NBA Best Bets and Bold Predictions: Mavericks vs. Cavaliers

Cleveland is favored at home against Dallas in a cross-conference matchup Tuesday night.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been the hottest team in the NBA since the start of January. However, the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference has dropped three of its last five games ahead of Tuesday’s tilt with the Dallas Mavericks.

When these teams met in Dallas in late December, the Cavaliers mounted a 20-point comeback without Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland or Evan Mobley and went on to win 113–110 despite a game-high 39 points from Luka Dončić, the league’s leading scorer. Cleveland (37–19) will have those three starters active for this quick one-game home stand at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse while Dallas (33–24) is expected to be without Dante Exum (knee).

Dončić (nose), Josh Green (elbow) and Derrick Lively (nose) are on the injury report as well but they’re all expected to play.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Spread: Mavericks +4.5 (-118) | Cavaliers -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: DAL (+150) | CLE (-188)
Total: 232.5 — Over (-118) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Tuesday, Feb. 27 | 7 p.m. ET

Cavs center Jarrett Allen is averaging 10.6 rebounds per game this season :: David Richard/USA TODAY Sports

Best Bet: Under 232.5 (-110)

Bold Prediction: Jarrett Allen Records 14+ Rebounds

The Mavericks dropped the first leg of a four-game road trip Sunday to fall to 15–11 in away games this season. Despite 62 combined points from the duo of Dončić and Kyrie Irving, the Indiana Pacers won 133–111 to put an end to Dallas’ season-long, seven-game win streak.

That was a rare defensive lapse this month from the Mavericks, who are No. 4 in defensive rating in February, up substantially from No. 21 for the year. That improvement coincided with the arrival of P.J. Washington in a trade deadline deal with the Charlotte Hornets — Dallas is 7–2 in February and 4–1 with Washington.

The Mavs are one of the league’s best three-point shooting teams by makes per game (15.1) and percentage (37.5). Conversely, the Cavs defend the arc at a high level, limiting makes (12.1) and holding opponents below the league average percentage (36).

Top to bottom, Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the NBA, evidenced by its No. 2 defensive rating. That side of the ball has been the engine of this turnaround in January and into February, though Mitchell’s scoring (28.1 points per game, No. 4 in the league) hasn’t hurt.

Without Mitchell (illness), the Cavaliers dropped both legs of a back-to-back to the Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers last week but the All-Star guard returned to score 16 in Sunday’s 114–105 win over the Washington Wizards. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley each cracked 20 points in that game while Mitchell and Garland were both quiet on offense.

The under has hit more often than the over for both Dallas (29–27–1) and Cleveland (31–24–1) this season and 230 has been a particularly tough total for Cavaliers games as the under is 11–7–1 in games with a total at least that high. The 232.5-point total is identical to the over/under from the first meeting, which fell well short. With the Mavericks playing better defense over the last month and Cleveland’s sluggish pace of play, this game is shaping up to be a slog in Cleveland.

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