Aaron Rodgers Retirement Odds Suggest He’s Hanging It Up 

Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (left) could retire this offseason.
Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (left) could retire this offseason. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Speculation abounds about Aaron Rodgers’s future in the NFL after his second season with the Jets ended just as disappointingly as his first. Now 41 and coming off a dysfunctional season in New York where he failed to lead it to the playoffs and put up mediocre stats, at least by his high standards, Rodgers himself speculated this may be the end. 

It seems oddsmakers agree. 

FanDuel Sportsbook in Canada is offering odds on whether the four-time MVP will retire by the time NFL free agency begins, listed on the sportsbook as “by March 12th, 2025,” and the odds are slightly in favor of Rodgers hanging up his cleats by that point. 

Aaron Rodgers Retirement Odds 

  • Yes -124
  • No - 102 

The implied probability of a -124 bet is 55.4%, meaning sportsbooks believe he’s more likely to retire by then. A -102 bet has an implied probability of 50.5%. Both aren't great odds, which I'll explain more about below.

Rodgers said before the season ended that he would decide before free agency whether he will retire or not, but was vague in which way he was leaning. He said he has "a lot of gratitude for the last 20 years." He also said, “I don’t know [if I'm retiring]” and “I’m looking forward to those conversations with Woody [and the Jets front office].” 

With the Jets firing the GM and coach who brought Rodgers in during the regular season and likely embarking on a full rebuild this offseason, which would presumably include bringing in a new, younger QB, it’s hard to imagine Rodgers staying with the Jets.

The Raiders, Steelers, Browns, Colts, Titans, Giants and Saints could all be in the market for a starting QB this offseason, but with all the baggage Rodgers brings and the likelihood those teams will draft a quarterback, there aren’t many landing spots that make sense for Rodgers. 

The 20-year veteran didn’t have a terrible season for the Jets, completing 63% of his passes for 3,897 yards, 28 TDs, and 11 INTs, but drama surrounded the organization since they traded for him from Green Bay in 2023. His weekly appearances on “The Pat McAfee Show” produced a litany of controversial soundbites and the trades and offseason acquisitions the Jets made (mostly for former Packers players) seemed done to acquiesce Rodgers.    

That none of them panned out as planned only made things worse. 

The Jets went 5-12 this year and were widely viewed as the laughing stock of the NFL, even as their co-tenant Giants tried to steal that title away. The whole trade has seemingly set the Jets back years while their division rivals (Bills, Patriots, Dolphins) have continued to improve. 

Rodgers is a polarizing personality and it’s hard to envision a team taking a swing on him unless they believe he has one more legendary run in him. But, after tearing his Achilles in 2023 in his fourth snap for the Jets and looking like a shell of the former superstar he was this season, that’s a mighty big risk. 

I’m not betting on this market as Rodgers could wait to see if a team values him in free agency or hold off on retiring in hopes he can sign with a team that’s in win-now mode and has a QB get injured. He could also pull a Brett Favre and retire and then unretire, though in that case if he retires before free agency the bet would be paid out.

This was just an interesting market from my perspective and suggests oddsmakers believe the chances are he will retire in the coming months, though, like Jets spreads this year, I wouldn't bet on it.


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.


Published
Brian Giuffra
BRIAN GIUFFRA

Brian Giuffra is the VP of Betting Content at Minute Media and has been with the company since 2016. He's a fan of the Knicks, Giants, wine and bourbon, usually consuming them in that order.