Drake Maye's NFL Draft Odds Movement Implies He Will Be No. 3 Pick

Brian Giuffra | Apr 24, 2024

Drake Maye. / Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve seen a lot of odds movement for the NFL Draft recently, with Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy’s odds to be the No. 2 overall pick fluctuating wildly over a 48-hour period earlier this week.

Drake Maye’s odds to be the No. 2 pick fluctuated as well during that time, moving from +185 to -110 and then back to +160 at FanDuel. Now his odds to be the No. 3 overall pick are moving as well.

Maye opened at +200 odds to be the No. 3 pick at BetMGM and was -135 as recently as a week ago. Now he’s the clear favorite to go No. 3 with his odds currently standing at -300 on BetMGM. 

That -300 number represents an implied probability of a 75% chance of it happening. 

Maye started the pre-draft process as the outright favorite to be the second overall pick. At 6-4, 230 pounds with a cannon arm and good athleticism, he’s the prototypical quarterback NFL franchises fawn over.

Then LSU quarterback and reigning Heisman winner Jayden Daniels stole the spotlight during pre-draft workouts. He had a solid pro day performance at LSU with a few eye-popping throws and displayed more athleticism than Maye throughout last season, showcasing the kind of dual-threat ability NFL teams covet. 

Maye, meanwhile, struggled at his pro day, missing several throws toward the sideline, an issue that reared its head during UNC games this past season too. His footwork is inconsistent and his throws are too at times.

Reports emerged from Adam Schefter and others soon after the pre-draft workouts stating Daniels was expected to be the No. 2 pick by the Washington Commanders. The odds for that picked followed suit with Daniels the outright favorite to go second.

Now it appears Maye won’t make it past the third pick. There are reports the Giants and Vikings are both interested in trading up for him, but the Patriots, who hold the No. 3 pick, need a quarterback too. Regardless of who is picking there, the expecation is the player selected will be a quarterback.

Anything can happen on draft night, and as I’ve mentioned before, odds movement isn’t indicative of insider information or a guarantee of an outcome. Right now oddsmakers believe the first three picks of the NFL Draft will be Caleb Williams, Daniels and Maye. Until Rodger Goodell reads those names, we still don’t actually know. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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