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NFL Playoff Scenarios: Teams Resting Starters, Fighting for Seeding in Week 18 Causes Chaos for Bettors
Week 18 in the NFL is a tricky one to navigate for fantasy football and betting.
Some teams are playing for a higher playoff seed, a playoff berth, or a better draft pick. Meanwhile, others are resting their star players because their post-season status is already situated. Making things even more interesting in the final week of the regular season are the players with statistical incentives in their contracts who may be a bit more motivated this week thanks to the financial rewards associated with their performances.
Here’s a handy cheat sheet to help you make the most informed decisions as you make your weekend wagers.
Let’s break it down.
Four Teams Locked In At Current Seed
Baltimore Ravens (locked into AFC #1 seed)
With home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Ravens have nothing to gain as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 18. We should expect players to be rested or at least pulled early, including quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are listed as a 3.5 point home underdog as the oddsmakers fully expect to see Baltimore’s backups in action most of the game.
San Francisco 49ers (locked into NFC #1 seed)
Like the Ravens, the 49ers have their first-round bye and home-field throughout the postseason locked up. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan says he won’t rest players but we already know running back Christian McCaffrey is ruled out with a calf injury. How long will the 49ers’ starters last in their regular-season finale against the Rams? Fans and bettors should be prepared for San Francisco and Los Angeles Rams starters to make an early exit.
Kansas City Chiefs (locked into AFC #3 seed)
The Chiefs will likely rest their starters, as that’s been Andy Reid’s protocol in the past. The Chiefs are getting 3.5 points from the lowly Chargers.
Cleveland Browns (locked into AFC #5 seed)
Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski already announced quarterback Joe Flacco will not play in Week 18 and with the lack of depth right now for Cleveland, we should assume other integral players on the roster will also rest. The Browns are 7.5 point underdogs.
Three Teams Locked Into The Playoffs, Seeds May Change
The Cowboys will lock up the NFC East title and the NFC’s No.2 seed with a win on Sunday vs. the Washignton Commanders. They will be highly motivated to win, the No. 2 seed will avoid a matchup with the 49ers until the NFC Championship game. Plus it gives Dallas a home-field advantage in the Wildcard and Divisional rounds. They are currently -13.5 point favorites over the Commanders.
The Eagles will be scoreboard-watching and if Dallas is out to a big lead against the Commanders, head coach Nick Sirianni has already hinted that he will protect his starters against the Giants. The Eagles could slip into the No. 2 seed if the Cowboys get upset by Washington and Philadelphia wins in New York.
The Dolphins aren’t just battling with the Buffalo Bills in Week 18 but they are also battling the Bills for the AFC East title. If they lose to the Bills, Miami will drop from the No. 2 seed to the No. 6 seed. More on that below.
Two Teams Locked Into The Playoffs, Seeds Likely Stay The Same
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have locked up a playoff berth and are playing only for seeding.The most likely scenario is the Rams hold onto the 6th seed, which they do by beating the 49ers. But if they lose, the Packers win, and a few other situations play out, the Rams could move down one spot to the 7th seed.
The Lions are likely going to stay put as the No. 3 seed. They can move up to the No. 2 seed with a win over the Vikings and losses from both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. Lions head coach Dan Campbell has given early indication he plans to play his starters.
AFC Teams Fighting For Playoff Berth
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have everything at stake. With a win over the Dolphins, they lock up the division title and the No. 2 AFC seed. If they lose, they could easily also lose out on a playoff berth altogether, depending on other outcomes.
The Jaguars will clinch the AFC South division title with a win. If they lose or tie, they will become dependent on other teams’ (Colts, Texans) outcomes. The Jaguars are favored by -5.5 over the Titans.
The Colts can secure a playoff berth with a win over Houston. They can also secure the AFC South title with a win and a Jacksonville loss or tie.
The Texans are in a similar position as the Colts, though the Colts have a slightly easier path to the division title. With a win, Houston can secure a playoff berth. With a win and a Jacksonville loss, they can win the divisions. With a tie and a Jacksonville loss and a Pittsburgh loss or tie, they can still make the postseason.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers will need some luck from other teams, but one thing they must do is win. They’re the first game of the week and won’t know the outcome of any of the other games, so expect them to play at full strength.
NFC Teams Fighting For Playoff Berth
The Buccaneers will clinch the NFC South with a victory over Carolina. With a loss they miss the playoffs altogether.
The Packers can clinch a playoff berth with a win vs. the Bears. They can still make the playoffs with a complicated series of other results.
With a Green Bay loss and a Seattle win, the Seahawks will be playoff-bound. These teams have simultaneous start times so the expectation is each squad will use their starters for the entirety of the contest.
The Saints can clinch the NFC south with a win and a Tampa Bay loss. A loss eliminates New Orleans from any postseason chances.
The Vikings need a lot of luck from other matchups to make it to the postseason, but one thing they cannot afford is a loss. They play in the early slate vs. Detroit, so we should expect them to give it all they’ve got and then cross their fingers that the Cardinals, Bears, Falcons and/or Panthers win their games as well.
The Falcons can clinch the NFC South title with a win plus a Tampa Bay loss. The Falcons, Saints, and Bucs all play in the early Sunday slate. With a loss, the Falcons are eliminated from the playoffs.
Teams Eliminated From Playoff Content
These teams are eliminated from playoff contention. We can assume many will be looking for better draft picks but also don’t rule out the fun of playing spoiler for division rivals.
Jennifer Piacenti is a fantasy sports and betting analyst for Sports Illustrated. She serves as a host for Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio and has her own podcast, “Waiver Wired,” on the Extra Points podcast network. Piacenti is also a featured expert on MLB Network’s “Bettor’s Eye” and is a member of the esteemed Tout Wars, the fantasy baseball battle of the experts. She is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and is a 2020 Scott Fish Bowl finalist.