Alabama College Football Playoff Odds: Crimson Tide's Odds Surge to Make CFP Ahead of Conference Championship Games

Reed Wallach | 8 Hours Ago

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) runs the ball as Auburn Tigers take on Alabama Crimson Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. Alabama Crimson Tide defeated Auburn Tigers 28-14. / Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Alabama Crimson Tide’s regular season is done, and its ability to control its own destiny to the College Football Playoff is zero. 

However, sports bettors are still banking on Alabama to make the College Football Playoff. Ahead of Tuesday’s updated rankings from the College Football Playoff Selection Committee, Alabama is outside the field, but given what may happen in the Conference Championship games this weekend, the team may be positioned to jump into the Top 12. 

Alabama, who opened as a near pick ‘em at FanDuel Sportsbook to make the College Football Playoff, is now listed -192 to make the field, which translates to a 65.75% chance.

**Update**: Alabama's odds exploded to -400 (80% implied probability) after the Crimson Tide were ranked 12th in the updated College Football Playoff ranking on Tuesday, December 3rd.

Alabama’s Odds to Make the College Football Playoff

Yes: -400

No: +285

Alabama’s Odds to Make CFP Explode Leading to Conference Championship Weekend

The Crimson Tide were listed No. 13 in last week’s College Football Playoff ranking after losing at Oklahoma, but bounced back by beating Auburn in the Iron Bowl. This week, the team leaped Miami and Clemson to be ranked No. 12.

It’s what happened across the country that paved the way for the Crimson Tide to get into the CFP mix yet again after seemingly being shut out with a third loss in the regular season. 

With the likes of Miami and Clemson losing, two teams ahead of Kalen DeBoer’s group, the contenders for the final College Football Playoff spot has cleared up. 

The likely group of teams in the CFP are as follows: 

• 4 Big Ten teams: Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana
• 3 SEC teams: Georgia, Texas, Tennessee
• 1 Big 12 Championship Game winner
• 1 ACC Championship Game winner
• Notre Dame
• Group of Five entrant

That’s 11 teams. 

The tricky part to this is what happens in the ACC Championship Game. SMU is currently in the field and favored to win the title game against Clemson, who now must win to make the CFP after losing at home to South Carolina last week. 

If SMU wins, the conversation will surround Alabama, South Carolina (who Alabama beat already), Ole Miss (who was ranked behind Alabama last week) and Miami (who lacks a quality win to hold up to the Crimson Tide). 

Now, if Clemson wins in a minor upset, the conversation will surround can a two loss SMU, without a quality win, make the postseason after losing in the ACC Championship Game? 

Bettors are making it clear that there is interest in Alabama making the CFP regardless of who wins the ACC, but there is going to be a heated conversation around that 12th spot, and it will only intensify if SMU loses.  

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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