ACC College Football Preview: Odds, Prediction to Win and Best Win Total Bets for 2024 Season

Reed Wallach | Jul 16, 2024

Dec 29, 2023; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) looks to pass the ball against the Kentucky Wildcats in the second quarter during the Gator Bowl at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports / Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

College football season is fast approaching, and it's time for us to prepare for the season by taking stock of future bets for the year. 

In a new-look ACC this season that features three incoming teams, SMU, Cal, and Stanford, it's the stalwarts of the conference that remain contenders for the title and a bid to the first expanded College Football Playoffs in Florida State and Clemson. 

However, there are formidable teams down the line, evident in the odds, as four other teams have odds +1000 or shorter entering the season in Miami (Florida), North Carolina State, Louisville, and Virginia Tech. 

As part of our season preview series, I’ll share a win total over and under in the ACC as well as a dark horse bet and a pick to win the conference. 

Find win totals for each team in the ACC here as well as odds to win the conference here!

ACC Season Preview and Best Bets

SMU OVER 8 Wins (-125, FanDuel Sportsbook)

SMU makes the jump to the ACC this season after winning the conference title in the AAC last season. 

The Mustangs took a big step forward under head coach Rhett Lashlee in 2023, a team that bolsters a ton of former Power Five talent that transferred in and a promising quarterback in Preston Stone, who passed for 3,197 yards and 28 passing touchdowns and six interceptions before suffering a season-ending leg injury in November. 

This season, SMU ranks ninth in the country in returning production for a team that checked in 21st in the country in EPA/Play and should have Stone back for Week 1, in addition to backup Kevin Jennings who led the team to an AAC title win. 

While the team has question marks on the offensive line, the unit does return its top seven pass catchers as well as veteran running back Jaylan Knighton. 

On defense, the unit was sixth in EPA/Play and despite a jump in competition, should be rock solid yet again with five of seven guys that had at least three sacks returning as well as Texas A&M transfer Deuce Harmon and Miami import Jahfari Harvey.

Even if there is a dip in production given the jump from an AAC schedule to ACC play, the Mustangs are an ACC title contender this season, due in large part to the schedule. 

SMU is expected to be favored in 10 (!) games in 2024 with the only two teams projected to win eight or more games being Florida State at home and at Louisville.

The Mustangs have enough high-end talent to offset the jump to the Power Four level, and the schedule to threaten double-digit regular season wins. 

Louisville UNDER 8.5 Wins (-135, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Louisville thrived on an easy schedule last season. The team won 10 regular season games against one of the softer sets of opponents, going 5-1 in one-score games. 

First-year head coach Jeff Brohm hit a home run in his return to his alma mater, but can he follow it up with a ton of turnover? 

The Cardinals rank outside the top 100 in returning production on offense this season, so it’s tough to expect that the team will follow up its top 20 EPA/Play mark with a new quarterback and need to replace its top running back and wide receiver. 

Brohm did do work in the transfer portal to help offset some losses, including landing former blue-chip recruit Tyler Shough, who has only made 13 starts across four seasons, and wide receivers Ja’Corey Brooks from Alabama and Caullin Lacy from South Alabama, who had 1,316 yards on 91 catches last season. 

However, I’m skeptical. There is zero depth behind Shough, who hasn’t been able to stay healthy for a season, and the team loses three starters, including ACC’s best center in Bryan Hudson.

The defense does have plenty back on a unit that has an elite defensive line that ranked 12th in EPA/Play and 29th in tackles for loss, headlined by Ashton Gillotte, who had 11 sacks. 

However, with a win total this high, there isn’t much margin for error for a team that will look fairly different than last season. 

The Cards will travel to Notre Dame, Clemson, and Kentucky while also hosting SMU and Miami. Further, in the middle of the season, the team plays seven straight games that include four road trips and a short rest game against Boston College sandwiched between the home game against Miami and the road trip to Clemson. 

I’m banking on some natural regression for Brohm in his second year, who typically does better as a hunter not as the hunted. 

ACC Dark Horse: Virginia Tech (+1000, FD)

Considering I discussed SMU at length above, I’ll mention Virginia Tech’s high ceiling in 2024. 

A lot of the team’s hype lies with the development of Kyron Drones. The Baylor transfer wasn’t even the Week 1 starter last season but took over early on and proceeded to total 22 touchdowns with only three interceptions. 

Drones stands 6’2”, 231 pounds, and is a terror to deal with in the open field when he uses his legs and now he gets a full offseason as QB1 for the Hokies. 

Further, Va. Tech will look to continue building an elite defense under head coach Brent Pry as the defensive line tallied the eighth-most sacks in the country last season (38), and ranked 31st in yards per play allowed. That unit returns the 13th most production in the nation on defense, which pales in comparison to the offensive side of the ball that ranks second and added the likes of Duke defensive lineman Aeneas Peebles. 

With so much back on a team that closed the season 4-2 and with a bowl game victory, there’s a lot of excitement around the Hokies.

Not only will the team be very good, but Virginia Tech will benefit from a relatively easy schedule that can yield a very good record. The team will travel to Miami in Week 5 on Friday and host Clemson in Week 11, the only two times the group will be an underdog this season. 

This is the perfect storm for the Hokies to return to ACC prominence, similar to how Louisville took advantage of an easy schedule in 2023. 

ACC Best Bet: Clemson (+400, FD)

This is the lowest Clemson has been rated in several years, a sign that the market is catching on to a potentially declining Tigers program as head coach Dabo Swinney’s reluctance to embrace the transfer portal is starting to affect the team’s upside. The Tigers didn’t take a player in the transfer portal this season. 

However, I’m willing to buy low on Clemson given the talent already on hand. 

Given that the ACC may be vulnerable at the top, the favorite Florida State is replacing double-digit NFL Draft picks in 2024, Clemson may thrive on its talent in the fold, especially with youngsters on the defensive end such as Peter Woods and Aveion Terrell. 

While Clemson “failed” in 2023 with a struggling offense, should we give the team a mulligan? 

Cade Klubnik was a disaster in the first year of Tigers’ offensive coordinator Garrett Riley’s regime, but Riley entered late in the offseason after TCU went to the National Championship, possibly limiting his ability to grasp the system. 

Klubnik only completed 62% of his passes with 19 turnover-worthy plays to 11 big-time throws, per Pro Football Focus. However, this is still a five-star recruit with a talented running back Phil Mafah next to him in the backfield. With the hopes that the pass-catching group improves amidst better health for the likes of Tyler Brown, there’s a chance there is a year two bump from Clemson after finishing 91st in EPA/Play and yards per play. 

Meanwhile, the defense should remain elite in 2024. Despite ranking outside the top 90 in returning production, the unit was top 10 in EPA/Play and has been at the top of the nation for the better part of a decade. I’ll bank on the system outlasting last season’s departing production. 

I’m willing to bet on Clemson to bounce back after falling way short of expectations. While it may not be a true National Championship contender, in a down ACC, I’ll trust the Tigers to return to the top as its odds continue to drift further away from Florida State, who have plenty of questions to answer as well. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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