AL MVP Odds: Oddsmakers Suggesting Aaron Judge Has Locked Up Award

Aaron Judge continues to dominate Major League Baseball, and oddsmakers view him as a lock to win the AL MVP award.

New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge. / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Aaron Judge's 2024 season is reaching unprecedented heights, and oddsmakers are taking notice.

The New York Yankees slugger hit his 51st home run on Sunday, raising his season-long slash line to .333/.465/.736. The AL leaders in homers (51), runs batted in (122), OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+ and total bases is the clear-cut favorite to win the AL MVP, as he attempts to become the first player since Barry Bonds to finish a season with an OPS over 1.200.

Aaron Judge has an OPS of 1.201 this season. 😮

No qualified MLB hitter has had an OPS over 1.200 for a full season since Barry Bonds in 2004. pic.twitter.com/PyrcSQDCWo

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) August 26, 2024

Oddsmakers have set Judge at -3000 odds to win the award, well ahead of anyone else in the field, Based on implied probability, Judge has a 96.77 percent chance to capture his second league MVP of his career.

AL MVP Odds for 2024 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Aaron Judge: -3000
• Bobby Witt Jr.: +1100
• Juan Soto: +5000
• Gunnar Henderson: +5000
• Jose Ramirez: +10000
• Yordan Alvarez: +15000
• Rafael Devers: +15000

Even though he got off to a slow start in April, Judge has been virtually unstoppable since May.

Since May 1, Judge is hitting .376 with 45 home runs and 104 runs batted in (98 games). Most players would love that stat line in a full season -- Judge has done it in less than 100 games.

Even his teammates are shocked at the pace he's on, as there's a real chance the Yankees slugger breaks his own AL home run record for a single season (62).

Giancarlo Stanton was asked how hard it is to hit a home run every nine at-bats like Aaron Judge currently is:

"Never been done, ever. So that's how hard it is." pic.twitter.com/9vZfCU9ctn

— Yankees Videos (@snyyankees) August 25, 2024

Not only is Judge having a historic season, but it's led to team success as well. New York has the best record in the American League, and it currently holds a 1.5-game lead on the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East division.

Judge's WAR of 9.4 is the best in baseball, and it's hard to see a scenario where anyone can catch him in this MVP race.

Can Anyone Catch Aaron Judge to Win AL MVP?

At this stage in the season, it appears Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is the only player with a chance (and it's slim) to catch Aaron Judge for the AL MVP award.

Witt is having a great season -- he's hitting .347 and has an 8.4 WAR -- but he can't hold a candle to Judge's power numbers. Judge's OPS+ of 230 is 55 points higher than Witt (175) at this stage in the season.

Plus, the Royals aren't even guaranteed to end up in a playoff spot, as they currently hold the final wild card spot in the American League.

Unless Judge goes down with an injury (and even that may not be enough), it's hard to see anyone else taking home this award.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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