Aces vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for WNBA Semifinals Game 1

Can the Aces cover as road underdogs?

Las Vegas Aces guard Chelsea Gray. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty open up one of the most exciting WNBA semifinal series in recent memory on Sunday afternoon.

The Liberty, the favorite to win the WNBA Finals, have home court in this series, but the Aces come into this matchup with the No. 2 odds to win it all. 

Las Vegas is looking to win a third straight title, but this year’s New York team may be the toughest test it has faced. After meeting in the Finals last season where the Aces got the better of the Liberty, New York dominated the 2024 regular season, going 32-8 and a perfect 3-0 against Las Vegas.

Oddsmakers have the Liberty favored in Game 1, but how should we bet on it?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch and my prediction for this matchup. 

Aces vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Aces +4 (-108)
• Liberty -4 (-112)

Moneyline

• Aces: +160
• Liberty: -192

Total

• 163.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Aces vs. Liberty How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 29
• Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Barclays Center
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Series: Tied 0-0

Aces vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Aces Injury Report

• None to report

Liberty Injury Report

• None to report

Aces vs. Liberty Key Players to Watch

Las Vegas Aces

Chelsea Gray: After missing the beginning of the 2024 season with an injury, Gray returned to the Aces and helped them close out the regular season strong and earn the No. 4 seed. In the playoffs, the star point guard is averaging 14.0 points, 3.0 rebounds and 8.0 assists per game while shooting 3-for-8 from beyond the arc. 

New York Liberty

Breanna Stewart: Stewart didn’t dominate the Aces in the regular season, but she did score 21 points on 8-of-14 shooting in the last meeting between these teams. The 2023 WNBA MVP, Stewart may need to shoot better than she did in the first round against Atlanta (13-for-32) for the Liberty to advance to the Finals. 

Aces vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

The Aces failed to win a single matchup between these teams in the regular season, losing by eight and 12 at home before dropping the last meeting by four in New York – even though A’ja Wilson sat out. 

That could be a positive sign for the Aces, as Wilson – the league MVP – could swing this game in their favor on Sunday.

The Liberty have been the best team in the league all season long, but they can’t seem to cover the spread at home, going just 6-17 ATS there.

That’s not a good sign in what should be a pretty even matchup with the Aces back at full strength. Las Vegas is 9-10-1 against the spread on the road, and it closed out the regular season strong, winning five games in a row and nine of its last 10.

While the Liberty have the star power – Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Sabrina Ionescu – to win this series, I’m not sold on them running away with it. 

Over the final 15 games of the regular season, the Liberty had the best net rating in the WNBA at +11.4, but the Aces weren’t too far off at +7.6. With Wilson back, I think we’ll see a similar matchup to the last time these teams faced off at Barclays Center. 

Give me the Aces to keep this game close and give us an entertaining Game 1. 

Pick: Aces +4 (-108)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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