NBA Best Bets and Bold Predictions: Celtics vs. Heat

Boston is a road favorite in Miami in its first game at Kayesa Center since the Eastern Conference Finals.

The Miami Heat dropped their fourth straight game Wednesday night and they have a quick turnaround to Thursday’s visit from the Boston Celtics as part of NBA Rivals Week.

Boston and Miami have met in the Eastern Conference Finals the last two seasons. Both series went seven games; the Celtics won in 2022, the Heat won in 2023. These teams have seen each other plenty over the last few years and Boston won the first of three regular-season meetings, 119-111, back in October.

The Celtics have a clean injury report for Thursday’s game in South Florida, which will wrap up their three-game road trip. Meanwhile, the Heat might be without both Jaime Jacquez Jr. (groin) and Kevin Love (illness), both of whom are questionable, to finish out their quick two-game homestand. Jacquez missed Wednesday’s 105–96 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies and Love exited early.

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Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Odds

Spread: Celtics -7.5 (-118) | Heat +7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: BOS (-333) | MIA (+240)
Total: 224.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-118)
Game Info: Thursday, Jan. 25 | 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT

Terry Rozier, who made his debut with the Heat Wednesday night, began his NBA career with the Celtics.  :: Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports

Boston has enjoyed two full days of rest since its 119–110 win over the Dallas Mavericks on Monday. Jayson Tatum led all scorers with 39 points and Jaylen Brown added 34 to help the C’s survive Luka Dončić’s 33-point triple-double. Boston improved to 14–9 on the road with its third straight win away from TD Garden.

The Celtics are the only team in the league that ranks top three in both offensive and defensive rating. And though their offense has taken a slight step back so far in the new year, their defense is as good as ever. No team attempts (42.8) or makes (16.2) as many threes as Boston, which also defends the arc about as well as any team in the NBA.

One area of weakness that reared its head in the first game against Miami was the Celtics’ lack of scoring off the bench. Every Boston starter scored at least 17 points in that eight-point win, but coach Joe Mazzulla only got eight points from his second unit. Erik Spoelstra has been able to rely on a bit more production off his bench and the Heat just got deeper with the recent addition of Terry Rozier, who spent the first four years of his career with the Celtics.

Miami lost to a shorthanded Memphis team at home Wednesday in Rozier’s debut. The Heat didn’t trot out a full roster, either, but their woeful offense reared its head as they failed to score 100 points for the sixth time in their last 10 games. Tyler Herro led the team with 18 points and Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Caleb Martin chipped in 15 apiece, but the team shot just 40% from the field and 32% from deep.

Defense is where Miami excels. Spoelstra’s squad ranks top 10 in defensive rating and is No. 5 so far in January. It’s the offense that isn’t doing its job as the Heat have lost three straight games in which they held their opponent under 110 points.

Look for Boston’s defense to keep Miami’s offense in check. This is the kind of game the Heat, specifically Butler, show up for, but it’s also a back-to-back. Miami has failed to finish in triple digits in three of their five back-to-backs this season against lesser competition than the Celtics, who have the best record in the NBA.

Best Bet: Heat Under 107.5 Points (-102)

Bold Prediction: Derrick White Scores 20+ Points

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