Alabama vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, January 18th

Reed Wallach | Jan 18, 2025

Jan 14, 2025; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama guard Mark Sears (1) drives along the baseline with Ole Miss guard Sean Pedulla (3) defending at Coleman Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News / Gary Cosby Jr. / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Alabama and Kentucky meet on Saturday afternoon in Lexington in one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the SEC season. 

Both Alabama and Kentucky play high-level offensive basketball, each inside of KenPom’s top 10 in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency metric, making for one of the highest totals of the entire college basketball season. 

Is it justified? Is the total too high? Let’s break it down with a look at the odds, key players and our best bet. 

Alabama vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Alabama: +3.5 (-120)
• Kentucky: -3.5 (-102)

Moneyline

• Alabama: +132
• Kentucky: -160

Total: 178.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Alabama vs. Kentucky How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, January 18th
• Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
• Venue: Rupp Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Alabama Record: 14-3
• Kentucky Record: 14-3

Alabama vs. Kentucky Key Players to Watch 

Alabama

Mark Sears: The Crimson Tide go as the team’s lead guard goes. In three losses this season, Sears had three of his four lowest scoring games of the season. While his individual efficiency is down after last season, Sears still is the engine behind one of the best offenses in college basketball. 

Kentucky

Lamont Butler: Butler played the role of facilitator in the Wildcats blowout win against Texas A&M, only scoring six points with zero field goals made, but dished out seven assists and generated three steals. Butler will look to find his footing in a likely high scoring affair on Saturday. He is shooting 53% from the field this season. 

Alabama vs. Kentucky Prediction and Pick

The total is so high, yet I can’t bet anything in this game but the over. 

Kentucky’s SEC games scoring totals: 206, 151, 185, 150. 

Alabama’s SEC game scoring totals: 186, 156, 182, 138

Both teams are fueled by its offense, each top 50 in effective field goal percentage and adept at scoring from all three levels. While Alabama’s three-point shooting has been a concern all season – the Crimson Tide are 252nd in three-point percentage this season – the team makes up for it with the third best two-point percentage in the country. That’s huge against UK who is 218th in two-point field goal percentage defense. 

Kentucky is outside the top 300 in turnover percentage, so Alabama should face little resistance from running its preferred frenetic pace. However, the Crimson Tide defense turns opponents over at an even lower rate, 344th in TO%, which is going to allow Kenutcky’s elite offense to operate at an incredibly high level on its home court. 

These are two of the best offenses in the country, and I’m not trusting either defense to get the stops, even with an incredibly high total. 

PICK: OVER 179.5

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.