J.J. McCarthy's NFL Draft Odds are Moving Like Crazy Ahead of First Round

Brian Giuffra | Apr 22, 2024

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

As detailed last week, NFL Draft odds movement is not a predictive science, merely a confluence of factors including oddsmakers baiting bettors into one side of the wager so they can hedge potential losses on the other side. 

That doesn’t make them any less noteworthy to fans, especially when the odds movement is as volatile as Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s recently. 

Over the last week, McCarthy’s odds to be the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft have moved from +950 to +2000 to +800 currently at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels is still the outright betting favorite to be the No. 2 pick at -170 at DraftKings. UNC quarterback Drake Maye is second at +160. 

The quarterback-needy Washington Commanders hold the second pick in the draft and their GM Adam Peters said last week they don’t intend to trade it. The expectation is they will select Daniels, with Adam Schefter among the notable NFL insiders reporting that is his expectation as well. 

ESPN Commanders reporter John Keim reported the Commanders have McCarthy ahead of Maye on their draft board, giving more credence to the odds movement. However, Keim also reported all signs point to Daniels as the pick. 

The implied probability of a +800 bet hitting is 11.1% whereas -170 odds represent a 63% chance of winning. Outside of the odds movement, there’s no concrete evidence the Commanders are more likely to pick McCarthy at No. 2 today than yesterday. 

McCarthy's odds to be the No. 4 overall pick at DraftKings are much shorter at +180. Even though McCarthy is not the favorite to be the No. 4 pick (Marvin Harrison Jr is at -225), it is worth noting his odds get longer after that, moving from +250 to go No. 5 to +500 at No. 6 to +1200 at No. 7.

That's intriguing as it suggests McCarthy won't last past the fourth pick.

Yet none of this is exact. None of it is guaranteed. It's just the probability an outcome may occur. In this case, oddsmakers are saying there's a better chance McCarthy goes No. 2 today than yesterday, but it's still a long shot.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.