College Basketball Best Bets: UConn vs. Marquette

The Golden Eagles look for revenge at home against the Huskies in a matchup of top 10 teams.

Two and a half weeks after the UConn Huskies blew out the Marquette Golden Eagles 81–53 in Hartford in a top-five matchup, the reigning national champions are going for the season sweep in a top-10 showdown Wednesday night in Milwaukee.

No. 8 Marquette (22–7, 13–5 Big East) will be without star guard Tyler Kolek (oblique), who has been ruled out for the remainder of the regular season, and forward Oso Ighodaro (illness) is questionable. Accordingly, the Golden Eagles have been installed as home underdogs for the first time all year against No. 2 UConn (26–3, 16–2 Big East).

The Huskies are at full strength coming off back-to-back blowout wins at home, most recently a 91–61 win against Seton Hall on Sunday. After losing its conference opener to the Pirates, UConn proceeded to win 16 of its next 17 games to clinch the Big East title with two games remaining.

Marquette lost 89–75 on the road to then-No. 12 Creighton on Saturday in its first game without Kolek, the reigning Big East Player of the Year. The Golden Eagles are 14–1 on their home floor this season and they’ve won six straight at FiServ Forum, all by double digits.

No. 2 UConn Huskies vs. No. 8 Marquette Golden Eagles

Spread: UConn -5.5 (-110) | Marquette +5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: UCONN (-250) | MARQ (+180)
Total: 151.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Wednesday, March. 6 | 8:30 p.m. ET | FS1

UConn senior guard Cam spencer  :: David Butler II/USA TODAY Sports

Best Bet: Under 151.5 (-110)

The Huskies are one of the most efficient offenses in the country, averaging 81.6 points per game on 49.7% shooting. Tristen Newton leads the team in points (15.3), rebounds (7.1) and assists (6.0) and four of his teammates also average 10-plus points per game, including fellow senior guard Cam Spencer (14.8), forward Alex Caraban (13.9) and big man Donovan Clingan (12.6).

UConn shoots a respectable 36% from beyond the arc as a team, but Spencer (45%) is one of the best shooters in the country and he hit two of the team’s 11 threes in the last meeting with Marquette. Clingan led the Huskies in scoring and on the glass in that game with a 17-point, 10-rebound double-double as the Huskies dominated the rebounding battle 45–27. At +8.8, Dan Hurley’s team boasts the eighth-best rebounding differential in DI.

Kolek had one of his worst games of the season against UConn, finishing with just seven points on 2–11 shooting. The nation’s assists leader (7.6) also tallied a season-low three dimes in that lopsided loss. Without Kolek’s playmaking, the Golden Eagles will lean on Cam Jones, who’s led the team in scoring in five straight games including back-to-back 34-point performances in February.

At 79.4 points per game, Marquette isn’t far behind the Huskies on offense, but the disparity between the two teams is best displayed on defense. UConn allows just 64 points per game, the 15th-fewest, compared with the Golden Eagles’ 69.4, which ranks just inside the top 100. The Huskies’ scoring differential (+17) is also the second-best mark nationally.

The way the last game unfolded and with Kolek out and Ighodaro potentially sidelined as well, the under seems like the optimal play here. UConn and Marquette combined for just 134 points in February, which fell well shy of the 147.5-point over/under.

This time around, the total is set even higher with the best playmaker in the country out. Overs hit more often than not for the Huskies (15–13–1) while Golden Eagles games typically go under (12–17). This is also an abnormally high total for a UConn game and the under is 2–1–1 when the over/under is set at 150 or higher this season. Don’t hold your breath for a shootout.

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