AL MVP Odds at All-Star Break Indicate Aaron Judge Well on Way to Second Most Valuable Player Nod

Reed Wallach | Jul 16, 2024

Jun 15, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge (99) takes the field prior to a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports / Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

As we hit the unofficial halfway point of the 2024 Major League Baseball season, let’s take a look at the MVP odds in the American League. 

Aaron Judge is well on his way to his second MVP award behind a torrid stretch that has him at the top of nearly all major hitting statistics while playing for a World Series-contending Yankees team. 

Per oddsmakers, Judge is a near certainty to win, so lets dive in and see who is chasing him. 

2024 AL MVP Odds

• Aaron Judge: -370
• Gunnar Henderson: +370
• Juan Soto: +1800
• Bobby Witt Jr.: +2000

Will Anybody Catch Aaron Judge? 

Judge has separated from the pack, posting another monster-hitting season that includes a .306 batting average with a .679 slugging percentage to go with an MLB-high 34 home runs and 85 RBIs. 

The current odds at FanDuel Sportsbook translate to a 79.12% implied probability that he will win his second MVP award. 

While his teammate Juan Soto lingers as the longshot third choice in a great first season in the Bronx, its Gunnar Henderson who appears to be the only challenger to Judge. 

The 2023 AL Rookie of the Year, Henderson has emerged as the key piece to the first-place Orioles lineup, hitting .286 with 28 home runs and 63 runs batted in. While he plays a premium position as a shortstop while Judge spends most of his time in the right field, the gap in hitting is proving to be nearly impossible in the eyes of oddsmakers. 

It’s worth noting that Baltimore has surpassed New York in the AL East race after the Yankees got off to a scorching start. The Yankees are 18-21 since June 1st, but Judge has continued to produce at an MVP level, but can team success play a factor down the stretch in what’s becoming arguably the most heated race in baseball? 

Oddsmakers have taken a stance on Judge, let’s see how the final two-plus months shake out in a two-man race. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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