NFL Playoffs: Rams vs. Lions Wildcard Predictions and Best Picks

Los Angeles is a road underdog in Matthew Stafford’s return to Detroit.

When Jared Goff returned to Los Angeles in 2021 as a member of the  Detroit Lions, the Matthew Stafford-led Los Angeles Rams spoiled his homecoming. Two years later, Goff has an opportunity to return the favor as Stafford heads back to Detroit in what’s bound to be an emotional game.

The Lions ended a 30-year division title drought this season only to be matched up with their all-time leading passer in the playoffs. It was Stafford who took Detroit to its last playoff appearance in 2016 and Stafford who led Los Angeles to a Super Bowl win two years ago. Now, his Rams are 3.5-point underdogs to Goff’s Lions in Sunday’s wild card game at Ford Field. The 51.5-point over/under is the highest of the first round, according to SI Sportsbook.

Los Angeles (10–7) storms into the Motor City on a four-game winning streak. Were it not for a controversial call in a tight Week 17 loss to Dallas, Detroit (12–5) could say the same, but the Lions still tied their franchise record for wins in a season by beating Minnesota in the season finale and have won three of their last four.

Rams vs. Lions Odds and Game Info

Moneyline: Rams (+140) | Lions (-167)

Spread: LAR +3.5 (-125) | DET -3.5 (+100)

Total: 51.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Game Info: Sunday, Jan. 14, 1 p.m. ET 

Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford take on their former teams as the Lions host the Rams in the NFC Wildcard round :: Robert Hanashiro/USA TODAY Sports

Los Angeles and Detroit Key Stats and Fun Facts:

• The Lions (11–6) tied for the highest over rate in the NFL and the Rams (9–8) also saw overs hit more often than not.
• Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff both enjoyed sound protection as they tied for 18th in the NFL with 30 sacks taken, although Stafford played in two fewer games than Goff.
• The Rams were one of the least accurate kicking teams in the league this season (32–43 on field goals, 32–37 on extra points) while the Lions were one of the most accurate (19–21 on field goals, 48–52 on extra points).

Rams vs. Lions Best Bet: Rams +3.5 (-125)

Los Angeles eked out a 21–20 win over San Francisco in Week 18 with both teams resting their starters. The week off for the Rams did them well considering the time some of their key starters missed this season, like Kupp, Williams and even Stafford. L.A. survived a close call against the Giants the week before to clinch a playoff berth. Stafford ended his four-game streak without an interception by throwing two picks in a 25–25 win over New York while Williams punched in three touchdowns.

It’s difficult to overstate just how essential the Rams’ young skill-position players were to their success. Nacua finished fourth in receiving yards (1,486) and set the rookie record for yards and catches (105) while Williams ran for 1,144 yards, third-most in the league, in just 12 games and became L.A.’s first 1,000-yard rusher since Todd Gurley. Both players were fifth-round picks over the last two years and they helped the Rams finish among the top 10 offenses by points per game (23.8).

Perennial All-Pro Aaron Donald still anchors L.A.’s defense, though this unit isn’t what it once was. The Rams rank bottom three in takeaways (15), bottom 10 in sacks (40) and in the bottom half of the league in points allowed (22.2). The Lions, who are fifth in scoring (27.1 points per game) will be able to move the ball against this defense, especially in the comfort of a dome.

Rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions will play in front of a home crowd in the playoffs for the first time since 1994 :: Kirthmon F. Dozier/USA TODAY Network

Detroit’s offense is among the best in the NFL, coming in at No. 3 in yards per game (394.8) with a balanced attack that ranks second in passing (258.9) and fifth in rushing (135.9). Four Lions have at least 10 touchdowns this season: running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta, who’s questionable for Sunday’s game.

Goff finished with the second-most passing yards (4,575) in the league, a huge chunk of which went to St. Brown, who finished top five in catches (119), yards (1,515) and receiving touchdowns (12) while LaPorta enjoyed one of the finest rookie seasons ever by a tight end. Montgomery gained over 1,000 yards on the ground and Gibbs, also a rookie, tallied over 1,000 total yards as he was also heavily involved as a receiver.

Very few defenses had any answer for Detroit this season, which is why offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is such a hot coaching candidate this cycle. The Lions cracked 30 points nine times and were held under 20 only three times. Home field is a real advantage for this team, especially given drastic Goff’s home/away splits: He’s thrown 19 touchdowns and six interceptions in eight home games and 11 touchdowns and six picks in nine games on the road.

Detroit has only lost twice at home this season and owns the NFL’s best record against the spread (12–5). However, Sean McVay has been here before. Los Angeles went on the road in the 2021 playoffs and upset the Buccaneers, the defending Super Bowl champs, in the divisional round on the way to a title. Plus, the Rams are hot, having won seven of eight (6–2 against the spread) since their Week 10 bye. Even if they don’t steal this game outright, it's hard to imagine them letting it get away from them. This game has all the makings of a shootout and it just might come down to who has the ball last.

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