2024 Heisman Trophy Odds: Cam Ward is Best Bet to Challenge to Travis Hunter

Reed Wallach | 2 Hours Ago

Nov 9, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward (1) scrambles against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the second quarter at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

We march closer to the end of the college football season, and with that comes further clarity around plenty of postseason material, including conference championship matchups, the College Football Playoff and the Heisman Trophy. 

In Week 12, Colorado’s Travis Hunter stuffed the stat sheet on both sides of the ball, adding more momentum to his Heisman campaign, and Boise State’s running back Ashton Jeanty found the end zone three more times while Miami’s superstar quarterback Cam Ward was off on a BYE week.

Of course, it’s impossible to accumulate stats on a BYE week, but the market shifted against Ward, docking him for his schedule. 

However, as Hunter has shot out to -330 at FanDuel Sportsbook, Jeanty took up a ton of the win equity to try and chase him down as Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel grinded through a game against Wisconsin. 

Meanwhile, Ward’s odds plummeted from +800 last week to +1400 now. 

That’s incorrect. 

Before I explain why, here’s the updated Heisman Trophy race, where it’s becoming clear who is actually in the mix for the award. 

2024 Heisman Trophy Odds

• Travis Hunter, Colorado: -330
• Ashton Jeanty, Boise State: +350
• Cam Ward, Miami (Florida): +1400
• Dillon Gabriel, Oregon: +2500
• Kurtis Rourke, Indiana: +3000
• Jalen Milroe, Alabama: +3300

Cam Ward is a Viable Heisman Trophy Contender

As discussed last week, Hunter’s odds were way off to his true win probability, and now are much closer to the right number as he is the clear favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Hunter’s odds transfer to a 76.74% implied probability that he wins the award, and barring a blowout loss to Kansas this week (Colorado is a small road favorite), the award is likely his. 

However, who can chase him down? 

The betting market says Jeanty, who continues to put up big numbers for Boise State, but he likely won’t break Barry Sanders single season rushing record despite two incredibly easy matchups to finish the season against Wyoming and Oregon State before almost certainly playing in the Mountain West title game. The Broncos running back is 735 yards off the record, so he’d need to average 245 yards per game to finish the season. 

With Gabriel struggling through Oregon’s game against Wisconsin, he has essentially removed himself from the race due to the limited statistical profile. However, Ward still looms as a quarterback that can capture the masses. 

Last time out, in Week 11, Ward and the Hurricanes suffered its first loss of the season against Georgia Tech, but the team remains in control of its own destiny to the ACC Championship and the College Football Playoff. 

The Hurricanes play Wake Forest at home this week, who is bottom 20 in EPA/Pass, and then goes on the road to play Syracuse in a likely high scoring affair. After that, Miami will play in a likely win-and-in scenario for the CFP with all eyes on him.

There is still enough time and ability for Ward to accumulate more stats and play in high leverage games to get back into the mix for the award given his star power and position. 

Ward leads the country in passing yards and touchdowns, so the numbers will be there for him to at the very least be a finalist. Now, how does he win? 

Hunter needs to slip up, likely with a quiet loss against a surging Kansas team, and Jeanty needs to fail to capture the voters with an outstanding, but not historic season, while Ward goes on a monster tear to finish the season. 

Again, Hunter is likely going to win, but award markets are fluid, and in a sport that is concentrated on one day of the week, its easy to find mispriced options as the season rolls along.

To me, Ward’s number is the one that can move the most as I believe he has the cleanest path to challenging Hunter for the award, not Jeanty. So, at longer odds, if you are looking to get involved in this market, don’t rule out the ‘Canes signal caller. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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