NCAA Men’s Basketball Big 12 Tournament Betting Preview: Houston Heavily Favored to Cut Down the Nets

In their first season in the Big 12, the Cougars won the regular season title and they are expected to win the conference tournament as well.

The Kansas Jayhawks, Iowa State Cyclones and Texas Longhorns have combined to win the last 10 Big 12 tournaments, but the Houston Cougars are intent on interrupting that streak as the favorites this week in Kansas City.

Houston dominated the conference in its first year in the Big 12, which is projected to send an NCAA-best nine of its 14 members to the Big Dance. That much top-end talent concentrated at T-Mobile Arena will make the Big 12 bracket a gauntlet. Even so, the Cougars are massive favorites to come out on top. Iowa State and the Baylor Bears are their closest competitors and the BYU Cougars, who are also in their first year in the conference, could challenge Houston as well.

Kansas is a perennial threat, but Bill Self’s Jayhawks just had their worst regular-season finish in over 20 years. The Texas Longhorns, reigning Big 12 tournament champions, have long odds to defend their title in their final season in the conference.

Below you’ll find the bracket, key information on the top six teams in the conference and profiles for each program.

(Rankings updated through March 11, odds via FanDuel.)

No. 1 Houston Cougars (28–3, 15–3 Big 12)

Against the Spread Record: 14–15–2
KenPom Ranking: 1
NET Rating: 1
Odds to win Big 12: -105

The Cougars finished first in the Big 12 in their inaugural season in the conference and they’re the odds-on favorite to add a tournament championship. Houston has won nine in a row and 14 of its last 15, punctuated by a 76–46 statement win Saturday against Kansas, the lone team it lost to during that stretch. In Jamal Shead and L.J. Cryer, the Cougars have a veteran backcourt and tout an elite defense heading into the tournament. Houston will face the winner of TCU and Oklahoma in the quarterfinals, which is actually a difficult draw for the favorites as they lost to the Horned Frogs 68–67 in January and eked out an 87–85 win over the Sooners two weeks ago.

Iowa State Cyclones forward Hason Ward dunks the ball around Kansas State Wildcats forward Arthur Kaluma during a Big 12 game on Jan. 24, 2024, in Ames, Iowa :: Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune/USA TODAY Network

No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones (24–7, 13–5 Big 12)

Against the Spread Record: 20–10–1
KenPom Ranking: 12
NET Rating: 9
Odds to win Big 12: +490

The Cyclones fell to Kansas State 65–58 on Saturday, which put an end to their four-game winning streak. Iowa State does not stack up well offensively against some of the other top teams in the country, but only Houston has a better defense. The Cyclones are one of three teams that took down the Cougars this year and they held them to a season-low 53 points in that meeting. The winner between Texas and Kansas State will advance to the quarterfinals to play Iowa State — the Cyclones defeated the Longhorns 70–65 on the road in early February and beat the Wildcats 78–67 in January to split the season series.

No. 3 Baylor Bears (22–9, 11–7 Big 12)

Against the Spread Record: 18–10–2
KenPom Ranking: 14
NET Rating: 14
Odds to win Big 12: +600

The Bears had won three in a row before Saturday’s 78–68 loss to Texas Tech as their elite offense was stymied on the road. Baylor played one of the toughest schedules in the country with 17 Quad 1 games and finished 8–4 in Big 12 play after a 3–3 start. The Bears await one of Kansas, Cincinnati and West Virginia in the quarterfinals. They beat the Bearcats 62–59, dispatched the Mountaineers 94–81 and split with the Jayhawks, winning the most recent meeting 82–74 at home less than two weeks ago. Baylor has never won the Big 12 tournament in program history.

No. 4 Texas Tech Raiders (22–9, 11–7 Big 12)

Against the Spread Record: 14–16–1
KenPom Ranking: 25
NET Rating: 30
Odds to win Big 12: +1800

February was a rough month for the Red Raiders, who lost five of eight games but scored a massive 79–50 win over Kansas to save face. So far, Texas Tech has fared much better in March, having won three in a row, including a 78–68 triumph over Baylor on Saturday. As a result, the Red Raiders earned the double bye and will play one of BYU, UCF and Oklahoma State. Texas Tech beat the Cougars 75–68 in their lone meeting, split the season series with the Knights and swept Oklahoma State, winning both meetings handily.

No. 5 BYU Cougars (22–9, 10–8 Big 12)

Against the Spread Record: 19–12
KenPom Ranking: 16
NET Rating: 12
Odds to win Big 12: +1000

The sharpshooting Cougars capped off their first campaign in the Big 12 with an 85–71 win over Oklahoma State. BYU ranks second nationally in three-pointers made per game and shot its way to a Round 1 bye. The winner between the Cowboys and Knights will draw the Cougars in the second round — BYU lost to Oklahoma State by 10 before exacting revenge on Saturday and swept the season series with UCF.

The Kansas Jayhawks are dealing with injuries to some of their top players as the Big-12 tournament is set to start :: Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports

No. 6 Kansas Jayhawks (22–9, 10–8 Big 12)

Against the Spread Record: 13–17–1
KenPom Ranking: 18
NET Rating: 18
Odds to win Big 12: +1000

The Jayhawks limp into the tournament in nearby Kansas City with the status of Hunter Dickinson (shoulder) and Kevin McCullar Jr. (knee), the team’s top two scorers, in doubt. Dickinson left Saturday’s rout against Houston early and McCullar did not appear in the second half. Beyond the star-studded injury report, Kansas has dropped three out of its last four games and is just 5–5 since the start of February. The Jayhawks look to regain their footing in the second round against the winner of West Virginia, which upset KU 95–81 at home early in Big 12 play, and Cincinnati, which lost 74–69 in Lawrence in January.

No. 7 Texas Longhorns (20–11, 9–9 Big 12)

Against the Spread Record: 12–19
KenPom Ranking: 23
NET Rating: 24
Odds to win Big 12: +2400

No. 8 TCU Horned Frogs (20–11, 9–9 Big 12)

Against the Spread Record: 18–13
KenPom Ranking: 33
NET Rating: 40
Odds to win Big 12: +3600

No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners (20–11, 8–10 Big 12)

Against the Spread Record: 15–16
KenPom Ranking: 40
NET Rating: 43
Odds to win Big 12: +6500

No. 10 Kansas State Wildcats (18–13, 8–10 Big 12)

Against the Spread Record: 16–15
KenPom Ranking: 67
NET Rating: 70
Odds to win Big 12: +10000

No. 11 Cincinnati Bearcats (18–13, 7–11 Big 12)

Against the Spread Record: 16–15
KenPom Ranking: 41
NET Rating: 41
Odds to win Big 12: +10000

No. 12 UCF Knights (16–14, 7–11 Big 12)

Against the Spread Record: 18–12
KenPom Ranking: 60
NET Rating: 61
Odds to win Big 12: +16000

No. 13 Oklahoma State Cowboys (12–19, 4–14 Big 12)

Against the Spread Record: 11–18–2
KenPom Ranking: 107
NET Rating: 120
Odds to win Big 12: +25000

No. 14 West Virginia Mountaineers (9–22, 4–14 Big 12)

Against the Spread Record: 12–19
KenPom Ranking: 142
NET Rating: 158
Odds to win Big 12: +25000

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