AL and NL MVP Odds Update: Do Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani Have MVP Locked Up?

Reed Wallach | Aug 13, 2024

Aug 11, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge (99) hits a solo home run during the seventh inning against the Texas Rangers at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Are the two MVP races over in the middle of August? Oddsmakers seem to think so.

Both Aaron Judge of the Yankees and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers are more than -1000 to win MVP in their respective league ahead of action on Aug. 12. The two power hitters on World Series contenders have been unbelievable at the dish this season, leading in home runs in each respective league.

Both sluggers are overwhelming favorites to add to their MVP trophy cases, here are the updated odds.

Have Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani already locked up the AL and NL MVP awards?

The odds say yes. pic.twitter.com/znpzB6hiDw

— SI Betting (@SI_Betting) August 12, 2024

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

2024 American League MVP Odds

• Aaron Judge: -1500
• Bobby Witt Jr.: +650

Judge's -1500 odds translates to an implied probability of 93.75%, viewed as a near certainty to win the award.

There are very few offensive metrics that Judge doesn't lead in. He leads the big leagues in home runs with 42 dingers as well as 106 runs batted in and has a slugging percentage of .699 and an OPS of 1.160. He also has begun to been intentionally walked more often, leading the bigs with 13.

It appears that the Yankees outfielder is primed to win the award as long as he stays healthy, despite the best efforts from Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to make this a race.

Witt is hitting .459 since the All-Star break with an .812 slugging percentage while playing a premium position at shortstop. Even so, he is given a 13% chance against the heavily favored Judge, who oddsmakers are juicing out for sports bettors.

2024 National League MVP Odds

• Shohei Ohtani: -1300
• Ketel Marte: +650

Ohtani has been amazing in his first season with the Dodgers, playing only designated hitter for the World Series contenders. The -1300 odds translates to an implied probability of 92.86%.

He leads the NL with 35 home runs with an OPS of 1.001 while swiping 32 bags this season as he is the most reliable threat in the Dodgers loaded offense.

However, can Ketel Marte run him down?

The Diamondbacks slugger is hitting .329 since the All-Star break with 11 home runs as the D-Backs look to be back in contention for the NL Pennant for a second straight season. He has the season long numbers that rivals Ohtani, 30 home runs and 81 RBI's that is only two short of is Dodgers peer, but will the fact that Arizona is still three-and-a-half back of LA hold him back?

Ohtani's numbers are gaudy, but Marte does appear to be closer than the difference between Judge and Witt, as Judge is putting up truly historic numbers. If Marte has another big week or so, the odds may continue shrink in the NL MVP market.

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