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CJ Cup Byron Nelson Odds and Betting Picks: Will a Longshot Win This Week?
This week’s PGA Tour event is sure to provide plenty of fireworks as the low-scoring CJ Cup Byron Nelson tournament gets underway Thursday at the TPC Craig Ranch, arguably the easiest course on Tour each year.
The field is light on superstars—Jordan Spieth is the biggest name and has the lowest odds to win—but rife with opportunity to win some money as everyone has +1400 odds or higher.
Jason Day won this tournament last year with a final score of 23 under and K.H. Lee won it the previous year at 26 under. The fairways on this course are wide, there can be favorable wind for the players, and most of the time this tournament turns into a bit of a pitch and putt where approach shots and putting become the key to winning.
Based on that, below are a few picks to consider betting on. All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson Odds
Jordan Spieth +1400
Si Woo Kim +1600
Jason Day +2000
Adam Scott +2000
Alex Noren +2200
Byeong Hun An +2500
Stephan Jaeger +2500
Sungjae Im +2500
Min Woo Lee +2500
Tom Kim +2800
Tom Hoge +2800
CJ Cup Byron Nelson Betting Picks
Byron Nelson Top 10 Finish Pick – Jordan Spieth +190
It’s been an inauspicious year for Spieth, who has as many missed cuts as Top 10 finishes (3). He’s been erratic with his approach shots (100th on Tour in Shots Gained: Approach), which has resulted in him bogeying over 15% of his holes.
The good news is the putting woes that have cost him in the past seem to be a thing of the past (14th in SG: Putting), his driving has been consistent this season (39th SG: Off-the-Tee) and he’s eighth on Tour in birdie percentage (26.3%). He also birdies par 5s 56.76% of the time.
Those metrics point to high performance at this tournament.
Spieth finished second at this tournament in 2022 and T9 in 2021. He did not play last year.
At plus odds against a weaker field on a course he’s had success at previously, this feels like a good buy-low spot on Spieth to finish in the Top 10.
Byron Nelson Player to Fade: Jason Day +1800
Like Spieth, Day has been inconsistent this year, finishing in the Top 10 in three tournaments, but missing two cuts and finishing outside the Top 30 in three others, not including his T30 at the Masters.
The stats unearth other troubling signs, most notably being 152nd on Tour in SG: Approach, 133rd in Green in Regulation % (63.62), and 180th in proximity to hole (42 feet, 11 inches).
That’s not going to get it done on a birdie bonanza course like this.
Byron Nelson Outright Winner Picks: Tom Hoge +2800 & Thomas Detry +4000
Hoge and Detry fill the primary buckets that tend to lead to a great performance at this tournament -- good putters and birdie machines.
Hoge is second on Tour in SG: Approach, sixth in scoring average, ninth in total birdie average (4.58 per round), 13th in Par 5 scoring and 30th in SG: Putting.
While he’s 136th in SG: Off-The-Tee and isn’t a long hitter, that won’t matter as much at a course with some of the widest fairways on Tour. Plus, he’s 11th on Tour on approaches from outside 200 yards and accurate with most of his long irons overall.
He did just miss the cut at the Zurich, but that’s a team event. Outside of that, he’s had three Top 20s in his last four events and two Top 10s at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational this year. He also shot 21 under at the American Express, proving he can go low.
Detry is just behind Hoge in birdie average per round (4.56) and an even better putter, ranking 18th in SG: Putting. Putting is always key at this event and could be the point of differentiation for him.
While he has been inconsistent with his approach shot (137 SG: Approach), he’s 55th on Tour in driving distance, which could offset his struggles with the irons on this long course. He also ranks 19th in birdie-or-better percentage on Par-5s (55.74%).
Detry shot 14 under at Pebble Beach and finished T2 at the Houston Open with an 11-under score. He also just finished T8 at the Zurich, which is good momentum even though it was a team event.
Detry has the firepower to go low, and at +4000 is worth a sprinkle ahead of the tournament.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Brian Giuffra is the VP of Betting Content at Minute Media and has been with the company since 2016. He's a fan of the Knicks, Giants, wine and bourbon, usually consuming them in that order.