Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets for Super Bowl LVIII

The reigning Super Bowl MVP looks to repeat and here are a few markets you can get in on when he takes the field.

Patrick Mahomes’s player props have been released for Super Bowl LVIII.

The reigning NFL and Super Bowl MVP will be making his fourth Super Bowl appearance in six years. He has come away with the victory and MVP award twice.

The regular season was not spectacular for Mahomes, who passed for the second-fewest yards (4,031) and touchdowns (27) in his six years as the starting quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Those numbers likely contributed to the Chiefs being listed as underdogs in three of the four postseason games this year. However, it’s hard to fade playoff Mahomes, who has the Chiefs looking to become the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champion since the New England Patriots in 2003-04..

In 17 career playoff starts, Mahomes is 14-3. He has passed for 4.802 yards and 39 touchdowns. That’s an average of 282.5 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game.

This year, Mahomes passed for 239.3 yards per game and 1.3 touchdowns per game.

Let’s take a look at the early market:

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Passing Yards

260.5 Over (-115) | Under (-115)

Mahomes passed for a career-low 261.4 yards per game this season, and in the postseason he has averaged 239.3 per contest. The Niners have allowed an average of 232.4 passing yards per game this year, including postseason, and they have allowed only seven quarterbacks to surpass this prop. One of those seven QBs was Jared Goff in the NFC championship game.

Pass Attempts

36.5 Over (-115) | Under (-115)

Mahomes has exceeded this in two of three postseason contests, and he had 37-plus attempts 11 times during the regular season. In 19 games this year, the Niners have allowed an average of exactly 36.5 pass attempts per game. If this is going to be a close matchup -- and the spread indicates it should be with the Niners favored by 2 -- then Mahomes may have to continue to put the ball in the air.

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Pass Completions

25.5 Over (-105) | Under (-110)

The Niners have allowed an average of just 23.4 pass completions per game this year. Mahomes has completed 26 or more passes only eight times across 20 total games this year, including once in the postseason vs. the Ravens in the AFC championship win.

Interceptions

.5 Over (-125) | Under (-105)

San Francisco’s 22 regular-season interceptions tied with Chicago for the most in the league. Mahomes has yet to throw a pick in the postseason; however, his 14 regular-season interceptions were a career-high. Mahomes has thrown seven interceptions across 17 career playoff starts. The last time he threw a postseason pick was also the last time he lost a postseason game: the 2021 AFC championship game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals.

Rushing Yards

25.5 Over (-115) | Under (-115)

Mahomes has averaged 26.9 rushing yards per game in his playoff career, and he exceeded this prop in eight of those 17 games. During the regular season, Mahomes averaged 24.3 yards per game and he exceeded this prop in nine of 16 games. San Francisco has allowed only five quarterbacks to exceed this prop this season -- none of whom they faced in the postseason. 

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