2025 March Madness: South Region Odds, Schedule, Bracket, Dark Horses and Best Bets

Reed Wallach | Mar 16, 2025

Mar 14, 2025; Nashville, TN, USA; Auburn Tigers forward Johni Broome (4) dribbles past Mississippi Rebels forward Malik Dia (0) during the first half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

The South Region is headlined by the No. 1 overall seed in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, Auburn, which is littered with plenty of formidable teams that will vie for the National Championship. 

The Tigers will look to make good on being the top seed in the NCAA Tournament by outclassing a talented region that features No. 2 seed Michigan State and No. 3 Iowa State as well as emerging dark horses like No. 8 seed Louisville and trendy double digit seed UC-San Diego. 

The action gets started on Thursday, and we are here to get you started!

South Region Schedule and Bracket

The entire South Region of the 2025 Men's NCAA Tournament bracket 🏀 pic.twitter.com/jXVvReJVGx

— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) March 16, 2025

Odds to Win South Region 

• Auburn: +105
• Michigan State: +470
• Iowa State: +500
• Texas A&M: +1200
• Louisville: +1800
• Ole Miss: +2000
• Marquette: +2200
• Michigan: +2300
• Creighton: +3200
• North Carolina: +4600
• UC-San Diego: +5500
• New Mexico: +7500
• Yale: +15000
• San Diego State: +15000
• St. Francis (PA): +25000
• Alabama State: +25000
• Bryant: +25000
• Lipscomb: +25000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

South Region Dark Horse

Louisville

The Cardinals have enjoyed a quick resurgence under first year head coach Pat Kelsey. 

The team’s offensive system is elite with Wisconsin transfer Chucky Hepburn at the helm of the spaced out offense. 

The Cards take threes at a top 20 rate and rank inside the top 75 in effective field goal percentage while providing sound defense that is top 100 in all four of KenPom’s four factors: effective field goal percentage allowed, turnover rate, defensive rebounding rate and opponent free throw rate allowed. 

The team is likely underseed as a No. 8, ranked 23rd in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric with top five Division 1 experience. 

A tricky matchup against Creighton is in the first round, but the team will be playing at home in Louisville before the team faces No. 1 seed Auburn at home in the Round of 32. While an underdog, Louisville has the capability of keeping up with the Tigers front line and also potentially out-shooting the Tigers from th perimeter. 

For a No. 8 seed against the No. 1 overall seed in the Round of 32, this is as good of a matchup and setting for the Cards to compete and potentially bust up brackets. 

South Region First Round Odds

No. 1 Auburn () vs. No. 16 Alabama State/St. Francis

No. 8 Louisville (-2.5) vs. No. 9 Creighton (145.5)

No. 5 Michigan (-3.5) vs. No. 12 UC-San Diego (141.5)

No. 4 Texas A&M (-7.5) vs. No. 13 Yale (141.5)

No. 6 Ole Miss () vs. No. 11 San Diego State/North Carolina

No. 7 Marquette (-3.5) vs. No. 10 New Mexico (152.5)

No. 3 Iowa State (-13.5) vs. No. 14 Lipscomb (142.5)

No. 2 Michigan State (-18.5) vs. No. 15 Bryant (150.5)

South Region Best First Round Bet

UC-San Diego (+3.5) vs. Michigan 

The Wolverines can give the Tritons some trouble with its double big lineup of Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, but this is a nightmare matchup for the Wolverines on the heels of a Big Ten Tournament title win and now traveling out west to altitude to face a west coast threat. 

The Tritons have been one of the best stories in college basketball, making the NCAA Tournament in its fourth season at the level, but the team is incredibly good as well.

The team is owners of the longest winning streak in the country with 15 straight victories and are paced by an elite ball pressure unit that is second in the nation in turnover percentage. 

This is incredibly impactful as the Wolverines are 328th in turnover percentage and uber reliant on their ability to get to the rim to offset some of its woes protecting the ball. 

I expect UC-San Diego to play zone and force Michigan to operate in the half court, while the Tritons apply ample ball pressure and attack the team’s drop coverage with shots from the perimeter – the team is eighth in 3-point rate while shooting over 36% from beyond the arc. 

It’s a sharp market with the Tritons catching only a few points, but this matchup sets up well for the team to go toe-to-toe with the Wolverines and pull the mild upset. 

South Region Prediction and Pick

This region is ripe for chaos. I mentioned above that I believe Auburn can be in serious trouble against Louisville if that second round matchup comes to fruition in what is essentially a road atmosphere in the round of 32. 

Further, Michigan State has been a team I have been itching to fade in the postseason, but the path is fairly straightforward for Sparty, so I may need to be tactful with how to fade the team. 

Iowa State has been up-and-down this season with injuries playing a big role during Big 12 play, but the team will be without star guard Keshon Gilbert as the team gears up for the NCAA Tournament. 

T.J. Otzelberger says that Keshon Gilbert will not be avaliable for the Cyclones moving forward. pic.twitter.com/v3risUv7rs

— CycloneFanatic.com (@cyclonefanatic) March 16, 2025

Even down the board, there are combustible rosters with Texas A&M ripe for a tough matchup against Yale and one of the worst shooting teams in the country as well as Michigan's noted turnover issues from above. 

Marquette closed the season losing seven of its last 12 games, so I’m not interested in trusting them either in addition to an Ole Miss team that lacks the firepower to hang over six games. 

All of that is to say this is a flawed region that is ripe to be blown up. 

The easy answer is Auburn, who despite losing three of its last four games is the No. 1 overall seed and has a Wooden Award candidate in Johni Broome as well as firepower up and down the roster. 

The team will have a tough road, but this is a group that can win the shot volume battle with its front court as well as overwhelm foes with its superior shot making, ranking 26th in effective field goal percentage with plenty of high end wins. 

Losing in the semifinals of the SEC Tournament may have done some good for the roster to get some rest ahead of the "Big Dance," and given the path, it’ll surely need it. While long shots may loom, Auburn is still one of the most likely title winners and should be seen as the rightful favorite to win the region.

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