2024 MLB Home Run Derby: Will Gunnar Henderson Win?

Gunnar Henderson is +450 to win the Home Run Derby.

Jun 19, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 MLB Home Run Derby takes centerstage on Monday night, and there are plenty of options to bet on to win -- all at plus money.

Baltimore Orioles slugger Gunnar Henderson is participating in the action on Monday night, but should bettors choose him to win? Henderson is amongst the top half of the field in the latest odds, but the format this year is a little different, something I highlighted in yesterday's Home Run Derby best bets.

Here's a snippet from that to recap the rules:

The first round is no longer head-to-head. The four players with the most home runs in the first round will advance to the next round. They will be seeded for head-to-head "knockout style" in the semifinals. The player with the most home runs in the first round will grab the No. 1 seed, etc.   If there is a tie in the first round, the seeding or qualifying will be broken by the longest home run distance. 

In the first two rounds, the batter will be limited to three minutes, with a max of 40 pitches per round. This will eliminate the hurry for pitchers to throw as many balls as possible, which could increase fatigue and injury risk. Batters also still receive one 45-second timeout per round. 

The Final round will consist of just 27 pitches. 

Bonus time will be granted to each player at the end of each round. However, there will be no timer in the bonus round this season. Instead, the player will continue until he makes three outs (a ball that is not hit for a home run).  One extra out can be earned if a player hits a home run 425 feet or longer. 

A 60-second swing-off will break ties in the semifinals or finals. No timeouts will be granted during these 60 seconds. 

Henderson is currently behind Pete Alonso, Marcell Ozuna and Gunnar Henderson in the latest odds, but he's at +450 compared to Ozuna (+425) and Witt (+425), which means oddsmakers don't see a huge gap between them.

2024 Home Run Derby Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Pete Alonso +320
Marcell Ozuna +425
Bobby WItt, Jr. +425
Gunnar Henderson +450
Adolis Garcia +550
Teoscar Hernandez +1100
Jose Ramirez +1400
Alec Bohm +1800

Should You Bet on Gunnar Henderson?

Henderson currently leads this field in home runs entering the All-Star break.

He hit one on Sunday against the New York Yankees in dramatic fashion to carry some hype into the contest tonight.

Only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have more homers this year, so Henderson is clearly one of the best sluggers in the league.

Still, there are a couple of things to keep in mind.  The Orioles star's max home run (430 feet) this season ranks sixth among contenders, and his 28 home runs would only equate to 23 in Globe Life Field.

That's fewer than Ozuna and tied with Jose Ramirez, something worth noting since they'll all be on an even playing field on Monday night.

So far in 2024, 10 of Henderson's home runs this season would be gone in any ballpark, tying him for second in that category with Alonso and Ozuna, but behind Bobby Witt Jr.    

Remember, a bonus out can be earned by hitting a home run 425+ feet, so there could be a slight edge to having the ability to hit the ball longer on Monday night.  

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.