AAC College Football Preview: Odds, Prediction to Win and Best Win Total Bets for 2024 Season

Reed Wallach | Jul 23, 2024

Oct 13, 2023; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Tulane Green Wave running back Makhi Hughes (21) runs with the ball during the first half against the Memphis Tigers at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports / Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

The American Conference will have a new champion in 2024 as reigning champion SMU heads to the ACC this season.

Can Tulane, who won the title in 2022 return to the top of the conference, or will it be an upstart team like South Florida or East Carolina?

There's plenty of intrigue in the AAC this season, here's two of my favorite win totals, as well as conference title odds that I'm eyeing ahead of the season.

For more on the AAC check out the win totals for each team here as well as each team’s conference championship odds. 

AAC Conference Preview and Best Bets

Tulsa Over 4.5 Wins (-110, BET365)

Last year was a tough start for the Kevin Wilson era in Tulsa, due in part to injuries along the roster. 

The Golden Hurricanes, despite playing a handful of different quarterbacks throughout the season, still ranked inside the top 25 in explosive pass offense, but couldn’t get enough stops to finish the season strong enough. 

The Golden Hurricanes started 3-3 before dropping six straight games in the middle of the season, four of them by a touchdown or fewer. 

This season, I think Wilson can get this team on track. The offense returns capable quarterbacks, but the hope is that Utah State transfer Cooper Legas can take over QB1 duties, Cardell Williams proved capable as a dual threat arm or Kirk Francis who saw time during the season. 

The offense returns eight starters, including wide receiver Kamdyn Benjamin, and I’m bullish on the upside of it with better health. However, the defense, which ranked 125th in EPA/Play still needs work and only returns four starters. 

All in all, I’m willing to wager this team can get over a modest win total of 4.5 after going 4-8 last season and a few bounces away from doing even better, especially given the schedule. 

There are plenty of toss-up games on the schedule, I project seven games on the schedule to be within a touchdown point spread as well as one very likely win against FCS foe Northwestern State. I also am willing to bet on a year two bump from a coaching staff that came together late in the process last offseason and now has a year of data to begin building up. 

I believe the worst is behind the Golden Hurricanes. 

South Florida UNDER 7.5 Wins (-138, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The darling of many G5 previews, South Florida enters the season with a ton of hype under former Tennessee offensive coordinator Alex Golesh. 

The Bulls went 7-6 in his first season behind the fastest-paced offense in the country. The team had a run-first offense around 6’3” quarterback Byroum Brown and speedy running back Nay’Quan Wright who scored over 30 points per game. 

Now, with 10 starters back on offense and another eight back on the defensive side of the ball, the team is expected to be even better. 

I’m going to cool on the hype train just a bit ahead of this season. While the team has an exciting offense, the defense was among the worst in the country last season, mainly because the unit wasn’t equipped to be on the field that much because the offense was playing so fast. 

While there is continuity, and more high pedigree transfers coming in to build this roster up, the Bulls still ranked 88th in EPA/Play and allowed more than six yards per play, 119th in the country. The rush defense was solid, but the secondary couldn’t stop the pass (113th in EPA/Pass). 

Further, how will Brown’s development go? He was an elite rusher but was shaky as a passer. The Bulls offense ranked 77th in EPA/Pass and the offensive line allowed 40 sacks. While this was a seismic change in scheme, and another offseason can help, this is expecting a big jump in quality. 

South Florida went 7-6 last season while playing two one-score games – and winning both. The group either blew out teams or got blown out, and that is making me have caution as I consider wagering on this team to contend for the AAC this season. There are more outcomes tied to this team because of its unique play style, and with a win total that requires eight wins to go over, I’m willing to go under. 

The Bulls schedule does Golesh and co. no favors. The team plays at Alabama and Miami in two of the first four weeks before a road trip to Tulane, and both USF and Memphis are off a bye before a game in South Florida in a projected coin flip.

While the schedule eases up down the stretch, I’m willing to bank on another upset or two coming down the stretch with the team’s depth likely being tested due to play style. Keep an eye on the season finale at Rice or at Charlotte with the 49ers coming off of a bye. 

This is a bit too much of an expectation jump for the Bulls, I’m willing to play back against it. 

AAC Championship Dark Horse: East Carolina (+1800, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The bottom fell out for Mike Houston’s Pirates last season as the team went 2-10 after 15 wins combined in the prior two seasons. 

However, I’m banking on a quick jump back into the top half of the American in 2024 with what’s in place. 

The big issue that led to the 2-10 season for ECU was its poor offense. The Pirates were bottom 10 in most notable offensive categories, including yards per play, EPA/Play, and success rate, but the defense turned out to be an elite unit for AAC standards. 

Houston’s group ranked 39th in yards per play, 44th in EPA/Play and completely shut down opposing rushing attacks with a stout defensive line that ranked sixth in line yards. 

The D returns seven starters, including pass rushes D’Anta Johnson and Chad Stephens, who return after All-AAC team honors last season. 

I’m confident the defense can continue to be successful, but I’m very high on the upside of this offense with offensive coordinator John David Baker joining from Ole Miss. 

The Rebels’ former co-offensive coordinator joined the staff last season and can hopefully reignite the unit that landed two Power Four transfers in Jake Garcia (Missouri, Miami) and Katin Houser (Michigan State). 

With better quarterback play, a young offense that landed a handful of P4 transfers at wide receiver, can be dangerous quickly through the air. 

The Pirates have an easy schedule relative to their AAC peers as well. The team plays one of the top four teams in terms of conference odds and it comes in Greenville against a new-look UTSA team. 

If the offense clicks, ECU can be in the mix for the AAC crown yet again after a down year in 2023. 

AAC Championship Best Bet: Tulane (+430, FD)

While Memphis is the best team on paper entering the season and the rightful favorite, I’m going to side with the 2022 champs Tulane, who has some turnover along the roster but is being underrated with the talent on hand. 

The Green Wave are replacing head coach Willie Fritz but landed Troy head coach Jon Sumrall, who joins after leading the Trojans to back-to-back Sun Belt Champions. He brings with him a handful of transfers, including stud cornerback Caleb Ransaw (40 tackles, 24 stops) and left tackle Derrick Graham from Troy, as well as landing a handful of high-end pass-catching threats in the transfer portal, including Mario Williams (USC, Oklahoma) and Shazz Preston. 

This team is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and a strong coaching staff, but its biggest question comes at quarterback. Former four-star recruit Ty Thompson could secure a spot on the field with Oregon, and he’s competing with Kai Horton for the QB1 role with Horton showing ability last season in place of Michael Pratt. 

While this is a concern, I believe both quarterbacks are capable for this level, and the team has 1,300-yard rusher Makhi Hughes in the backfield alongside either option. 

The team has a tricky nonconference start, but I also believe this can help nail down the quarterback spot ahead of conference play and the team will get better as the season goes on. 

To me, the AAC runs through New Orleans as South Florida, Rice (Green Wave have a bye prior), and Memphis (last week of the season with a bye ahead of time) all travel to Tulane. 

I’m willing to trust the talent on hand and instantly the best coach in the conference upon being hired to navigate this interesting situation and make it back to the AAC title. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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