoma, home for Alabama, and at Georgia. There's a world where the Vols travel to Athens to face Georiga as an undefeated SEC contender. The upside of the UT quarterback makes him an intriguing contender as we move down the board.

Garrett Nussmeier has a lot of hype and a solid LSU team, but I do fear he has too much to overcome with Jayden Daniels winning in historic fashion last season.

Meanwhile, Cam Ward has the star power to win over voters with Miami and could be worthy of a bet, but he will be put on the hot seat quickly with the team playing at Florida in a projected coin-flip matchup.

Conner Weigman has Heisman upside if Texas A&M can gel quickly under new head coach Mike Elko and new offensive coordinator Collin Klein, but will he stay healthy? Weigman missed most of last season with a foot injury after a strong start to the season. There is reason to be bullish on Weigman, but Klein's offenses may also feature more ground control, which can hold him down counting stat-wise.

Tier 3: Can a Long Shot Emerge?

As we move down the board, teams that have a tougher path to the top of the polls come into focus.

While a player like Jalon Daniels has tantalizing ability on the football field, is Kansas either going to be a top-10 team this season or will Daniels put up numbers that compare to last year's winner, Daniels?

If you don't believe that the team will win at least nine games, or that the player will total more than 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns, you are likely drawing dead given some of the talent at the top of the board.

While a player like Jackson Arnold excites me, Oklahoma has a brutal schedule in its first in the SEC so he likely won't be a factor at all.

If you are looking for fliers, you can opt to focus on players who can pounce on new teams and/or coordinators.

Drew Allar struggled in his first season as a starter at Penn State, but the Nittany Lions hired Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas in hopes of unlocking the explosiveness this offense has the talent for. If Allar and the OC click, can the Nittany Lions be at the top of the Big Ten and he has the necessary stats to warrant consideration?

What about KJ Jefferson, who heads to the Big 12 with UCF, a drop in class from the SEC after transferring from Arkansas? The dual-threat quarterback joins Gus Malzahn and the Knights, who of course coached Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton at Auburn. I'm not making the connection, the coach is!

“Dual-threat guy,” Malzahn said on Wednesday at Big 12 Media Days. “Physically, he's the closest thing to Cam (Newton) that I've had.

While things need to click, UCF may have a top 10 offense in the country and be a contender in a wide-open Big 12, which can lead to high upside for Jefferson, but he's +4000 for a reason.

There will be plenty more coverage on the Heisman Trophy, but here's a little appetizer for how to size up the competition.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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