Alabama vs. LSU Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 11

Reed Wallach | Nov 6, 2024

Oct 26, 2024; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) carries the ball against Missouri Tigers safety Sidney Williams (3) during the third quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Will McLelland-Imagn Images / Will McLelland-Imagn Images

Alabama and LSU meet in what could be classified as a win-or-go-home scenario for each team in terms of making the College Football Playoff. 

Each team enters with two losses and a third loss makes the path to the CFP miniscule. Both Alabama and LSU are off of a BYE week to prepare for this matchup in Death Valley, and in a CFP-like environment, we are in for an instant classic. 

Here’s how to bet the marquee matchup of Week 11. 

Alabama vs. LSU Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Alabama: -2.5 (-120)
• LSU +2.5 (+100)

Moneyline

• Alabama: -138
• LSU: +116

Total: 58.5 (Over -106/Under -114)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Alabama vs. LSU How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, November 9th
• Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
• Venue: Tiger Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Alabama Record: 6-2
• LSU Record: 6-2

Alabama vs. LSU Key Players to Watch

Alabama

Jalen Milroe: Milroe has been up-and-down this season. He has had incredible efforts against the likes of Georgia, where he had nearly 500 yards of total offense, and he has struggled in big games like at Tennessee when he had two interceptions and only 11 rushing yards. With a BYE to prepare, can Milroe give LSU’s defense fits with his dual-threat capability and ability to stretch the field with his arm?

LSU

Garrett Nussmeier: Nussmeier had a tale of two halves in LSU’s last game, a loss at Texas A&M. The quarterback continues to showcase a big arm and a great ability at avoiding sacks, but he had some back-breaking turnovers that cost the Tigers the game on the road. He will face a suspect Alabama secondary that hasn’t stopped many passing games this season, can Nussmeier torch another SEC defense? 

Alabama vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

This has all the makings of a high scoring affair. 

With a week to prepare, I trust Kalen DeBoer to unlock Jalen Milroe in a similar way that we saw him torch the Georgia defense for much of that matchup. While much has been made about the progress of the LSU defense, we saw the group struggle to contain dual-threat quarterback Marcell Reed, and Milroe is a far more advanced version of that. 

The LSU defense is below average in terms of EPA/Play, 78th in the country, and are 123rd in explosive rush rate. Without the ability to put a true quarterback spy on Milroe, I expect DeBoer to unleash him in the run game that will later open up deep passes for the likes of Ryan Williams. 

Meanwhile, the Alabama defense continues to have issues in the secondary. The group is 116th in explosive pass defense, which is impactful against an elite LSU passing game that throws the ball at a top 5 rate in the country. 

The Tigers don’t trust the run game enough to lean on it, so this has become a pass-only offense. However, Alabama’s defense has struggled to slow down the opposition through the air. The team is 54th in sacks, so I believe that LSU can hold up fine in pass protection at home despite being down offensive lineman Garret Dellinger for this one. 

I think both offenses have the leg up in this one, and we are in for plenty of points. 

PICK: OVER 58.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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