NFL Wild-Card Weekend Best Bets, Player Props and Bold Picks
NFL wild-card weekend kicks off on Saturday and no doubt you’ll want to get in on the betting action.
We certainly do!
I’ve gathered our team of experts to post their favorite bets for the playoffs. Each expert will risk one unit on a game wager and one unit on a player prop each week of the postseason. We’ll keep the bets rolling through the Super Bowl, and crown a winner at the end based on ROI.
Follow along and fade or follow your favorite analysts!
Let’s get this playoff party started!
The Chiefs host the Dolphins in Kansas City on Saturday night.
Matt Verderame's Best Bet:
Chiefs -4.5 (-110)
The Dolphins are literally going to be without more than half of their defensive starters against Patrick Mahomes in a playoff game. And while Kansas City’s offense hasn’t been what it normally is, the Chiefs still finished the year ranked ninth in yardage (15th in points). Factor in Kansas City’s second-ranked defense, and the Chiefs should cover at home.
Matt Verderame's Best Player Prop:
Puka Nacua OVER 5.5 receptions (-175)
Nacua has been brilliant, setting the all-time record for receiving yardage for a rookie. Against the Lions, he faces a defense checking in 27th against the pass. Nacua could have an enormous game alongside fellow wideout Cooper Kupp.
Gilberto Manzano's Best Bet:
Packers +10.5 (-161)
Jordan Love has an abundance of weapons and ended the regular season as one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Expect Packers coach Matt LaFleur to have a productive game plan against Dan Quinn’s defense, which has struggled at times this season. Cowboys fans might be sweating until the final seconds of this compelling matchup.
Gilberto Manzano's Best Player Prop
James Cook over 14.5 carries (-110)
Josh Allen’s rocket arm might be no match for the high winds and snow expected to hit Highmark Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Look for the Bills to lean on Pro Bowl running back James Cook, who was instrumental during the team’s five-game winning streak to end the regular season.
Michael Fabiano's Best Bet
Chiefs -4.5 (-110)
The weather is going to be bitter cold in Kansas City this weekend, which is bad news for the Miami Dolphins. In their past 10 games where the temperature was 40 degrees or colder, (it’s going to be around zero this weekend), the Fins are winless. What’s more, Miami has lost each of those 10 contests by an average of 17 points. With a 4.5 point spread, I like Kansas City.
Michael Fabinao's Best Player Prop
Jordan Love over 6.5 rushing yards (-115)
Love has run for at least seven yards in 11 of 17 games, but he’s hit that mark in all but two road games. In fact, he’s averaging 17.7 rushing yards on the road. Dallas has also allowed opposing quarterbacks to rush for at least 20 yards five times in their nine games at the Jerry Dome.
Both Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford play their former teams on Sunday Night.
Robert Hanashiro/USA TODAY Sports
Jennifer Piacenti's Best Bet
Rams +3.5 (-125)
Matt Stafford and Jared Goff in a revenge game narrative is going to add up to a close game. In fact, I’m tempted to take the Rams in an upset, but I’ll play it safe and just take the 3.5 points. Both secondaries have struggled, and both quarterbacks have playoff and Super Bowl experience- but only one of them has a ring. Give me the Rams plus the points.
Jennifer Piacenti's Best Player Prop
CJ Stroud over 1.5 passing TDs (+120)
I’m taking a plus-money prop to try to jump out ahead of the other experts here. Stroud has passed for 2+ touchdowns in eight of 15 games played this season, and yes the Browns defense is tough, but I can’t see the Texans putting up a fight without Stroud throwing a pair of scores. The implied team total here is 21 for Houston, and backup QB Davis Mills was able to throw for two vs. this Browns defense in Week 16, so I’ll happily take the plus-money payout for the likely Rookie of the Year.
Kyle Wood's Best Bet
Rams +3.5 (-125)
Since their Week 10 bye, the Rams are 7–1 straight up and 6–2 against the spread. That one loss was in overtime to the Ravens in Baltimore — there’s no shame in that. Los Angeles is also 2–0 as an underdog and 3–1 on the road against the spread during that stretch. The Lions did post an NFL-best 12–5 record against the spread this season, but no quarterback has won more at Ford Field than Matthew Stafford, who will be making his homecoming this weekend. Between Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams and Cooper Kupp (remember him?), the Rams have more than enough firepower to hang with Detroit and possibly even pull off the upset, but take the points just to be safe.
Kyle Wood's Best Player Prop
Joe Flacco Over 37.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
Flacco has done nothing but air the ball out for the last few years. In his last 10 starts, including five this season in Cleveland, he’s attempting 41.3 passes per game. That number is down to 40.8 this year with the Browns, which would lead the league were he qualified. This team has changed its offensive identity after injuries to its star running back and stout offensive line and it’s working. In a 14-point win against the Texans just a few weeks ago, Flacco still threw the ball 42 times. Win or lose Saturday, Flacco is going down throwing.
Craig Ellenport's Best Bet
Bills -9.5 (-118)
Yes, it’s the biggest line of the weekend and yes, the weather could be a factor. But this is the AFC’s No. 2 seed against a team that simply does not belong in the playoffs. I felt the same way about Pittsburgh when it last made the postseason in 2021. The Steelers had gotten off to an amazing start that year thanks to a creampuff schedule. I didn’t see them as a playoff team and, sure enough, they lost to Kansas City by 21 in the first round. Buffalo, during its current five-game winning streak, is allowing an average of 16.8 points per game. I doubt the Steelers crack 10 here, so Josh Allen should get an easy cover.
Craig Ellenport's Best Player Prop
Elijah Moore anytime TD (+188)
It was just two weeks ago that Amari Cooper racked up 265 yards and two touchdowns against Houston, so you know the Texans’ secondary is going to be laser-focused on stopping the Browns’ No. 1 receiver. Couple that with the fact Cooper might not be 100% for this game and I’ll take the plus money on Cleveland’s No. 2 wideout getting some love. Moore is averaging six targets per game since Joe Flacco took over at quarterback, and I’m confident one of his targets Saturday results in six points.
Bill Enright's Best Bet: Browns -2.5 (-110)
I've seen enough from the Browns with Joe Flacco under-center to fully embrace the idea that this offense is capable of dicing up opposing defenses. Was I a non-believer for Flacco's first few games? Absolutely. Do I now think he can help them get to the AFC Championship? Also a definitive YES. But first they'll have to get by the Texans, something they did handily just a few short weeks ago when Flacco tossed three touchdowns and 368 yards in Houston. They won that game 36-22. They'll win by at least a touchdown in wild-card weekend which makes this point spread of a measly 2.5 the most hammer-worthy spread of the weekend!
Bill Enright's Best Player Prop
David Njoku Over 54.5 receiving yards (-120)
Clearly, I'm all in the Browns. I'm double-dipping my best pick against the spread with a player prop from the same team. Njoku has been dynamite since Flacco took over. He's exceeded this yardage total in six of his last eight games and in four of five with Flacco at quarterback. One of the games he fell short was Flacco's first game in a Browns uniform. In Week 16 when the Browns and Texans met in Houston, Njoku had six grabs for just 44 yards which would have fallen short on this prop. So why am I taking the over this week? Pretty simple..I'm not expecting Amari Cooper to pop off for 265 yards again. Instead, look for Flacco to spread it around a bit more evenly.
