AFC Wild-Card Round Betting Preview: Steelers vs. Bills

Buffalo is a hefty home favorite against Pittsburgh on Sunday.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are heavy underdogs against the Buffalo Bills in their first playoff game without Ben Roethlisberger since the early 2000s.

There are two records working in Buffalo’s favor even before kickoff: The Bills are an NFL-best 30–7 at Highmark Stadium since 2020 and Pittsburgh is 1–10 all-time without All-Pro edge rusher T.J. Watt (knee), who’s been ruled out for Sunday’s wild-card matchup. Buffalo’s dominance at home and Watt’s absence help explain why this game has the most lopsided spread of any in Round 1.

The Bills, who won 38–3 the last time the Steelers came to town in 2022, have been installed as a 9.5-point favorite. The over/under is set at just 35.5 points, according to SI Sportsbook, which gives Pittsburgh an implied total of just 13.

Buffalo (11–6) storms into the playoffs on a five-game winning streak, having won the AFC East for the fourth year running with a Week 18 win over the Miami Dolphins. The Steelers (10–7) won their final three games to capture the last wild-card spot in the conference and clinch yet another winning season for head coach Mike Tomlin.

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Steelers vs. Bills Odds and Game Info

Moneyline: Steelers (+420) | Bills (-568)
Spread: PIT +9.5 (-105) | BUF -9.5 (-118)
Total: 35.5 — Over (-118) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Sunday, Jan. 14, 1 p.m. ET | CBS

While the Steelers will be without NFL sack leader T.J. Watt, the defense could get a boost from the return of big-play defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick :: Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh and Buffalo Key Stats and Fun Facts:

• The Steelers (minus-20) were the only team with a negative point differential to make the playoffs. The Bills (plus-140) finished fourth in point differential.
• Sunday's forecast in Orchard Park, N.Y., projects snow and sustained wind.
• Josh Allen is 3–1 in his career against Pittsburgh.

Steelers vs. Bills Best Bet: Under 35.5 (-110)

Pittsburgh’s 17–10 Week 18 playoff-clinching win may have come against a Baltimore Ravens team resting its starters but it was still a sound defensive showing. Of course, the heart of that defense, Watt — who led the NFL in sacks yet again with 19 — is out against Buffalo. However, All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) could return after missing the team’s final three games. Having a playmaker like Fitzpatrick in the secondary could make a huge difference against Allen, who tossed 18 interceptions this season.

The Steelers are roughly middle of the pack in pass and run defense but they’re still the No. 6 scoring defense in the NFL (19.1 points per game). That’s in part thanks to their top-five red zone defense. And even with Fitzpatrick missing seven games, this unit tied for the eighth-most turnovers forced (27) and tied for third in differential (+11).

Between Mason Rudolph, Mitchell Trubisky and Kenny Pickett, the Steelers combined to throw just 13 touchdowns as a team, which had them tied with the Panthers for 31st in the NFL. But they also only had nine combined interceptions and Rudolph didn’t turn the ball over once in his three starts, during which the team went undefeated.

Winning the turnover battle and running the ball, which Pittsburgh did well down the stretch, allowed the Steelers to win tight games — nine of their 10 victories were decided by seven points or fewer.

Najee Harris finished the season with back-to-back 100-yard games to get over 1,000 yards and Jaylen Warren proved to be a good complementary back, averaging an efficient 5.4 yards per carry and finishing fifth among running backs in receptions (61). The move to Rudolph under center also saw George Pickens post his two best games of the year and allowed Diontae Johnson to re-emerge late in the year.

The defense Rudolph will be up against in his first career playoff start is one of seven that allows fewer than 200 passing yards per game and finished tied for third in interceptions (18) and turnovers (30). Despite losing cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano for the year in October, the Bills finished fourth in scoring defense (18.5 points per game). Buffalo also held the Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins all under 20 points over the last month.

The Bills did not enjoy the same turnover differential as their opponent, as Allen threw at least one interception in a game more often than not. But he also finished fourth in passing yards (4,306), tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (29) and tied for second among all players in rushing touchdowns (15). Allen’s connection with Stefon Diggs suffered in November and into December but he and his top target connected seven times for 87 yards in the season finale to recapture some of their chemistry before playoff time.

Buffalo could be without deep threat Gabe Davis (knee) this weekend, which would put more responsibility on the shoulders of rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid and second-year speedster Khalil Shakir, who had 105 yards against Miami.

The Bills emerged as a dangerous rushing team after offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired in mid-November. Running back James Cook saw an uptick in usage once Joe Brady took over, specifically against the Cowboys when he totaled over 200 yards and two touchdowns in a 31–10 win against one of the NFL’s top defenses.

Despite Buffalo’s dominance down the stretch, this team remains one of the least reliable to bet on. The Bills finished 7–10 against the spread and 2–6 as a favorite of seven points or more, including an outright loss to the Patriots as 7.5-point favorites. Compare that to Pittsburgh’s 10–7 record against the spread and 6–4 straight up record as an underdog. But the real value here lies in betting the under given the projected weather conditions. These teams posted matching 6–11 over/under records this season and strong winds will force both offenses to the ground, resulting in a low-scoring affair that makes it difficult to trust Buffalo to cover such a large line.

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