NCAA Men’s Basketball ACC Tournament Betting Preview: Duke Favored Over Top-Seeded UNC

The Blue Devils and Tar Heels are clear favorites to win the conference tournament this week in Washington, D.C.

The class of the ACC — the North Carolina Tar Heels and Duke Blue Devils — are as strong as ever this season, but the rest of the conference is well behind the two blue bloods. Ahead of the start of the ACC Tournament, which tips off Tuesday afternoon in Washington, D.C., only four of the league’s 15 members are projected to earn a spot in the field of 68.

Other than UNC and Duke, the Virginia Cavaliers and Clemson Tigers appear to be in line for trips to the Big Dance while the Pittsburgh Panthers and Wake Forest Demon Deacons are on the bubble on the outside looking in at the moment.

One year removed from a share of the regular-season ACC title and a run to the Final Four, the Miami Hurricanes enter the conference tournament with a losing record and long odds to make any noise this week at Capital One Arena. And even after the Tar Heels defeated the Blue Devils for the second time this season over the weekend, it’s Duke that enters the conference tournament as the betting favorite.

Take a look at the bracket below as well as a breakdown of the top contenders and profiles for all 15 competitors.

𝐁𝐑𝐀𝐂𝐊𝐄𝐓 𝐈𝐒 𝐒𝐄𝐓 🏆

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(Rankings updated through March 11, odds via FanDuel.)

No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (25–6, 17–3 ACC)

Against the Spread Record: 18–13
KenPom Ranking: 8
NET Rating: 7
Odds to win ACC: +190

Fresh off their first regular-season conference title since 2017, the Tar Heels head to the nation’s capital this week in search of their first ACC Tournament championship since 2016. An 84–79 win Saturday against Duke secured sole possession of first place for UNC and a season sweep of its in-state rival. Led by seniors RJ Davis and Armando Bacot, the Tar Heels have won six straight prior to the start of postseason play. They will play the winner of Virginia Tech and Florida State in the quarterfinals — North Carolina beat the Hokies a few weeks ago and swept the Seminoles.

Duke guard Caleb Foster dribbles up court against North Carolina :: Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports

No. 2 Duke Blue Devils (24–7, 15–5 ACC)

Against the Spread Record: 18–12–1
KenPom Ranking: 7
NET Rating: 10
Odds to win ACC: +180

The Blue Devils may have dropped the regular-season finale to the Tar Heels at home but they enter the ACC Tournament as the reigning champs and slim favorites over UNC to defend their title. Star center Kyle Filipowski took home tournament MVP honors a year ago and he’s coming off a 23-point outing against the Tar Heels. Duke will draw one of Syracuse, NC State or Louisville come the quarterfinals — the Blue Devils beat the Orange and Wolfpack and swept the Cardinals.

No. 3 Virginia Cavaliers (22–9, 13–7 ACC)

Against the Spread Record: 16–14–1
KenPom Ranking: 66
NET Rating: 51
Odds to win ACC: +1300

The Cavaliers came away with a 72–57 win over Georgia Tech on Saturday after dropping four out of their last six games. UVA’s skid has the team on the bubble heading into the tournament, where a quarterfinals game against Clemson, Boston College or Miami awaits. The Cavaliers went 3–0 against those potential opponents this season.

No. 4 Pittsburgh Panthers (21–10, 12–8 ACC)

Against the Spread Record: 19–9–3
KenPom Ranking: 46
NET Rating: 44
Odds to win ACC: +1600

The Panthers picked up their third consecutive win on Saturday over NC State to keep up the momentum and hold onto the double bye. Pittsburgh’s position in the quarterfinals guarantees a matchup with Wake Forest, Notre Dame or Georgia Tech. The Panthers, who have never won the ACC Tournament, beat the Irish and Yellow Jackets earlier in the year and split with the Demon Deacons. That 91–58 road loss to Wake Forest was a season-worst performance for Pitt.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons guard Kevin Miller (0) drives the ball against Duke Blue Devils guard Jared McCain (0) during the first half at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, on Feb. 24, 2024 :: Cory Knowlton/USA TODAY Sports

No. 5 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (19–12, 11–9 ACC)

Against the Spread Record: 16–14–1
KenPom Ranking: 26
NET Rating: 38
Odds to win ACC: +750

The Demon Deacons put a halt to a three-game losing streak with an 81–76 win Saturday against Clemson. Wake Forest’s season-long skid included losses to Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech following a win over a top-10 Duke team in late February. The Demon Deacons will face the winner of the Fighting Irish and Yellow Jackets in the second round — they lost to Notre Dame 70–65 in their lone meeting and split with Georgia Tech, winning 80–51 on the road and falling 70–69 at home.

No. 6 Clemson Tigers (21–10 , 11–9 ACC)

Against the Spread Record: 17–13–1
KenPom Ranking: 24
NET Rating: 26
Odds to win ACC: +950

The Tigers dropped two of their final three regular season games on the road including the finale against Wake Forest. Still, after a 4–6 start in league play, Clemson won six of its next nine games — including a marquee upset over UNC — to secure a favorable second round matchup. The Tigers will draw the winner of Boston College and Miami, two teams they beat by double digits in their lone meetings.

No. 7 Syracuse Orange (20–11 , 11–9 ACC)

Against the Spread Record: 13–18
KenPom Ranking: 79
NET Rating: 79
Odds to win ACC: +5000

No. 8 Virginia Tech Hokies (18–13, 10–10 ACC)

Against the Spread Record: 14–17
KenPom Ranking: 53
NET Rating: 56
Odds to win ACC: +3200

No. 9 Florida State Seminoles (16–15, 10–10 ACC)

Against the Spread Record: 15–15–1
KenPom Ranking: 82
NET Rating: 95
Odds to win ACC: +6000

No. 10 NC State Wolfpack (17–14, 9–11 ACC)

Against the Spread Record: 13–17–1
KenPom Ranking: 76
NET Rating: 80
Odds to win ACC: +5000

No. 11 Boston College Eagles (17–14, 8–12 ACC)

Against the Spread Record: 13–18
KenPom Ranking: 95
NET Rating: 96
Odds to win ACC: +19000

No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12–19, 7–13 ACC)

Against the Spread Record: 17–14
KenPom Ranking: 124
NET Rating: 126
Odds to win ACC: +25000

No. 13 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (14–17, 7–13 ACC)

Against the Spread Record: 15–16
KenPom Ranking: 126
NET Rating: 122
Odds to win ACC: +25000

No. 14 Miami Hurricanes (15–16, 6–14 ACC)

Against the Spread Record: 14–15–2
KenPom Ranking: 96
NET Rating: 99
Odds to win ACC: +9000

No. 15 Louisville Cardinals (8–23, 3–17 ACC)

Against the Spread Record: 12–18–1
KenPom Ranking: 197
NET Rating: 214
Odds to win ACC: +25000

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