The Cubs Are NL Central Favorites After Re-Signing Cody Bellinger

Chicago moves ahead of the Cardinals after news that last season’s NL Comeback Player of the Year will be back.

After signing outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger to a three-year, $80 million contract on Saturday, the Chicago Cubs are the new favorites to win the NL Central, slightly ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Chicago Cubs +180
St. Louis Cardinals +185
Cincinnati Reds +340
Milwaukee Brewers +700
Pittsburgh Pirates +1600

The Cubs and Cardinals had been co-favorites but the Cubs jumped to +180 with news of the deal that the NL Comeback Player of the Year will stay on the North Side. Bellinger put together a 26 home run season in 2023 while also stealing 20 bases and batting .307. The Cubs finished in second place in the NL Central in 2023 with an 83-win season, nine games behind the first-place Milwaukee Brewers, but only one game removed from a wild-card playoff berth. Most of last year’s team will return, with the addition of lefty Shota Imanaga from Japan’s Nippon Baseball league to the starting rotation.

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The Cardinals, with the second-best odds at +185, are coming off one of their worst finishes in recent history. After winning the division in two of the previous five seasons and 12 of 26 seasons since the NL Central was created, St. Louis finished in last place with only 71 wins in 2023. That was 21 games behind the first-place Brewers. Much of that slide was due to their underperforming pitching staff. Those deficiencies were addressed in the offseason with the additions of Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Sonny Gray.

The Reds are a young team that could surprise, if everything breaks right. Cincinnati has a glut of young talent, including Elly De La Cruz, who recently broke the Statcast record for the highest-velocity throw from an infielder. Starting pitcher Hunter Greene will anchor a rotation that also added Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez in the offseason.

The 2023 division champion Brewers are at +700 odds after losing former NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles in the offseason. Milwaukee has won the division in two of the last five seasons with the strength of their pitching. Brandon Woodruff is expected to miss most of the 2024 season. Still, there is promise with young rookie outfielder Jackson Chourio, who has drawn early comparisons to Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez and could boost the offense. At 7-to-1 odds, this is an attractive option. FanGraphs currently has the Brewers projected for more wins than the Reds and only two fewer wins than the Cardinals and Cubs.

Finally, the Pirates round out the division with +1600 odds. The Pirates have never won the division in 26 seasons since its creation and have not recorded a winning season since 2018.