2024 MLB Home Run Derby: Will Adolis Garcia Win in Front of the Home Crowd?

Breaking down Adolis Garcia's odds to win the Home Run Derby on Monday night.

May 18, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers right fielder Adolis Garcia (53) hits a solo home run during the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports / Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

Texas Rangers star Adolis Garcia will look to win the 2024 Home Run Derby in front of his home crowd in Arlington, Texas on Monday night.

The Home Run Derby has a new format this season, something that I explained in yesterday's best bets, and there's a few key things to know. Here's a snippet from yesterday's story to go through the rules:

The first round is no longer head-to-head. The four players with the most home runs in the first round will advance to the next round. They will be seeded for head-to-head "knockout style" in the semifinals. The player with the most home runs in the first round will grab the No. 1 seed, etc.   If there is a tie in the first round, the seeding or qualifying will be broken by the longest home run distance. 

In the first two rounds, the batter will be limited to three minutes, with a max of 40 pitches per round. This will eliminate the hurry for pitchers to throw as many balls as possible, which could increase fatigue and injury risk. Batters also still receive one 45-second timeout per round. 

The Final round will consist of just 27 pitches. 

Bonus time will be granted to each player at the end of each round. However, there will be no timer in the bonus round this season. Instead, the player will continue until he makes three outs (a ball that is not hit for a home run).  One extra out can be earned if a player hits a home run 425 feet or longer. 

A 60-second swing-off will break ties in the semifinals or finals. No timeouts will be granted during these 60 seconds. 

Garcia is fifth in the odds to win the Home Run Derby on Monday, but can the home crowd help propel him to an underdog victory?

2024 MLB Home Run Derby Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Pete Alonso +320
Marcell Ozuna +425
Bobby WItt, Jr. +425
Gunnar Henderson +450
Adolis Garcia +550
Teoscar Hernandez +1100
Jose Ramirez +1400
Alec Bohm +1800

Can Adolis Garcia Win the Home Run Derby?

Garcia will have the advantage of hitting in a familiar ballpark on Monday night, and this has helped contestants in the past.

Remember, Bryce Harper won the 2018 Derby in front of the hometown crowd in Philly.

However, I don't have a lot of confidence in Garcia this year. The star outfielder has 17 home runs this season -- which all would have been out at Globe Life -- but that's still just sixth amongst this year's participants.  

Garcia has only seven homers this season that would be gone in any ballpark. His max homer this year was just 428 feet, and his average home run of 394 feet ranks last in the field.

On the positive side, the Rangers star's max exit velocity ranks fourth, which can be a good sign in the Derby.  Looking at last year, Garcia was eliminated in the first round, so he should be looking to put on a better show in front of the home crowd.

Still, I can't find many more reasons to get excited about him.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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