AFC Divisional Round Betting Preview: Texans vs. Ravens

Baltimore, the No. 1 seed in the AFC, is favored by more than a touchdown at home against Houston.

C.J. Stroud began his career on the road against the vaunted Baltimore Ravens defense in the 2023 season opener. The No. 2 pick in the draft had more downs than ups in that 25–9 defeat, but in the four months since that matchup, Stroud has asserted himself as one of the game’s best young quarterbacks. He further drove that point home in a resounding 45–14 beatdown of the Cleveland Browns last week to set up a return to Baltimore in the divisional round of the playoffs.

The top-seeded Ravens enjoyed a first-round bye, which gave MVP favorite Lamar Jackson and Co. more time to get healthy and gear up for a playoff run as several starters rested in Week 18. While Baltimore (13–4) was idle, the Houston Texans (10–7) handed Cleveland — one of just three teams that beat the Ravens this year — a lopsided loss.

The Ravens are 9.5-point favorites against the Texans at M&T Bank Stadium on Saturday. Baltimore easily covered the identical 9.5-point spread in Week 1, though that game was surprisingly close at halftime. The over/under is set at 43.5 points, according to SI Sportsbook, which gives Houston an implied total of just 17.

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Texans vs. Ravens Odds and Game Info

Moneyline: Texans (+350) | Ravens (-500)
Spread: HOU +9.5 (-110) | BAL -9.5 (-110)
Total: 43.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Saturday, Jan. 20, 4:30 p.m. ET | ESPN, ABC

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens defeated the Texans in week 1, 25-9

Houston and Baltimore Key Stats and Fun Facts:

• The Ravens are 5–4 against the spread at home (6–3 straight up) and the Texans are 5–3 ATS on the road (4–4 straight up).
• Baltimore allowed the fewest points per game (16.5) in the regular season and held its last four opponents under 20 points.
• This ties the Texans’ largest underdog position since Week 3, whebn they scored a 37–17 upset against the Jaguars in Jacksonville.

Best Bet: Under 43.5 (-110)

Stroud’s legend only grew when he became the youngest quarterback to ever win a playoff game at 22 years old. After a back-and-forth start that saw the Browns hold a 14–10 lead early in the second quarter, the Texans took over. Stroud hit Brevin Jordan for a 76-yard touchdown to take back the lead and kick off a run of 35 unanswered points, including a pair of pick-sixes in the third quarter.

Nico Collins led the team in receiving for the third game in a row with 96 yards and a touchdown on six catches. He accounted for a huge chunk of Stroud’s production as the first-year pro finished with 274 yards and three scores against the No. 1 pass defense in the regular season.

Houston wasn’t particularly productive on the ground as the team ran for 76 yards total at 3.5 yards per carry, although Devin Singletary gained 66 yards on 13 carries and put the game away for good with a fourth-quarter touchdown from 19 yards out.

The Texans’ offensive success, though impressive against a defense of Cleveland’s caliber, shouldn’t come as a huge shock. However, the stand DeMeco Ryans’ defense made after Joe Flacco got off to a hot start was particularly impressive. Houston shut down the run, contained Amari Cooper and capitalized on both turnovers it forced, returning interceptions 82 and 36 yards to the end zone.

Defending Jackson, a dual-threat playmaker who just had his best season as a passer, is an entirely different ballgame than Flacco, a veteran gunslinger. However, it’s worth noting Jackson had one of his worst games of the year against the Texans. He did not account for a touchdown, threw an interception, took four sacks, threw for just 169 yards and only ran for 38.

Jackson played his best football in December against a tough schedule. The Ravens outlasted the Rams 37–31 in overtime and then dismantled the Jaguars, 49ers and Dolphins in order by at least 14 points apiece. Jackson threw 11 touchdowns during that stretch, including five against Miami the last time he took the field on New Year’s Eve.

Rookie receiver Zay Flowers emerged as the team’s top pass-catching option after Mark Andrews went down with an ankle injury in November. Flowers has five touchdowns in five games since Andrews’ injury, but the All-Pro tight end is reportedly trending toward a return this weekend after logging a limited practice Tuesday. Isaiah Likely has filled in admirably for Andrews, who still leads the team in touchdown receptions (six) despite appearing in just 10 games.

Baltimore led the NFL in rushing by a wide margin and Jackson was the engine of that attack for the fifth straight season as he led all quarterbacks with 838 yards on the ground. With J.K. Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell lost for the year, the Ravens turned to Gus Edwards and the veteran was automatic inside the five, where he scored 12 of his 13 touchdowns on 19 attempts.

John Harbaugh’s team, for all its regular season success, hasn’t been back to the AFC championship game since 2012. Baltimore lost its steam at the end of the year for the last few seasons as Jackson’s health has waned. That’s hardly the case this year as the Ravens’ lone loss since Week 10 was without Jackson and several other starters in the finale. Still, this line is too large after what Houston accomplished last week — as an underdog no less — and given Jackson’s playoff struggles: Stroud (1–0) already has as many playoff wins as Jackson (1–3).

That said, the best play here is the under. This is a rookie quarterback going on the road against one of the league’s best defensive coordinators in Mike McDonald. The under has hit more often than not for both Baltimore (9–8) and the Texans (11–6) this season and fewer than 43 points have been scored in the last five Ravens postseason games as their defense shines and their offense tends to struggle in January.

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