Don’t Be Fooled By Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye's NFL Draft Odds Movement

Brian Giuffra | Apr 19, 2024

LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels. / Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

With USC QB Caleb Williams firmly entrenched as the presumptive No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the real drama starts at No. 2 when the Washington Commanders make their selection. 

Reigning Heisman winner Jayden Daniels has long been considered the front-runner for that slot. Oddsmakers have seemingly agreed, making him as high as a -250 favorite at FanDuel to be drafted second overall, which represents a 76.7% implied probability of it happening. 

But a flurry of odds movement has occurred over the last 24 hours, with UNC QB Drake Maye’s odds falling from +185 to be drafted second overall to now -110 at FanDuel.

Daniels’ odds, meanwhile, currently sit at -120, which is a 54.5% implied probability, or 22.2% less than he was just a few days ago.

That odds movement has people wondering if oddsmakers know something we don’t. But before you rush out to bet on who will be drafted second, remember sportsbooks move odds for many reasons outside of insider information, including trying to entice you to bet on one side of a wager to hedge the bets they’ve already collected on the other. 

And let’s not forget, Will Levis was favored at -145 odds to be the No. 2 overall pick in the lead up to last year’s draft, and he didn’t get selected until the second round. 

Instead of looking at odds as an indicator of what might happen, it’s wiser to listen to the insiders. Adam Schefter said, “I think you can go get those Jayden Daniels jerseys,” on April 12, indicating Daniels will be the Commanders pick at No. 2. Bleacher Report NFL insider Jordan Schultz said he’s heard Daniels is the top choice at No. 2 the day before. 

No insider has said Maye is the expected choice at No. 2.

Another interesting piece of information that came out Thursday was Bill Belichick saying reliable draft leaks don’t usually happen until 12 hours before the draft. We’re just under a week away from draft day. Do we think the news has leaked this early? 

The Commanders just had Daniels and Maye in for visits earlier this week. Washington GM Adam Peters said yesterday the team is expected to finalize the decision on who they will draft No. 2 overall early next week. Even if he’s being coy, that timeline matches up with what Belichick said.

Betting on the NFL Draft can be fun, and in some cases lucrative. But betting based on odds movement, or assuming an outcome is more or less likely based on odds movement, isn’t wise. Odds move for a lot of reasons and, as we saw last year, they’re not always because the sportsbooks know something we don’t. 

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.