AFC Championship Game Betting Preview: Chiefs vs. Ravens

Patrick Mahomes is a road underdog for the second week in a row with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are back in the AFC championship game for the sixth straight season, meaning Mahomes has never missed the conference title game as the team’s starter. The Baltimore Ravens haven’t made it this far in the postseason since their Super Bowl run in 2012 and Lamar Jackson has never played on this stage in his career.

Despite the disparity in playoff experience — and success — the top-seeded Ravens (13–4) are favored by 3.5 points over the Chiefs (11–6) at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. The over/under is 44.5 points, according to SI Sportsbook.

Mahomes improved to 1–0 on the road in the postseason with Sunday’s 27–24 win over Josh Allen and the host Buffalo Bills. Jackson picked up his first playoff win at home by dispatching C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans 34–10 in the divisional round on Saturday to improve to 2–3 in the playoffs.

If Jackson indeed wins his second MVP award a few weeks from now, as he is widely expected to do, he and Mahomes will have combined to win four of the last six. The two All-Pro quarterbacks have gone head-to-head four times before; the first three meetings went to Mahomes but Jackson won the most recent matchup in 2021, a 36–35 shootout.

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Chiefs vs. Ravens Odds and Game Info

Moneyline: Chiefs (+160) | Ravens (-200)
Spread: KC +3.5 (-110) | BAL -3.5 (-118)
Total: 44.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Sunday, Jan. 28, 3 p.m. ET | CBS

Kansas City and Baltimore Key Stats and Fun Facts:

• The Chiefs (11–7–1 ATS) and Ravens (12–6) have been two of the best teams to bet on all season long.
• Kansas City’s 7–2 straight up road record is the second-best in the NFL, only behind Baltimore’s 6–1 mark.
• Patrick Mahomes is 3–2 all-time in the AFC championship game. His only losses were to Tom Brady’s Patriots in 2019 and Joe Burrow’s Bengals in 2022.

Best Bet: Over 44.5 (-110)

Despite a down regular season by Mahomes’s and head coach Andy Reid’s lofty standards, Kansas City quickly rounded into form in the playoffs. First came a 26–7 drubbing of the Miami Dolphins in sub-zero temperatures at Arrowhead Stadium. Travis Kelce had his best game in months, rookie receiver Rashee Rice had a record-breaking performance and Steve Spagnuolo’s defense suffocated Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins’ high-flying offense.

The Chiefs’ reward for that wild card win was a trip to Western New York, where the Bills awaited. As they had done two other times in the past four seasons, Kansas City sent Buffalo home in the playoffs after Tyler Bass’s 44-yard field goal attempt went wide right. Mahomes found Kelce twice for touchdowns and running back Isiah Pacheco ran wild once again. Allen tried to do it all, throwing for a touchdown and running for two more, but the Chiefs kept everything in front of them and didn’t allow a single play of 20-plus yards.

The only defense that allowed fewer points per game in the regular season than Kansas City (17.3) was Baltimore (16.5). And so far in the playoffs, they’re first and second in scoring defense again. The Ravens also led the NFL in sacks (60), though the Chiefs were a close second (57). However, neither team has kept up that pressure on opposing quarterbacks in the postseason: Spagnuolo’s defense has two sacks in two games and Mike MacDonald’s did not sack Stroud at all last week.

Baltimore did hold Stroud, who led the league in passing yards per game, to 175 yards through the air and shut down the run as well. The only touchdown the Texans scored came on a punt return. The Ravens were without top cornerback Marlon Humphrey (calf) in Week 18 and in the divisional round. However, both Humphrey and tight end Mark Andrews (ankle) could return for the AFC title game, which would be a huge boost for Baltimore on both sides of the ball.

Andrews hasn’t played since Week 11 and Isaiah Likely has filled in well in his stead. The second-year pro has five touchdowns in seven games without Andrews and he caught one last week.

Jackson put his checkered history of playoff performances to bed against Houston and quickly shed two weeks of rust. His passing numbers (16-22 for 152 yards and two touchdowns) look somewhat pedestrian but that’s because the Ravens got whatever they wanted on the ground. Jackson led the team with 100 rushing yards on 11 carries and two more touchdowns, including the go-ahead score in the third quarter.

Baltimore finished with 229 yards on 42 carries for an efficient 5.5 yards per carry average. That allowed coach John Harbaugh’s team to win the time of possession battle, 37:35 to 22:25 and keep the ball out of Stroud’s hands. The Chiefs held the ball for only 32 more seconds than the Texans, but they routinely ripped off chunk plays against the Bills to overcome that deficit.

Unsurprisingly, unders hit more often than overs for these two teams with their elite defenses. Including the playoffs, unders are 13–6 for Kansas City and 9–8–1 for the Ravens. Rain in the forecast, especially given the Chiefs’ drop issues this season, is also a factor to consider. However, given the talent of these two quarterbacks, 44.5 points feels like a very modest total, and with Harrison Butker and Justin Tucker kicking, Kansas City and Baltimore shouldn’t have many scoreless drives even when these defenses do their job in the red zone.

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