Every Rushing Prop Bet for Super Bowl LVIII

Analyzing the available rushing props for Christian McCaffrey, Isiah Pacheco and more.

The importance of the ground game is not lost on the Kansas City Chiefs or the San Francisco 49ers ahead of Super Bowl LVIII. The Big Game this year features Christian McCaffrey, the regular-season rushing champ, and Isiah Pacheco, the playoff rushing yards leader.

The two running backs took very different paths to arrive at this point in their respective careers. McCaffrey is a seven-year veteran and a former top-10 pick who was acquired by the 49ers in a blockbuster deal in the middle of the 2022 campaign. He’s also set to make his Super Bowl debut on Feb. 11. Pacheco is a second-year pro and a former seventh-round selection by the Chiefs in the 2022 draft who won Super Bowl LVII with Kansas City a season ago.

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Kansas City and San Francisco have relied on their workhorse running backs throughout their playoff runs and both Pacheco and McCaffrey figure to play prominent roles in this Super Bowl rematch (even though neither player was with his current team when these two met in Super bowl LIV). However, wide receiver Deebo Samuel has also displayed his dual-threat abilities, Patrick Mahomes can scramble and, apparently, so can Brock Purdy.

Here’s a look at the available rushing props for those five players ahead of Super Bowl LVIII.

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Rushing Yards

Christian McCaffrey: 89.5
Over (-115) | Under (-115)

McCaffrey has had at least 90 yards 11 times in 18 games this year, including both playoff games. He averaged a career-high 5.4 yards per carry this season despite fielding 272 carries, the second-most in the NFL. McCaffrey has largely kept up that efficiency in the playoffs to the tune of 5.1 yards per carry. He had 90 yards in the NFC title game against a tough Lions front that finished second against the run this year.

Isiah Pacheco: 69.5
Over (-115) | Under (-115)

Pacheco’s efficiency has dipped in the postseason as he’s seen his number of attempts increase. His 4.6 yards per carry average is down to an even 4.0 in the playoffs as he’s fielded 21 rushes on average over those three games — Pacheco only had 20 carries once in the regular season. He’s flashed his efficiency at times, running for 6.5 yards per carry against the Bills in the divisional round and 7.2 against the Bills in Week 17, but Pacheco is primarily a bruiser who’s capable of handling heavy workloads. He’s eclipsed 70 yards just seven times in 17 games, including the playoffs.

Deebo Samuel: 14.5
Over (-110) | Under (-120)

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Samuel’s 37 rushing attempts and 225 rushing yards this season were his fewest since 2020. He only hit the 15-yard threshold six times in 17 games, though he did receive at least one carry in every game except against Green Bay, when he exited early. Samuel could go over this prop on a single run and he’ll likely get a handful of attempts to do so against a middling Kansas City run defense.

Patrick Mahomes: 25.5
Over (-115) | Under (-115)

Mahomes ran more this season than he ever has in his career and he typically takes off and runs at a higher rate in the playoffs. Crucially, he’s finished with at least 26 rushing yards in all three of his previous Super Bowl appearances. However, the only time he hit that mark in these playoffs was against the Dolphins thanks to a 28-yard scramble.

Brock Purdy: 12.5
Over (-110) | Under (-120)

Purdy flashed his rushing ability last week against Detroit and easily went over this modest total. He ran sparingly during the regular season, though he did finish with a career-high 57 yards in a loss to Cincinnati. Purdy has only gained 13 or more rushing yards six times all year but he’s now done so in back-to-back games.

Rushing + Receiving Yards

Christian McCaffrey: 130.5
Over (-115) | Under (-115)

McCaffrey’s rushing line implies he would need about 40 receiving yards to flirt with this combined total. He’s hit that mark seven times this season, including last week against Detroit. Of course, the beauty of betting a combined total for a player with McCaffrey’s skill set and talent is he could hit the over on rush yards alone, as he’s done twice already, or smash his receiving expectation, which puts less pressure on his rushing output. McCaffrey has four games with 50-plus receiving yards and two with at least 70. He’s also caught at least four passes in five straight games.

Christian McCafffrey and Isiah Pacheco have bopth been running strong in the postseason

Isiah Pacheco: 91.5
Over (-115) | Under (-115)

Pacheco is not nearly as involved as a receiver as McCaffrey and he’s not much of a yards after catch threat, either. So while he’s hauled in 50 of the 55 targets that have come his way this year, he’s had as many games with 30 or more receiving yards (five) as he does with zero or negative yards. Like McCaffrey, Pacheco can and has gone over this total without the help of any receiving yards, like he did against the Bills, though it’s worth noting Pacheco finished 137th out of 139 qualifiers in yards per catch (5.5).

Rushing Attempts

Christian McCaffrey: 18.5
Over (-120) | Under (-110)

McCaffrey is one of the most highly utilized running backs in the NFL but he’s also only commanded 19 or more carries once in his last seven games. However, he saw 20 in the NFC championship, his most since Week 11. McCaffrey routinely ends up with over 20 touches but his rushing attempts have been under 19 for the most part since mid-October on. He saw 19 or more four times in the first five games of the season and has only seen that many three times since then. Of course, the game script could help dictate his rushing attempts and the 49ers are favored. Plus, with the Super Bowl on the line, there’s nothing coach Kyle Shanahan has to preserve his star for. He’s already made it to the finale.

Isiah Pacheco: 16.5
Over (-120) | Under (-110)

The Chiefs have trusted Pacheco to tote the ball plenty already in the playoffs. He set a career-high with 24 attempts in the wild-card round and matched that mark in the AFC championship. Pacheco has just six games with 17-plus rushes this season but five of them have come over his last eight games. Coach Andy Reid might also look to lean on Pacheco against a San Francisco defense that surrendered big outputs to both Aaron Jones and David Montgomery.

Patrick Mahomes: 4.5
Over (-125) | Under (-105)

It’s unsurprising Mahomes’s rush attempts are juiced toward the over considering he’s gone over this number in three of his last five games. He typically takes off and runs a few times per game and he matched a career high earlier in the year with 10 rushing attempts. There were only six games in which he ran three times or fewer this season compared with 10 in which he recorded at least five rushing attempts.

Brock Purdy: 2.5
Over (-166) | Under (+130)

Purdy’s total is tilted even heavier toward the over on the heels of back-to-back games with at least five attempts. Before the divisional round, he hadn’t ran even three times in a game since Week 14. Putting aside last year’s NFC Championship when Purdy was injured, he ran three or more times in all four playoff games.

Rushing Touchdowns

Christian McCaffrey: 0.5
Over (-145) | Under (+114)

There were only five games in which McCaffrey did not score a rushing touchdown and he’s scored twice on the ground in each of the last two games. He now has six rushing touchdowns in six career playoff games and 18 rushing touchdowns in 18 games this year. McCaffrey’s 63 red-zone rushing attempts this season also led the league and he scored on 13 of those runs. The Chiefs have allowed only two rushing touchdowns in three playoff games and they tied for the fourth-fewest rushing touchdowns allowed (10) in the regular season.

Isiah Pacheco: 0.5
Over (+110) | Under (-140)

Pacheco has a nose for the end zone, especially in the playoffs. He’s found his way into the end zone on the ground in his last three games and now has four rushing touchdowns in six playoff games. Pacheco ran in 10 touchdowns this season, seven of which have come in his last seven games. He’s not as successful or involved inside the 20 as McCaffrey, but the 49ers did surrender three rushing touchdowns to the Lions last week and two of those scores came in the red zone.

Patrick Mahomes: 0.5
Over (+420) | Under (-660)

Mahomes has five rushing touchdowns under his belt in 17 career playoff games. Ironically, his only rushing score in the Super Bowl came against the 49ers in his first appearance. Mahomes is on a hefty scoring drought as he last found the end zone on Christmas Eve 2022. He didn’t run in a touchdown during the postseason last year, during the 2023 regular season and he’s yet to do so in these playoffs. One could say he’s due.

Brock Purdy: 0.5
Over (+575) | Under (-950)

Purdy’s in the midst of a touchdown drought of his own. He last crossed the goal line in Week 4 and that was only his fourth career rushing touchdown. Purdy ran in a score in the playoffs last year against Seattle but that was the only time he’s done so in his postseason career, hence his long odds to do so in the Super Bowl.

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