Aces vs. Liberty WNBA Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Sunday, Sept. 8 (Bet on NY)

Can the Liberty cover the spread at home?

New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The best matchup in the WNBA on Sunday is on ESPN, as the top two teams in the WNBA championship odds – the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty – face off for the third and final time in the regular season. 

New York took both of the first two meetings between these teams, winning outright as an underdog in Las Vegas by eight and 12 points. Now, it finds itself as a favorite at home as it looks to build the lead on the No. 1 seed in the W.

New York is three games up on the Minnesota Lynx entering Sunday’s action, while the Aces are the No. 4  seed, six games out of first.

Las Vegas has not been an underdog in a single game this season until today, making this an interesting game to bet on. 

Let’s break down the odds, key players to watch and my prediction for Sunday’s contest. 

Aces vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Aces +5 (-110)
• Liberty -5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Aces: +180
• Liberty: -218

Total

• 169 (Over -108/Under -112)

Aces vs. Liberty How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 8
• Time: 4:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Barclays Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Aces record: 22-12
• Liberty record: 28-6

Aces vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Aces Injury Report

• None to report

Liberty Injury Report

• None to report

Aces vs. Liberty Key Players to Watch

Las Vegas Aces

Kelsey Plum: Plum was massive on Friday night in the Aces’ road win over the Connecticut Sun, scoring 27 points on 8-of-15 shooting while adding five rebounds. Plum was held to 13 points in the last meeting between these teams, but she did have 22 points in the first matchup. Can she have a big scoring game to help the Aces pull off an upset?  

New York Liberty

Sabrina Ionescu: Having arguably her best scoring season of her career, Ionescu is fresh off of a 17-point game in a win over the Seattle Storm on Sept. 5. The star guard is averaging 19.4 points (a career-high) 4.6 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game this season. She had 23 points the last time these teams met in Vegas. 

Aces vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

All season long, the Liberty have struggled against the spread at home (5-13), and I’ve been fading them as major favorites.

That ends today.

New York has the No. 1 net rating in the WNBA this season and over the last 10 games, and it has shown on the road that it can hold on against this Las Vegas squad. Even though the Aces are the defending champs, they have taken a step back defensively in 2024.

Not only that, but they haven’t come close to covering against the Liberty in 2024. Sure, the Aces haven’t gotten points in a single game this season, but they’re also just 14-20 ATS overall and 6-10 ATS on the road. 

These are the two best offenses in the WNBA, but the Liberty (No. 2 in defensive rating) have been nearly six points per 100 possessions better than the Aces on the other end of the floor. That should be the difference on Sunday.

Pick: Liberty -5 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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