AFC Wild-Card Round Player Props: Dolphins vs. Chiefs

Miami and Kansas City face off in the cold Saturday night, and these four picks could be hot.

The AFC wild card Miami Dolphins will leave sunny South Beach and put on their coats for a chilly matchup with the AFC West champion Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium Saturday night.

Wind chills are expected to be sub-zero for the matchup.

The game total is 44.5 at SI Sportsbook, with the home team favored by 4.5 points.

Here are some player props we are targeting for Saturday night’s matchup.

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Rashee Rice over 61.5 receiving yards (-110)

Rice came on strong at the end of the regular season, leading all Chiefs pass-catchers with a 25.2% target share and 86.3 receiving yards per game since Week 12. Meanwhile, the Dolphins allowed an average of 177 receiving yards per game to wideouts across the regular season’s last four contests, and now the Dolphins are even more banged up defensively. In addition to losing linebackers Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips, Jerome Baker and Andrew Van Ginkel, it looks like the Dolphins will also be playing without cornerback Xavien Howard on Saturday.

While the Chiefs’ passing game has struggled this season, Isiah Pacheco has been a force both running the ball and catching passes out of the backfield :: Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports

Isiah Pacheco over 18.5 receiving yards (-110)

With no Jerick McKinnon, we should expect Patrick Mahomes to continue to target Pacheco. In four games played since Week 12, Pacheco has seen an average of five targets and 20.5 receiving yards per game. Not only will Miami be hurting defensively on Saturday, but they allowed an average of 42 receiving yards per game to running backs across the last eight games of the regular season.

Tyreek Hill under 86.5 receiving yards (-110)

This feels like sacrilege but I am slightly fading Hill this Saturday. Yes, I know there is a revenge game narrative and yes, I know Hill is no stranger to Arrowhead and its conditions, but Tua Tagavailoa is. Tua has lost each of his five coldest starts, and in those starts, he completed just 57% of his passes and threw seven interceptions with only five total touchdowns. As good as Hill may be, he has been playing injured and he has failed to exceed this mark in three of his last four games played, and now he’ll be playing with an injured ankle in frigid temperatures. Jaylen Waddle will be back for the Dolphins, as should Raheem Mostert. Hill will go just under this mark on Saturday.

AFC Wild-Card Round Betting Preview: Dolphins vs. Chiefs

Raheem Mostert anytime TD (+135)

If he plays, he scores -- at least, that’s what the numbers say. Mostert averaged 1.2 touchdowns per game during the regular season, so I’ll take the plus-money bet for him to punch one in again on Saturday. 

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