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A Six-Figure Bet on the Dolphins Alternate Spread vs Bills Just Dropped
The Dolphins and Bills both authored comeback wins in Week 1, setting up a critical division showdown between the presumptive top teams in the AFC East in Week 2 on Thursday Night Football.
The Dolphins are currently -2.5-point favorites over the Bills in most books. The Dolphins are -135 on the moneyline at Caesars Sportsbook and the Bills are +115. The OVER/UNDER is set at 49.0 points.
Despite losing both games to the Bills last season, including a Week 18 winner-take-all game that cost the Dolphins the division title, one bettor believes Miami will win the game and cover a -1.5-point spread. They're so confident, that they just dropped six figures on the bet.
One Michigan bettor at @CaesarsSports wagered $110,000 on the Dolphins -1.5 (vs. Bills) on #TNF
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) September 11, 2024
The important thing to note from the tweet from Ben Fawkes is the bettor wagered $110,000 with an alternate spread of -1.5. On the Caesar Sportsbook app, if you make the spread Dolphins -1.5, the odds are -129 versus the standard odds of -110 for the -2.5-point spread.
We don't know if this bettor took that line or got a special price from Caesars because the bet was so large. If they did get odds of -129, the potential winnings are $85,272.
Sports Illustrated betting insider Jen Piacenti is on the other side of this bet, taking the Bills moneyline in an upset pick.
The primary concern I have if I'm this bettor is the health of Miami's running backs. Raheem Mostert, who scored 18 TDs with the Dolphins last year, has already been ruled out. Primary back De'Von Achane is a game-time decision as he deals with an ankle injury. Even if Achane does play, he could be limited.
Jeff Wilson Jr. and Jaylen Wright will be the primary backs if Achane can't play.
The Dolphins trailed the Jaguars for most of their season opener and needed a 52-yard field goal as time expired to get the win. Achane was critical in the comeback, making seven catches for 75 yards and adding 25 rushing yards and a touchdown on 10 carries.
The Bills trailed the Cardinals by 14 early in their game before QB Josh Allen took over, throwing for two TDs and rushing for two more. Their defense looked shaky at several points of the game.
This game should be tight. If that's the case, this six-figure bettor will be sweating it to the end.
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Brian Giuffra is the VP of Betting Content at Minute Media and has been with the company since 2016. He's a fan of the Knicks, Giants, wine and bourbon, usually consuming them in that order.