AFC Divisional Playoffs: Chiefs vs. Bills Odds and Picks

Buffalo is a slim home favorite against Kansas City in Patrick Mahomes’ first ever road playoff game.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have played regularly in recent years, having matched up six times in the last four seasons. The two AFC powerhouses split those games, 3–3. Buffalo took the last two, including a Week 14 win at Arrowhead, while Kansas City won both playoff matchups in 2022 and 2021.

The twist this time around is that the Bills have home field, which means Patrick Mahomes is about to play on the road in the postseason for the first time in his career. The only playoff games Mahomes has left Kansas City for were his three Super Bowl appearances.

Buffalo is a 2.5-point home favorite against the Chiefs in this Sunday evening showdown, which easily has the tightest spread of the weekend. The over/under is set at 45.5 points, according to SI Sportsbook.

Winter weather in Orchard Park, New York, won’t bother Kansas City, which defeated the Miami Dolphins 26–7 in sub-zero temperatures in the wild card round last week. However, the Bills (31–7) are the only team with a better home record than the Chiefs (31–10) over the last four years. Josh Allen and Buffalo (11–6) built on that sterling record with a 31–17 win over the Steelers at Highmark Stadium on Monday to set up a divisional-round rematch with Kansas City (11–6).

Chiefs vs. Bills Odds and Game Info

Moneyline: Chiefs (+120) | Bills (-143)

Spread: KC +2.5 (-110) | BUF -2.5 (-118)

Total: 45.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Game Info: Sunday, Jan. 21, 6:30 p.m. ET | CBS

Chiefs vs. Bills Best Bet: 

Bills -2.5 (-118)

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will meet in the playoffs for the third time. The Chiefs have won the previous two postseason bouts :: Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City and Buffalo Key Stats and Fun Facts:

• The Chiefs (57) finished second in sacks ahead of the fourth-place Bills (54).
• Josh Allen accounted for an NFL-best 44 touchdowns (29 passing, 15 rushing) in the regular season, 17 more than Patrick Mahomes (27 passing).
• Unders hit at an exceptionally high rate for both Kansas City (12–5) and Buffalo (11–6) this season. The under cashed in their Week 14 game as their combined 37 points fell well short of the 49.5-point total.

The version of Kansas City that dismantled the Dolphins last week looked more like the team that won the Super Bowl last season than the one that limped to a 4–4 record down the stretch after its Week 10 bye. The Chiefs’ shot at a title defense waned at times as Travis Kelce began to show signs of decline and Mahomes piled up interceptions.

Against an explosive Miami offense, though, K.C. looked every bit like a threat to go back-to-back in the Big Game. The Chiefs outgained the Dolphins by over 100 yards and looked more physical for all four quarters, specifically when Isiah Pacheco was pounding his way to 89 rushing yards and a score on a season-high 24 touches.

Mahomes finished with 262 passing yards, almost half of which went to Rashee Rice, who set a franchise rookie record with 130 receiving yards on eight catches and a touchdown to boot. Kelce added seven catches for 70 yards, his most catches in a game since Week 11 and most yards since Week 14. Rice and Kelce alone outgained Miami’s receivers.

Kansas City kept kicker Harrison Butker busy as he connected on all four of his field goal attempts from inside 35 yards. The Chiefs scored on all six trips inside the 20 but found the end zone just twice. Settling for three was not an issue, though, as their defense never allowed Dolphins into the red zone.

Tua Tagovailoa was held under 200 passing yards by Steve Spagnuolo’s defense for the second time this year. The No. 1 rushing offense in the regular season was also largely limited by Kansas City’s swarming defense, further testament to a unit that finished second in points (17.3) and yards (289.8) allowed per game.

Allen got the best of that defense back in December in a game best known for the infamous lateral from Kelce to Kadarius Toney that didn’t count because Toney was called offsides. The Bills won 20–17, a victory that ended up deciding home field advantage.

Neither Allen nor Mahomes played their best in that meeting. They each threw an interception and completed fewer than 60% of their attempts. In Stefon Diggs’ worst game of the year — four catches for 24 yards — Allen found success by dumping the ball off to running back James Cook, who had a season-high 83 receiving yards.

Diggs and rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid hardly made an impact against Kansas City but they both showed up against the Steelers. Diggs hauled in seven catches for 52 yards and Kincaid led the team with 59 yards on three grabs. The rookie also caught one of Allen’s three touchdown passes. Allen was especially active on the ground: His 52-yard touchdown run in the second quarter put Buffalo up 21–0 before Pittsburgh began to whittle away at the lead.

The Bills’ defense is just a step behind the Chiefs’ as it ranks fourth in points (18.3) and ninth in yards (307.2) allowed per game. Buffalo forced two turnovers against the Steelers and finished third in takeaways (30) this season. That could be a deciding factor against a K.C. team that was tied for the seventh-most giveaways (28) and was plagued by drops.

Kansas City (9–7–1) covered at a higher rate than the Bills (7–10) this season. However, no team is hotter than Buffalo heading into the divisional round. Sean McDermott’s team has won six straight, a streak that started against the Chiefs, and the two games it didn’t cover were as a favorite of 12-plus points.

The only time Allen and Mahomes went head-to-head in Orchard Park was in 2020 and the Bills won 26–17. It’s hard to pick against Kansas City in a rare underdog position, but Buffalo has been playing with its back against the wall for over a month now and has delivered at every turn.

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