NFC Wild-Card Round Betting Preview: Packers vs. Cowboys

Dallas is a heavy home favorite against Green Bay as head coach Mike McCarthy gets another crack at his old team.

With and without Mike McCarthy, the Green Bay Packers have dominated the Dallas Cowboys for the better part of two decades. Green Bay went 7–3 against Dallas in 13 seasons under McCarthy (including playoff wins in the 2014 and ’16 seasons) and the Packers beat the Cowboys in 2022 in McCarthy's return to Lambeau Field.

Dallas’ postseason struggles are well-documented: Since winning Super Bowl XXX in 1996, the Cowboys have not been back to the NFC Championship Game. This team has as good a shot as any to end that drought, with the No. 1 offense in the NFL and a dominant defense, but a hot Green Bay team could play spoiler once again in the playoffs.

The Packers (9-8), who have won four games in a row in the series, are 7.5-point underdogs to Dallas (12-5) in Sunday’s wild-card matchup. The over/under is 50.5 points, according to SI Sportsbook, making it the second-highest projected total of the weekend after Rams-Lions.

The Cowboys are the only team in the league that finished undefeated at home, where they posted a plus-172 point differential across eight games. Dallas last lost in front of its fans in Week 1 of the 2022 season and has gone 16–0 at AT&T Stadium since then.

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Packers vs. Cowboys Odds and Game Info

Moneyline: Packers (+275) | Cowboys (-345)
Spread: GB +7.5 (-125) | DAL -7.5 (+100)
Total: 50.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Saturday, Jan. 13, 4:30 p.m. ET | FOX

Despite all their success this season -- or perhaps because of it -- there is a lot of pressure on Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott to advance this week :: Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports

Green Bay and Dallas Key Stats and Fun Facts:

• Both the Cowboys (10–7) and Packers (9–8) finished with winning records against the spread.
• Overs hit at a high rate for both Dallas (9–8) and Green Bay (10–7) and they were especially common for the Packers on the road (7–2).
• The Packers rank 31st in the NFL in interceptions (seven) and tied for 26th in total takeaways (18), whereas the Cowboys are tied for the second-fewest turnovers (16).

Packers vs. Cowboys Best Bet: Cowboys -7.5 (-110)

Green Bay ended the year with three straight wins to secure the final NFC playoff spot. It was a 17–9 victory in Week 18 against a surging Bears team that punched the Packers’ ticket after road wins over the Vikings and Panthers in the preceding weeks. The play of the defense came under fire after a close call against Carolina in which the worst team in the league put up a season-high 30 points, but Joe Barry’s unit came to play in the finale and kept Chicago out of the end zone.

Jordan Love logged his fourth straight game with multiple passing touchdowns against the Bears and ended the season by accounting for 11 scores and just one turnover over his final four games. He also had a different leading receiver in each outing: Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, Bo Melton and Jayden Reed traded turns leading the team.

As further evidence this offense is clicking at the right time, Aaron Jones ran for over 100 yards in each of his final three games. Buffalo showed just a few weeks ago that a physical ground game is one way to beat the Cowboys.

On offense, Green Bay finished roughly in the middle of the pack in passing yards, rushing yards and points (22.5) per game after Love’s stellar first season as a starter. The fourth-year pro threw for over 4,000 yards and his 32 passing touchdowns were second in the NFL behind only Dak Prescott (36). Defensively, the Packers snuck into the top 10 in scoring (20.6 points per game) and though they defended the pass well, they were routinely gashed on the ground.

Dallas doesn’t profile as an offense that will take advantage of Green Bay’s suspect run defense. Though Tony Pollard clawed his way to 1,005 yards on 252 carries, he scored just five times on 60 red-zone rushing attempts. The Cowboys led the league in scoring (29.9 points per game) behind the play of Prescott and his blossoming connection with CeeDee Lamb.

Prescott cut down on interceptions dramatically — his nine picks were his fewest in a full season since 2018 — and he completed a career-high 69.5% of his throws. He and Lamb connected 135 times to lead the league and the fourth-year receiver finished second in receiving yards (1,749) and third in receiving touchdowns (12). Jake Ferguson and Brandin Cooks also emerged as reliable options behind Lamb in the pecking order and Cooks is on a three-game scoring streak heading into the playoffs.

There were bumps along the way — an upset loss to the Cardinals and blowouts at the hands of the 49ers and Bills — but Dallas’ defense was one of the most impactful units all year. Cornerback Daron Bland led the league with nine interceptions, five of which he returned for touchdowns to set an NFL record, and edge rusher Micah Parsons recorded a ho-hum 14 sacks. The Cowboys held their opponents to 10 points or fewer six times and rank fifth in both scoring defense (18.5 points per game) and passing yards allowed.

The metric that might matter the most for this game is these teams’ contrasting home and away records. Dallas has the best home-field advantage in the NFL at the moment and covering spreads larger than a touchdown has been no issue. Green Bay finished just 4–5 on the road after winning its last two games against the Panthers and Vikings. For their part, only three Packers losses were by more than one score. Conversely, nine of the Cowboys’ wins came by two-plus scores.

Don’t let the extra half point scare you off — Dallas routinely dismantled teams by double-digits at home all year long and will keep that going in the playoffs against lesser competition.

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