AFC Playoff Odds: Chiefs vs. Bills, Who Will Get No. 1 Seed?

Iain MacMillan | 3 Hours Ago

The Chiefs remain betting favorites to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC. / Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As spots in the NFL Playoffs begin to be locked up, it's time to turn our attention to the top of each conference and the race for the No. 1 seed. Not too long ago, the top two spots in the conference got a BYE week in the opening round of the postseason. Now, it's only the No. 1 seed that gets that privilege along with home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

At the end of Week 13, the Chiefs still hold the No. 1 seed at 11-1, but can the Bills, or another team, catch them and claim the top spot for themselves? Let's find out what the oddsmakers think.

AFC No. 1 Seed Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Chiefs -150
• Bills +140
• Steelers +1500

Chiefs Favored to be No. 1 Seed in AFC Playoffs

As you'd expect the Chiefs are currently the betting favorites at -150 to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but it's not by as wide of a margin and Kansas City fans would hope. If you translate -150 odds to implied probability, the Chiefs have a 60% chance of clinching that spot. A Week 11 loss to the Bills significantly affected their chances as Buffalo now holds the tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record.

Regardless, the Chiefs remain in control of their own destiny and will slide into the No. 1 seed if they win out. Along with that, for every time the Bills lose, the Chiefs will be able to afford one loss themselves.

It's worth noting the Bills have the easier remaining schedule based on opponent win percentage at .419, but part of that schedule is a meeting with the Super Bowl favorites, the Detroit Lions. The win percentage of the Chiefs' remaining opponents sits at .583 with tough games against the likes of the Chargers, Texans, Steelers, and Broncos.

The Steelers are the only other team with realistic odds to claim the top spot in the conference. They sit two games back from the Chiefs at 9-3 but would have to beat some tough opponents to close the season including Kansas City themselves, the Eagles, and the Ravens. At+1500, they have an implied probability of 6.25% of pulling it off.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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