AFC Wild-Card Round Betting Preview: Browns vs. Texans

Cleveland is a road favorite in Houston for Saturday’s first-round matchup.

The Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans will be forever linked by the Deshaun Watson deal.

Less than two years after that trade went down, the Texans (10–7) won their division in part due to the haul they recouped by sending Watson to Cleveland. The Browns (11–6) are also headed back to the playoffs — only without Watson. Instead, veteran Joe Flacco is under center as Cleveland heads to Houston for the wild-card round with its franchise quarterback on injured reserve.

The Browns have won their last four games against the Texans, including a 36–22 whalloping in Week 16. That was one of two games C.J. Stroud missed while he was in concussion protocol and Houston struggled on offense without him. However, Stroud’s absence doesn’t explain the secondary surrendering 225 receiving yards — a Cleveland franchise record — to Amari Cooper.

Less than three weeks removed from that blowout, the Browns are favored by 2.5 points against the Texans at NRG Stadium. Cleveland is one of two road favorites during wild-card weekend as the Eagles are also favored over the Buccaneers in Tampa. The over/under is set at 44.5 points, according to SI Sportsbook, which is up from the 39.5-point total these teams smashed on Christmas Eve.

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Browns vs. Texans Odds and Game Info

Moneyline: Browns (-143) | Texans (+120)
Spread: CLE -2.5 (-118) | HOU +2.5 (+100)
Total: 44.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Sunday, Jan. 14, 4:30 p.m. ET | NBC

When Joe Flacco was Super Bowl MVP with the Baltimore Ravens after the 2012 season, Texans QB C.J. Stroud was 11 years old

Cleveland and Houston Key Stats and Fun Facts:

• The Browns finished 10–6–1 against the spread while Houston was 9–8. That includes Cleveland covering as a 3-point favorite when these teams last met.
• Despite appearing in just 15 games, Stroud finished with the eighth-most sacks taken (38).
• Browns’ defensive end Myles Garrett (14) and Texans’ defensive end Jonathan Greenard (12.5) finished tied for seventh and 10th, respectively, in sacks.

Browns vs. Texans Best Bet: Over 44.5 (-110)

The Browns rested their starters in a 31–14 Week 18 loss to the Bengals as they were already locked into the No. 5 seed. Prior to that game, they had won four in a row behind Flacco’s string of 300-yard passing games, which he improbably continued in a 37–20 blowout of the Jets — without Cooper. That dominant win against New York was the Thursday Night Football finale, so when Cleveland takes the field on Saturday, 16 days will have passed since its starters last suited up.

The only team with a better home record than the Browns (8–1) is the Cowboys (8–0), but Cleveland is just 3–5 on the road. That record does come with an asterisk, as Flacco was under center for just two of those games. Watson, PJ Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson went a combined 2–4 in away games while Flacco was 1–1, losing to the Rams 36–19 in L.A. in his first start and leading the way to that win over the Texans in Houston.

The Browns finished the regular season with the best pass defense in the NFL, allowing just 164.7 yards per game through the air. They also finished just outside the top 10 against the run (105.5 yards per game). Cleveland tied for the fifth-most turnovers forced (28) and third-most interceptions (18) but still finished with a negative differential. Browns quarterbacks combined to throw a league-high 23 interceptions and Flacco accounted for eight in just five games, throwing at least one in every start.

Therein lies the downside to Flacco’s gunslinging tendencies, but the upside was apparent in Cooper’s 225-yard explosion and David Njoku’s late-season run. Injuries along the offensive line and to star running back Nick Chubb have forced Cleveland to change its game plan. As such, the Browns only broke 100 rushing yards once with Flacco starting and tallied only 29 on the ground in a 20–17 win against the Bears.

The Texans are also a pass-happy offense, and for good reason. Stroud’s 273.9 passing yards per game rank third only behind Flacco (323.2) and Kirk Cousins (291.4). The rookie is also extremely turnover averse, finishing with just five interceptions in 15 games and he hasn’t thrown one since Week 11.

Once Tank Dell went down for the year, Nico Collins emerged as Stroud’s No. 1 option. The third-year pro put up career-highs across the board and ended the year with 195 yards and a score in a 23–19 Week 18 win against the Colts to clinch a postseason spot. Houston is one of 11 teams that average fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, though Devin Singletary did emerge as a reliable runner in the second half of the season.

The Texans held their own at home with a 6–3 record -- 6–2 with Stroud. They actually allow fewer points per game (20.9) than the Browns (21.3) though they give up more than 60 more yards per game than Cleveland, which leads the league in that metric. Houston is a tough team to run on and a relatively easy one to pass against, making this a good matchup for the Flacco-led Browns.

This is one of the most interesting coaching matchups of the weekend as the Texans’ DeMeco Ryans and Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski are among the favorites for Coach of the Year after leading their teams to such impressive turnarounds.

It truly feels like this game can go either way considering it has the tightest line of the first round. What feels like more of a sure thing is this game devolves into a shootout, the way almost every game has with Flacco at quarterback. The Browns (11–6) are tied for the highest over rate in the NFL this year and the over is 4–1 with Flacco under center. Unders are much more common for the Texans (6–11) but they have a knack for keeping things close with such an explosive offense and they could have trouble slowing down Cleveland once again this weekend.

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